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2024 has been a stellar year so far for stocks, but when you look at the concentration of returns, it can be a little startling. Apollo Global Management, Inc. 's Torsten Slok just published a chart on how 35% of the jump in the S&P 500’s market cap since the beginning of 2024 has come from just a single stock: Nvidia.
Jenna Dagenhart recently spoke with O'Leary Ventures Chairman Kevin O'Leary during the Asset TV Equities Summit about whether the extreme concentration in markets concerns him. Here's what he had to say:
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“The concentration is really getting geometric but so are the earnings. The granddaddy of concentration and PE expansion is Nvidia obviously, but it doesn’t look like there is going to be any slowdown there because AI is getting integrated into all 11 sectors of the economy. And so it is going to be driven by the picks and shovels which Nvidia represents and the moat around Nvidia and its firmware. The one interesting play around this that I have been getting involved in lately is I totally understand that you can’t have AI without data centers. And data centers are very expensive real estate projects and they require power and fiber and the lead tenants in these deals are Microsoft, Google, Amazon.”
Mr. Wonderful also shared his thoughts on markets and one area to keep an eye on, given all the unknowns surrounding Fed cuts, inflation, the election, etc.
“You’re right there is a lot of uncertainty. The numbers seem to indicate for a soft landing, which is a good thing. The pig in the python, so to speak, which I am starting to focus on quite a bit is the $1 trillion worth of debt refinancing on commercial real estate which is going to go rolling through the economy over the next 36 months.”
Hightower Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Stephanie Link joined the Asset TV Equities Summit as well and shared where she is seeing opportunities outside of AI .
“AI and cybersecurity are clearly where the spend is happening within organizations, but that being said there are these other themes. There are these industrials that are doing quite well, and I think there is a lot of skepticism within that whole electrification kind of theme, and it may take a long time to play itself out but I do think it is real. As I mentioned I do like housing. It’s going to be bumpy and volatile for sure but I do think that is a place, especially given the valuations, that is very attractive, and again the supply-demand is really favorable. And I wouldn’t rule the consumer out, Jenna. Everybody wants to rule the consumer out. One thing that I do worry about in addition to a lot of other things is the job market. It’s super strong right now, so that’s what I’m watching. I’m not so much worried I guess, but I’m just watching it, and I think that will be a tell for the consumer. But the consumer right now, they have jobs, they have wage growth, home prices are actually higher, equity markets are higher, and we are a nation of spenders, so I still like the discretionary sector as well.”
Finally, CFRA Research Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall reflected on the equity market’s remarkable performance this year and what it means for investors going forward if history is any guide.
“Well Jenna it has been a very good year so far for the indices. The S&P recovered all that it lost in the 2022 bear market on January 19th and then in the middle of May, it recovered everything that it lost during the most recent 5.5% pullback. Looking at history, and there have been 35 pullbacks or declines of 5-10% since 1990, the market basically says ‘let your winners ride’ because over the coming three to four months, the market should continue to increase in price, gaining about 8.5%, so that really would imply that things look like they could be fairly good up until that more challenging 3rd quarter of the calendar year.”
Consultant
5 个月Nice job Jenna Dagenhart, CFA