JBP's US elections analysis

I attended a dinner with a former high ranking US diplomat last night and was given an interesting briefing I wanted to share on the US election and the impact the outcome might have on businesses here in the UK.

Before we start, it is important to say there is a huge amount to discuss, far more than is possible in a single piece. We are very happy to arrange more detailed briefings with clients if that would be of interest.?

What we can do here is to look briefly at the key themes which flowed through last night, both the remarks themselves, and the questions which came afterwards along with some analysis. Firstly, a huge number of American voters have already voted, with more than 78 million ballots cast early.? In previous elections, such as the 1984 contest, it has not been in any doubt who would win (in that case, my favourite President, Ronald Reagan) but it is clear that is not happening this time.

This will be close, not only that, but the result either way is likely to be contested in some way, possibly through the courts.? In fact, the concern is so great that the casting of the Electoral College votes has been declared a national security event for the first time in history and so will be led by the US Secret Service.? This shows the huge scale of worry about violence or intimidation.

For those unaware, if the Electoral College cannot reach a decision, the Congress, which meets in joint session on 6?January to count the electoral votes, would take over the process of electing a President and Vice President.

?There is also no Constitutional requirement or federal law which requires electors to vote according to the results of their popular votes in their states.? Some states do have individual laws which require them to do so or face fines or disqualification for being so-called 'faithless electors'. This happens rarely and since the foundation of the USA, more than 99% of the electors have voted as pledged.

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Will this change this time?? We are certainly in uncharted waters for the level of partisanship, division and discord across the US.? This makes the 76 days between the election and inauguration potentially uncertain and explosive. The nightmare scenario for many in the US would be for Trump to win the popular vote and Harris to win the Electoral College.? Just think of the controversy around the 2000 election of George W Bush and multiply it several times over.

Ultimately, I suspect (and hope) that the significant preparations will mean the process will actually all go very smoothly.

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The other really key question which went through the mill last night is, who would make the better President for the US, the UK and the world?

The answer here isn't necessarily the same for all three and it will depend on what your priorities are.? For US citizens, polling has shown that the two biggest issues are immigration and the economy.

It is likely that a Harris Presidency would continue many of the policies of the Biden era and would not be significantly harder on migration, particularly through the southern border.? At the same time, it is likely that there would be initial economic stability if the Democrats hold the White House.

In the longer term, my contact on Wall Street tells me that the markets are 'pricing in' greater economic growth with Trump than with Harris. Whether Trump follows a path which secures this or decides to act in an entirely different manner is impossible to predict.

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For the world, Trump will certainly end conflicts involving the US.? Apart from his isolationist tendencies, we are told that he is desperate?to pitch for a Nobel Peace Prize, primarily because one was awarded to President Obama in 2009.? The question of whether this 'ending' of conflict would be done in a way which benefits both sides and the wider world is again impossible to predict.? I know that the EU and UK Governments are very concerned about what will happen in Ukraine if Trump were to re-take the mantle of Leader of the Free-World.

Unlike last time, a Trump Presidency would suffer from a lack of experience, with his campaign finding it very difficult to find senior people willing to serve in his White House.? In fact, a large number of senior Republicans have ruled out joining the administration and even members of Trump's own family who were key last time have declined to participate.? In these circumstances, supporters like Elon Musk may find themselves with some kind of advisory role in a relatively 'greenhorn' administration.

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Finally, there is the question of who would be best for the UK.??

Interestingly, the feeling here in Westminster and in Washington is that both will be positive.? It will certainly be more difficult for Starmer and Labour if it is Trump, but he is a known anglophile with significant business interests in the UK. Harris is a bit more of an unknown quantity but would be entering a very uncertain and dangerous world, she will be looking for dependable allies and will certainly have a great deal in common with the new Government in Westminster.?

One thing is clear, whoever wins this week, the next four years will be incredibly interesting for US-UK relations.