Japan's Rearmament May Be Inevitable
David Sehyeon Baek
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Japan Will Likely View Rearmament as a Strategic Necessity
Japan’s post-war pacifist identity, enshrined in its Constitution’s Article 9, has been a cornerstone of its national policy for over seven decades. This clause renounces war and prohibits the maintenance of traditional military forces. However, the geopolitical realities of the 21st century are forcing Japan to confront a painful dilemma: whether to maintain its pacifist stance or adapt to escalating regional security threats. Increasingly, it appears that Japan will have no choice but to rearm itself, whether it likes it or not. This article does not support Japan's rearmament; however, it seems increasingly likely that Japan may pursue this path as geopolitical situations worsen.
The Eroding Security Environment
North Korea’s Provocations
North Korea’s relentless pursuit of nuclear weapons and its frequent missile tests present a direct and immediate threat to Japan’s national security. Pyongyang has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to launch missiles capable of reaching Japanese territory, creating a constant sense of vulnerability. The unpredictability of the North Korean regime, coupled with its willingness to use nuclear blackmail, leaves Japan with little room to rely solely on diplomatic measures.
China’s Military Expansion
China’s growing assertiveness, particularly in the East China Sea and around the Senkaku Islands, has significantly heightened tensions with Japan. Beijing’s rapid military modernization and its aggressive actions in the South China Sea signal a broader regional ambition that could jeopardize Japan’s territorial integrity and economic interests. For Japan, these developments highlight the necessity of a credible military deterrent.
Russia’s Renewed Hostility
Although often overshadowed by North Korea and China, Russia remains a strategic concern for Japan, particularly over the unresolved Northern Territories dispute. With Russia’s increasing military activities in the Pacific, including joint drills with China, Japan faces a multifaceted security threat that complicates its strategic calculations.
Limitations of the U.S. Nuclear Umbrella
Japan has long depended on the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty and the American nuclear umbrella for its defense. While this alliance remains a cornerstone of Japan’s security strategy, there are growing concerns about the reliability of U.S. commitments amid shifting global dynamics. The possibility of a less predictable U.S. foreign policy raises doubts about whether Japan can indefinitely rely on external protection.
Furthermore, the U.S. focus on countering China globally, along with its commitments in Europe and the Middle East, may overstretch its military capabilities, leaving Japan to shoulder a greater share of its own defense. As seen in the Ukraine-Russia war, there is no guarantee that the U.S. will intervene and help Japan in a timely manner should a similar crisis arise, even with the U.S. nuclear umbrella in place. This uncertainty adds another layer of urgency to Japan’s need to bolster its own defense capabilities.
In June 2019, Donald Trump criticized the U.S.-Japan security treaty as unfair, arguing that it obligates the United States to defend Japan if attacked, while Japan is not similarly required to defend the U.S. He expressed frustration over the perceived one-sided nature of the agreement, suggesting that American officials who negotiated the treaty made a poor deal. This perspective, however, overlooks the strategic advantages the U.S. gains from the alliance, such as access to military bases in Japan, which enhance American influence and operational reach in the Asia-Pacific region. Additionally, Japan hosts approximately 54,000 U.S. military personnel and contributes billions of dollars annually to support their presence, further solidifying the bilateral relationship.
Domestic Debates and Shifting Public Opinion
Although Japan’s pacifist constitution has widespread support, public sentiment is gradually shifting in favor of rearmament. Younger generations, in particular, are more open to constitutional revision in light of increasing regional threats. Politicians, especially from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), have called for enhanced defense capabilities, including the acquisition of counter-strike options and longer-range missiles.
The former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's government approved record-high defense budgets during his term, signaling a significant departure from Japan's traditional security approach. This shift reflects a growing consensus among policymakers that Japan must take greater responsibility for its own defense.
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The Economic Burden of Rearmament
While enhancing its military capabilities is a strategic necessity, Japan risks placing its economy in a more dire situation by significantly increasing its defense budget. Military expenditures, which are already at record levels, could strain Japan’s finances over the long term. As a country with one of the highest public debt-to-GDP ratios in the world, Japan must carefully balance its security needs with economic sustainability. Allocating more funds to defense could divert resources from critical areas such as infrastructure, healthcare, and social welfare, potentially exacerbating existing economic challenges. This financial burden may become a key point of contention as Japan moves forward with its rearmament plans. It is important to note that this discussion is not about supporting or opposing Japan's rearmament. Rather, judging from the current geopolitical situation, Japan will likely end up rearming itself at the expense of further straining its already worsening economy. Additionally, considering the political systems of its adversaries, countries like China, Russia, and North Korea—which do not have to contend with democratic elections—enjoy relatively stable dictatorial regimes. In contrast, leaders of free democratic countries like Japan must always consider their political positions and worry about elections or public opinion, especially if their economic situation deteriorates.
Moreover, as Japan’s economy deteriorates and immigration increases to address the challenges of low birthrates, depopulation, and an aging society, so-called native Japanese might feel increasingly threatened. This could foster a growing sense of defensiveness and lead to the reinforcement of nationalism over time. Such societal shifts may further influence Japan’s security policies and contribute to the momentum toward rearmament.
The Imperative of Technological Superiority
Modern warfare increasingly relies on cutting-edge technologies, from cyber capabilities to hypersonic weapons. Japan’s economic strength and technological expertise position it well to develop advanced defense systems. However, to keep pace with regional adversaries, Japan must invest heavily in military research and development, which necessitates a re-evaluation of its constitutional constraints.
Japan's Self-Defense Forces
The Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) consist of the Ground, Maritime, and Air branches, collectively responsible for Japan's national defense. Below is an overview of their personnel strength, defense budgets from 2018 to 2024, and key military assets.
Personnel Strength
Annual Defense Budgets (2018-2024)
Key Military Assets
Japan continues to modernize its Self-Defense Forces, focusing on advanced technologies and strategic assets to address evolving security challenges in the region.
Lessons from Global Examples
Countries like Germany and South Korea offer valuable lessons for Japan. Both nations, despite historical constraints, have developed robust military capabilities while maintaining strong alliances with the U.S. Similarly, Japan can pursue a balanced approach, strengthening its Self-Defense Forces (SDF) while adhering to the principles of defensive deterrence.
Constitutional Reform
Ultimately, Japan’s ability to rearm hinges on its willingness to revise Article 9. While constitutional reform is politically sensitive, the growing consensus around enhancing Japan’s military capabilities may make it unavoidable. A revised constitution would provide the legal framework necessary for Japan to build a military force commensurate with the challenges it faces.
Moving Forward
Japan will surely see that Japan’s rearmament is not a question of desire but of necessity. The convergence of regional threats, doubts about the reliability of the U.S. nuclear umbrella, and the imperative to safeguard its sovereignty compel Japan to rethink its security posture. While rearming will require navigating significant political and social challenges, it is becoming increasingly clear that Japan cannot afford to remain unprepared in an era of mounting geopolitical tensions. Once again, whether neighboring countries like it or not, this may be a future they will have to face.