Japan's Nuclear Revival: A Deep Dive into the Energy Strategy Shift

Japan's recent decision to restart its nuclear reactors marks a significant shift in its energy policy, driven by a complex interplay of economic, environmental, and geopolitical factors.

In fact, the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, triggered by a devastating earthquake and tsunami, cast a long shadow over Japan's energy sector. The catastrophe led to the shutdown of all nuclear reactors in the country, prompting a dramatic increase in its reliance on fossil fuels, particularly coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG). As of today, combined, coal and gas account for roughly 64% of Japan's electricity generation.

This dependence on fossil fuel imports has exposed Japan to price volatility, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical risks, particularly in light of the ongoing energy crisis exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. For the coming years, Japan views the geopolitical situation between Taiwan and China with a mix of deep concern and strategic caution. The escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait are seen as a major threat to regional stability and have significant implications for Japan's own security and economic interests.

Furthermore, the increased use of fossil fuels has hindered Japan's efforts to decarbonize its economy and meet its climate commitments. The country's greenhouse gas emissions have risen since the Fukushima disaster, and it currently lags behind other G7 nations in its progress towards decarbonizing its electricity system. According to the think tank E3G , Japan ranks last among G7 countries in this regard. Since 2021, Japanese CO2 emissions have remained the same at app. 1.15 billions tonnes. Current trajectory suggests that Japan needs to significantly ramp up its efforts to achieve meaningful emissions reductions and contribute effectively to global climate action.

The Nuclear Revival

Against this backdrop, Japan's decision to restart its nuclear reactors can be seen as a calculated response to multiple challenges. The government aims to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels, enhance energy security, and lower electricity costs while striving to meet its climate targets. Nuclear power, with its ability to provide baseload electricity without emitting greenhouse gases, is viewed as a key component of this strategy. As of October 24, 2024, there are 10 nuclear reactors currently operating in Japan.

The government's commitment to nuclear energy is evident in its ambitious targets. By 2030, Japan aims to increase the share of nuclear power in its electricity mix to 20-22%, up from less than 10% currently. This would require restarting a significant number of the country's idled reactors, which currently stand at 33 operable units.

Safety First

The restart of nuclear reactors is not without its challenges, particularly in a country still grappling with the trauma of Fukushima. Public concerns about safety remain high, and the government has taken extensive measures to address these concerns and ensure the safe operation of its nuclear facilities.

The Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant, the world's largest, exemplifies this commitment to safety. The plant is located on the coast of the Sea of Japan between Kashiwazaki and Kariwa in Niigata Prefecture. It is operated by TEPCO and used to provide 7.9 GW of power through 7 Advanced Boiling Water Reactors before 2011 Fukushima disaster. Today, only one reactor is in operation. Others will be progressively connected when safety measures will be fully implemented. For instance, it has been equipped with a 15-meter-high tsunami wall to protect it from future natural disasters.

A Pathway to Decarbonization

The revival of nuclear power is expected to bring significant economic and environmental benefits to Japan. Before the Fukushima disaster, nuclear power plants provided a third of the country's electricity. The shutdown of these plants forced Japan to increase imports of fossil fuels, resulting in a substantial financial burden. In 2023, Japan spent an estimated 510 million USD per day on fossil fuel imports.

While nuclear power is a central component of Japan's energy strategy, the government also recognizes the importance of renewable energy sources. Japan aims to increase the share of renewables, including hydroelectric power, from 20% to 36-38% by 2030. This ambition reflects a growing global trend towards decarbonization and the increasing competitiveness of renewable technologies.

Hanna Hakko, an expert at E3G, believes that Japan could achieve 70-80% of its electricity from renewables by 2035, thereby gradually phasing out coal. This optimistic outlook highlights the potential of renewables to play a leading role in Japan's energy future.

However, achieving this level of renewable penetration will require overcoming significant challenges, such as grid integration, intermittency, and land use constraints. Nuclear power, with its ability to provide stable baseload power, can complement renewables and ensure a reliable electricity supply as Japan transitions to a cleaner energy mix.

Challenges and Concerns

Despite the potential benefits of nuclear power, significant challenges and concerns remain. Public anxiety about nuclear safety persists, fueled by the memory of Fukushima and the ongoing challenges in decommissioning the damaged plant. The recent "mega-earthquake notice" issued by the government, which assesses a 70% risk of a major earthquake in the next thirty years, has further heightened these concerns.

Addressing these concerns and building public trust will be crucial for the success of Japan's nuclear revival. The government needs to demonstrate its commitment to the highest safety standards, ensure transparency in its nuclear operations, and engage in open dialogue with the public.

Moreover, Japan must continue to invest in research and development to further enhance the safety and efficiency of its nuclear technology. This includes exploring advanced reactor designs, improving waste management strategies, and developing strategies to mitigate the risks associated with seismic activity.

The Global Context

Japan's decision to embrace nuclear power comes at a time when many countries are re-evaluating their energy strategies in light of the climate crisis and geopolitical uncertainties. While some nations are phasing out nuclear power, others are considering it as a viable option for decarbonizing their electricity systems.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has emphasized the importance of nuclear power in achieving global climate goals. In its Net Zero Emissions by 2050 scenario, the IEA projects a doubling of global nuclear capacity by 2050. Japan's nuclear revival could serve as a model for other countries seeking to leverage nuclear energy as part of their clean energy transition.

Last 21st of october, Vietnam?decided to amend its national power development plan, known as PDP8, to include options for nuclear energy and hydrogen. This decision comes as Vietnam faces mounting pressure to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. As a rapidly developing economy with a growing energy demand, Vietnam's reliance on coal-fired power plants has raised concerns about its environmental impact. By pursuing nuclear power, Vietnam aims to diversify its energy mix and reduce its dependence on fossil fuels, thereby contributing to its COP21 pledge of reducing emissions by 9% by 2030.

Like Japan, Vietnam and an increasing number of ASEAN are currently looking again at nuclear as a potential solution to reduce CO2 emissions while preserving both land and sovereignty.