January Equity Research Insights
This month features analyst callouts on:
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China:?Singles' Day sales proved to be a negative turning point for China sell-out, as subsidy-fueled growth lost steam later in the year after supporting material upside in 3Q.
The major subsidy categories of PC, TV and Major Appliances all lagged the momentum seen in September and October, while other categories like Smartphones failed to see any corresponding bounce back.
Moving into 2025 the Chinese government has renewed subsidies?for durable goods to continue driving demand, now spanning additional categories such as Smartphones, Wearables and Small Appliances; however, this new round of subsidies will include more stringent price caps to reduce the focus on premium purchases seen in 2024.
This leaves key 2024 beneficiaries in a bind, either forced to cut prices to the subsidy caps or risk losing share - this leaves the China market at risk of major shake-ups in 2025, with significant winners and losers likely.
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Apple: NIQ Smartphone data was early in highlighting Apple iPhone sell-out weakness in China through 4Q24, ahead of the subsequent MIIT data release which triggered a sell-off for AAPL stock.?
Weakness stemmed from increased competition from the Chinese vendors, where AI features have generated more tangible upside to demand. In 2025 China will be implementing Smartphone subsidies which should be a tailwind to the broader market, though price caps leave the impact to Apple somewhat uncertain.
AI subscriptions have a higher propensity among consumers in the Apple ecosystem,
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AMD: share gains have continued to accelerate through 4Q24, pushing the CPU vendor closer to its pandemic-era highs from 2021. Momentum has been broad-based, spanning geographies, form factors and sales channels, but in particular AMD has thrived in the Gaming segment, the Corporate segment,?and the small but fast-growing AI segment. All three of those channels have historically been areas of strength for Intel, and if gains continue?in the latter two, it will position AMD positively moving into a major 2025 Corporate refresh cycle.
?? Global Tech & Durables Set for Growth in 2025?
Consumers’ willingness to spend is improving but is still at low levels. Stabilizing inflation in several regions has helped many consumers move from cautious to intentional spending. However, it has not yet resulted in fully restored confidence. Right now, consumers are ready to increase their Tech & Durables spending in key areas, but with a focus on affordability.?
Since the lockdown-driven peak purchasing of Tech & Durables in 2020 and 2021, the growth in year-over-year sales value for Tech & Durables products has lingered in negative—although gradually improving—territory. The turning point comes this year with global T&D sales for 2025 full year forecast to approach $1.29 billion—a 0.9% increase over 2024....Read Full Article
??2024 BevAl Year in Review
The 2024 BevAl Year in Review reveals a dynamic market grappling with shifting consumer preferences.? Download the Report
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