January 28: York added 572 cases and 7 deaths
Thursday, January 28:
York added 572 new cases (431 probable) and 238 negative tests (37.2% positivity), with 7 new deaths.
This brings York to 31,218 total cases and 630 deaths, the same as nine average flu seasons.
Pennsylvania added 6,036 cases and 198 deaths.
The US added 155,333 cases and 4,011 deaths.
It's a weird day of reporting. It seems that a trove of probable cases were reported belatedly. Traditionally when there's a jump in cases we've seen an equal jump in positivity. Instead, this jump is entirely attributed to probable cases (which include rapid tests), while the number of confirmed cases and PCR tests is right in line with previous days.
These probable cases are throughout the community in various ZIP codes, but a few notable jumps were seen in Dillsburg, Dover, Etters, Felton, Lewisberry, Manchester, Mount Wolf, Red Lion, Stewartstown, Windsor, Wrightsville, East York, Hellam/Emigsville, and Shiloh/New Salem. I'm not sure if there's a particular medical group that's just reporting a few back cases or if there are several, but I'm pretty certain that's what we're seeing here.
YORK DAILY AVERAGE NEW CASES
Today's new cases sent the 7-day average, the heavy blue line, jumping back up to 265.4 (from 213).
The 14-day average, not shown today, rose to 253.9 (from 240.8). The 4-week average, the dotted blue line, inched up to 283.4 (from 275.9).
Looking at these longer averages will give us a better idea of what the "actual" averages should be if today's unusually high probable cases include a few weeks of back data.
POSITIVITY RATE
Today's 7-day rate that I calculate from daily reported data which only includes tests on unique individuals, the red line, ticked down to 30% (from 30.2%).
The rate that the state reports weekly that includes all negative tests, the red dots, slid slightly to 12.2% (from 12.2%).
YORK HOSPITALIZATIONS
Countywide hospitalizations today continued their decline to 116 (from 128). The 7-day average, the green line, continued its drop to 142.6 (from 155.9).
YORK DEATHS
With today's reported deaths, the 7-day average of daily reported deaths dipped to 7.86 (from 8.43). This is shown on the third graph.
PENNSYLVANIA DAILY AVERAGE NEW CASES
Today's new cases helped the 7-day average, the solid gold line, inch up to 5,082 (from 5,028). Today's statewide data also saw an unsually high number of probable cases, leading to this increase.
The 14-day average, not shown today, dipped to 5,417 (from 5,499). The 4-week average, continued down to 6,574 (from 6,680).
Today's 7-day average of daily reported deaths dropped to 167.9 (from 176.7).
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? After writing above about my theory on facilities providing back data on rapid tests and digging through ZIP code data, it dawned on me to check the Pennsylvania Department of Health press release. I should have just started there ???♀?. They mentioned in today's press release that today's data includes backlogs of antigen tests from urgent care facilities, and that this might continue for a few days.
? Among the various new variants that are popping up, one was identified in California, coinciding with the unbelievable surge that's crippled the Los Angeles area. Some of the UK variant has been identified in LA as well. Today it was announced that the South African variant has been identified for the first time in the US, in South Carolina.
? Evidence suggests that double masking and/or upgrading your current masks will be the most effective way to help slow the spread of these new, more contagious variants. This also increases protection to the wearer.
Help slow the spread by wearing a mask and avoiding gatherings.
Download the app. Get tested.
Mask up. Wash hands. Be safe.
#YorkPA #COVID19 #YorkPACovidData
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