Corn and soybeans fell from multi-month highs following Argentina's tax cut; Wheat prices also eased on Argy tax cut and disappointing export sales ...
Good afternoon, Farmer Family ...
US farm markets mostly fell on Friday.
Corn prices dipped 0.66%.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed as soymeal tumbled 3.3%, while soyoil picked up 0.4%.
Wheat prices faced moderate to severe cuts as Chicago SRW stumbled 1.81% lower, Kansas City HRW fell 1.97%, and Minneapolis spring wheat lost 1.53%.
- Corn and soybeans fell after reaching multi-month highs.
- Argentina said it would lower grain export taxes, fueling expectations the United States will face tougher competition for sales on the global market.
- That will keep Argentina as a significant export competitor on the international trade scenario.
- Wheat prices also eased as the tax cut was seen encouraging Argentine farmers to sell more crops.
- Meanwhile, lower-than-expected U.S. wheat export sales also weighed on prices.
- In its delayed weekly Export Sales report the USDA said sales for 2024/25 corn totaled 1.66 MMT in the week ending on January 16.
- That was the largest in 4 weeks and up 62.2 % from the week prior.
- The 2025/26 corn bookings totaled 9,243 MT.
- For soybeans, data showed soybeans at 1.492 MMT.
- That was more than double the previous week’s sales and a 7-week high.
- Meal sales totaled 210,240 MT, was a 4-week high.
- Soybean oil sales were 2,890 MT in that week.
- However, for wheat, sales were just 164,837 MT during that week.
- That was less than a third of the previous week.
- Losses, however, were limited as the falling in dollar made a relative support to U.S. grain prices, making U.S. exports more competitive.
- Meantime, market players were also still looking for signals of U.S. President Donald Trump's plans to impose tariffs on major agriculture trading partners, including China and Canada, which could reshape global trade flows.
- Corn basis bids were mostly steady to firm after rising 3 to 8 cents higher across three Midwestern locations on Friday. An Illinois river terminal bucked the overall trend after easing a penny lower.
- Soybean basis bids were steady to mixed across the central U.S. on Friday after trending as much as 10 cents higher at a Nebraska processor and as much as 5 cents lower at an Indiana processor.
- Commodity funds were net seller in CBOT corn, soybeans, and wheat contracts.
- Corn continued the rally gaining another 0.46% from Friday to Friday.
- Soybeans had another back-and-forth week but March ended with a nice 2.1% gains since the prior Friday.
- Bean oil was back down 1.03%, while meal was back up 2.59% on the week.
- Wheat posted stronger trade across the three markets, mainly on early week strength.
- Chicago SRW was the was the weakest, up just 0.97%, while Kansas City and Minneapolis spring wheats both posted a 2.01% gain.
After the sessions close ...
The CFTC report showed large speculators raised their net long position in CBOT corn futures in the week to Jan. 21. The report also showed that noncommercial traders, trimmed their net short position in CBOT wheat and cut their net long position in soybeans.
- Notably, data from CFTC showed managed money spec funds in corn futures and options adding 19,450 contracts to their net long position as of 1/21 to 311,678 contracts.
- For soybeans, data showed specs adding 5,497 contracts to their new net long in soybean futures and options to 40,330 as of Tuesday.
- CFTC data showed CBOT wheat speculators trimming their large net short position by 2,601 contracts to 91,792 contracts as of Tuesday.
- In KC, they parred back 2,475 contracts to 35,131 contracts net short.
Soybeans slid for a second straight session as well corn, while wheat fell more than 1%.
- Notably, the most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell 1.4% by 0231 GMT, corn dropped 1.2%, and wheat gave up 1%.
- The market is expecting higher exports from Argentina, after the government unexpected cut grains export taxes.
- The drop in wheat prices, however, has been curbed by extreme U.S. weather.
- A blast of Arctic air covered much of the United States earlier this week, sending temperatures plunging across key wheat areas that have seen limited snowfall this winter.
- The week started with the weekly Export Inspections report this afternoon.
- The Fed will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday, with most expecting to see rates unchanged this month.
- The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday.
- The USDA Export Sales report out on Thursday.
- On Friday, the USDA will released their annual Cattle Inventory report.
South America
Argentina's unexpected cuts to grains export taxes will likely trigger a surge in shipments from the sector, analysts said, while longer-term it could boost production in the South American country.
- The government announced on Thursday afternoon a temporary tax reduction on grains exports until the end of June.
- That would incentivize farmers to sell quickly rather than hoard grains as can happen at times of low prices.
- Also, that could increase the amount of land used for growing crops like soy.
Europe
European grain markets fell.
- Benchmark March milling wheat on Paris-based Euronext was down 1.85% at 226.00 euros ($237.12) per metric ton.
- The contract, however, ended down marginally over the week, as it hit a one-week high at 232.75 euros on Wednesday.
- MATIF corn Mar was down €2.25/t to €213.75/t, while Feb rapeseed was down €4.75/t to €521.5/t.
- Argentina announced a reduction of grain export taxes.
- Also, concern about poor prospects for western European exports, weighed over the market.
- A jump in the euro against a broadly weaker dollar further pressured European prices by making them more expensive overseas.
- Russian wheat prices remained stable, despite government efforts to slow export sales.
- Russian 11.5% for February shipment was on Friday around $228-$230 a ton free on board (FOB), with Argentine even cheaper around $226-$227 a ton.
- Corn, meantime, was down out of sympathy with wheat but was more resistant to ambient pressure thanks to a more tight international situation.
- Oilseeds also fell in the context of a rebound in the euro/dollar and a weekly fall in crude oil prices.
Ukraine
According to preliminary forecasts of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, in 2025 the total area under crops in Ukraine will be more than 23 mln ha.
- Of these, 11.067 thousand hectares will be sown with cereals, which will amount to 48.1% of the total sown area.
- The Minister noted, sowing areas in comparison with last year have not actually changed.
- In particular, the area of sowing spring cereals in this year should be almost 5.826 mln ha, the main part of which will be allocated to corn (about 4.146 mln ha) and spring barley (790.2 thousand ha).
- In addition, spring wheat is planned to be sown on 222.7 thousand hectares, peas - 216.5 thousand hectares, oats - 161.6 thousand hectares, buckwheat - 86.8 thousand hectares, millet - 85.5 thousand hectares.
- “Winter crops for grain in 2024 were sown on almost 5.242 mln ha,” the report reminds.
- As for oilseeds, 8.892 mln hectares, or 38.7% of the total sown area, will be allocated for their sowing.
- In particular, sunflower should be sown on 5.171 mln ha, soybeans - almost 2.423 mln ha, spring and winter rape - 1.167 mln ha.
- Meantime, per latest data from the State Customs Service of Ukraine, as of January 24, the country has exported 24.475 mln tonnes of grain and leguminous crops since the beginning of the 2024/25 MY, of which 2.514 mln tonnes have been shipped this month.
- Notably, have been exported, wheat for 10.563 mln tonnes; barley for 2.035 mln tonnes; corn for 11.729 mln tonnes.
- Total exports of Ukrainian flour since the beginning of the season are estimated at 41.6 thousand tons, including 38.2 thousand tons of wheat flour.
Russia
The export duty on wheat from the Russian Federation from January 29 will be 4430.1 rubles per ton, the Ministry of Agriculture reported.
- For corn the duty will be 4659.1 rubles per ton.
- The duty on barley is 3407.8 rubles per ton.
- The duty on sunflower oil increased by 1,719 rubles and amounted to 17,786 rubles (previously 16,067 rubles).
- The indicative price for sunflower was $1,068.5.
- The duty on meal decreased to 3,888.7 rubles from 4,771.6 rubles previously.
- The indicative price was $212.2 against $221.1 previously.
- The ruble is gradually strengthening.
- Meantime, commodity interventions in the grain market resumed today, January 27, 2025.
- After a month-long break, 4.59 thousand ton of third class wheat have been sold.
- In total, 120,015 thousand tonnes have been traded since August 19, 2024.
China
China has prohibited imports of sheep, goat, poultry and even-toed ungulates from African, Asian and European countries due to outbreaks of livestock diseases such as sheep pox, goat pox and foot-and-mouth-disease.
- The ban, which also includes processed and unprocessed products, comes after the World Health Organization released information of disease outbreaks in various countries, according to a series of announcements by China's General Administration of Customs dated Jan. 21.
- The ban from the world's largest meat importer affects Ghana, Somalia, Qatar, Congo (DRC), Nigeria, and Tanzania, Egypt, Bulgaria, East Timor and Eritrea.
- China also said it has stopped imports of sheep, goat and related products from Palestine, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal and Bangladeshdue to sheep pox and goat pox outbreaks.
- It also blocked the imports of even-toed ungulates and related products from Germany following an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, it said.
Southeast Asia
Indonesia’s November palm oil stocks rose by 3.2% from the previous month to 2.58 million metric tons, data from Indonesian palm oil association GAPKI showed.
- Slowing exports, indeed, offset a decline in production.
- Notably, crude palm oil production in November reached 4.33 million tons, GAPKI said.
- Meanwhile, exports of palm oil products including refined products were up 7% year on year at 2.64 million metric tons.
Malaysian palm oil prices reversed losses, to end higher, and booked marginal weekly gains.
- Notably, the benchmark palm oil contract for April delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed up 0.55%.
- For the week, the contract rose 0.55%, after falling about 4.6% in the previous week.
- Data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Association showed a decline in production.
- The MPOA (Jan) 1 to 20 production data indeed showed a 13% decline.
- Meantime, Dalian’s most-active soyoil contract lost 0.83%, while its palm oil contract slipped 0.67%.
-
Indonesia’s November palm oil stocks rose 3.2% from the previous month as slowing exports offset a decline in production, data from Indonesian palm oil association GAPKI showed.
Malaysian palm oil is likely to trade around 4,000 ringgit per ton in 2025, except for a brief rise up to 4,800 ringgit in February, amid stiff competition from soyoil, industry analyst Dorab Mistry said.
A Reuters poll showed Malaysian CPO futures are expected to average higher in 2025, as top producer Indonesia boosts palm oil-based biodiesel consumption, although competition from cheaper rivals is expected to limit the upside.
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Jan. 1-20 are estimated to have fallen between 18.2% and 23%, according to cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and independent inspection company AmSpec Agri Malaysia.
Australia
Australia's southeast sweltered in a heatwave on Monday, raising the bush fire risk and prompting authorities to issue fire bans for several parts of Victoria state.
- Notably, the nation's weather forecaster warned that the temperature could reach 41 degrees Celsius (105.8 degrees Fahrenheit) in Victoria's capital Melbourne, more than 14 C above the city's mean maximum temperature for January.
- Authorities rated the fire danger at extreme, the second-highest danger rating, in five Victorian regions on Monday.
- Elsewhere, the states of New South Wales, South Australia, Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory were under heatwave alerts on Monday, the forecaster said on its website.
- In New South Wales, "low to severe heatwave conditions" were expected on Monday, forecasting the heatwave to intensify there on Tuesday.
International grain and oilseed tenders & trade
- Algerian state agency ONAB is believed to have bought about 25,000 to 35,000 metric tons of soymeal in an international tender for up to 70,000 tons on Thursday.
- Jordan's state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Jan. 28.
- Jordan's state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley. The deadline for price offers is Jan. 29.
- Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said it would seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Feb. 15 and arrive in the country by March 13. This would be done via a simultaneous buy and sell auction that will be held on Jan. 29, it said in a statement.
Outside markets ...
Oil prices settled slightly higher, but posted a weekly decline, ending a four straight weeks of gains.
- Notably, Brent crude futures settled up 0.27%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled up 0.05%.
- Brent, however, has lost 2.8% for the week, while WTI was down 4.1%.
- Trump on Friday reiterated his call for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut oil prices to hurt oil-rich Russia's finances and help bring an end to the war in Ukraine.
- However, the threat of harsh U.S. sanctions on Russia and Iran, which are key oil producers, could undermine Trump's goal of lowering energy costs, analysts at StoneX said.
- Also, according to Giovanni Staunovo, "markets will be relatively muted until we get more clarity on US sanctions policy and tariffs."
- The U.S. president vowed on Wednesday to hit the European Union with tariffs and impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
- He also said his administration was considering a 10% punitive duty on China.
- Trump has also threatened to hit Russia "and other participating countries" with taxes, tariffs and sanctions if a deal to end the war in Ukraine is not struck soon.
- Meantime, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that he and Trump should meet to talk about the Ukraine war and energy prices.
- Also, President Trump seems having softened his approach toward tariffs, especially after he said he would “rather not” use tariffs against China.
- Ditto for Europe.
This morning, oil prices slipped.
- Notably, Brent crude futures dropped 0.45%, by 0726 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 0.54%.
- Oil prices however pared sharper losses seen earlier in the session after the U.S. swiftly reversed plans to impose sanctions and tariffs on Colombia.
- The South American nation, indeed, agreed to accept deported migrants from the United States, the White House said in a statement late on Sunday.
- Sanctions could have disrupted oil supply, as Colombia last year sent about 41% of its seaborne crude exports to the U.S..
The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index fell for a ninth session in a row, posting its third straight weekly loss, weighed down by weaker rates across vessel types.
- Notably, the overall index dropped 46 points to 778 points, its lowest level since February 2023.
- The index was down over 21% for the week.
- The capesize index slipped 98 points to 983 points, dropping to its lowest level since March 2023.
- The index extended losses to a second straight week and was down over 29% for the week.
- The panamax index fell 30 points to 774 points, hitting its lowest since May 2020.
- The index fell for the third straight week and was down 13.7% during the week.
- The supramax index was down 15 points at 639 points, its lowest since February 2023.
- The index was down for the fifteenth straight week and fell 14.5% during the week.
U.S. stock indexes, posted moderate losses.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.3%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3%, and the Nasdaq composite sank 0.5%.
- Indexes, however, advanced for the second week in a row, with the S&P 500 up 1.74%, while the Nasdaq rose 1.65% and the Dow climbed 2.15%.
- Investors stepped back while they digested a mixed bag of economic data and earnings reports.
- Texas Instruments closed down more than -7% to lead chipmakers lower.
- HCA Healthcare closed down more than -4%.
- CSX Corp closed down more than -2%.
- The US Jan S&P manufacturing PMI rose +0.7 to 50.1, posting the fastest pace of expansion in 7 months.
- The University of Michigan US Jan consumer sentiment index was revised downward by -2.1 to 71.1.
- US Dec existing home sales rose +2.2% m/m to a 10-month high of 4.24 million.
- President Trump seems having softened his approach toward tariffs, especially after he said he would “rather not” use tariffs against China.
- The 10-year T-note yield fell -1.8 bp to 4.626%.
- Meanwhile, operators have prepared for a week filled with economic releases and a Federal Reserve meeting.
- In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 rose to a 24-year high and closed up +0.04%.
- The Jan Eurozone S&P manufacturing PMI rose +1.0 to 46.1.
- The Jan Eurozone S&P composite PMI rose +0.6 to 50.2, reaching the highest level in 5 months.
- China's Shanghai Composite Index closed up +0.70%.
- Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 fell from a 2-1/2 week high and closed down -0.07%.
This morning, world shares were mostly lower, with many Asian markets closed for holidays.
- Tokyo's Nikkei 225 gave up 0.9%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.7%, the Shanghai Composite edged 0.1% lower, the SET fell 0.7%.
- Computer chip-related shares saw big declines, with Tokyo Electron down 4.9% and test equipment maker Advantest sinking 8.6%.
- Updates on a Chinese artificial intelligence startup, DeepSeek, pushed shares in Hong Kong higher.
- Shares in e-commerce giant Alibaba gaining 2.9% while search engine company Baidu jumped 4.9%.
- However, Chinese official manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 49.1 in January from 50.1 in December.
- New orders and construction PMIs also fell.
The dollar index fell, posting a 5-week low.
- President Trump seems having softened his approach toward tariffs, especially after he said he would “rather not” use tariffs against China.
- US manufacturing activity expanded more than expectations, and existing home sales also rose stronger than expectations.
- However, US consumer sentiment weakened more than expectations.
- Meantime, strength in the euro undercut the dollar.
- The EUR/USD climbed to a 5-week high after the Eurozone Jan PMIs were stronger than expected.
- On the other hand, the USD/JPY fell, with the yen finding support after the BOJ raised interest rates by 25 bp.
- The yen also garnered support after data showed Japanese Dec CPI rose at the fastest pace in almost 2 years, with the BOJ also raising its 2025 Japan core CPI forecast.
This morning, the U.S. dollar was steady against the Japanese yen, at 155.45 yen, down from 155.72. The euro slipped to $1.0477 from $1.0483.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodity, Index & Currencies
- Chicago wheat Mar contract was down 10c/bu to 544c/bu;
- Kansas wheat Mar contract was down 11.2c/bu to 559.4c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat Mar contract was down 9.2c/bu to 595.2c/bu;
- MATIF wheat Mar was down €4.25/t to €226/t;
- ASX wheat Mar contract was down A$2.5/t to A$327.5/t;
- US DWI Cash (durum wheat index) was up 0.56c/bu to 652.50c/bu;
- 1CWAD (Canadian durum) avg spot price was not available. Available prices were NW SASK at C$310.65/t (-0.06C$/t), SW SASK at C$317.30/t (-0.07C$/t), and SE SASK at C$316.65/t (-0.13C$/t);
- EDW (EU durum) Mar contract was unchanged to €316.5/t;
- Chicago corn Mar contract was down 3.2/bu to 486.4c/bu;
- MATIF corn Mar was down €2.25/t to €213.75/t;
- Chicago soybeans Mar was down 9.6c/bu to 1,055.6c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola Mar contract was up C$1.3/t to C$638.7/t;
- MATIF rapeseed Feb was down €4.75/t to €521.5/t;
- Brent crude Mar was up US$0.21/barrel to $78.50;
- WTI crude Mar was up US$0.04/barrel to $74.66;
- BADI (Baltic Dry Index) was down 46 points to 778;
- Dow Jones was down 140,82 points to 44.424,25;
- S&P 500 was down 17.47 points to 6.101,24;
- NASDAQ Composite was down 99,38 points to 19.954,30;
- US dollar index (Mar '25) was down 0.618 points to 107.245;
- AUD/USD firmer at US$0.6310;
- USD/CAD weaker at $1.4344;
- EUR/USD firmer at $1.0492;
- USD/RUB weaker at ?97.8139.
Author: Sandro F. Puglisi
Source: Me, AAFC, ABARES, Abiove, AHDB, Amis, Argus Media, Baltic Exchange, Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, CFTC, CGC, China AgMin, Clear Grain Exchange, CME, Conab, Copernicus, CWG, ECB, ECMWF, EIA, Euronext, European Commission, Eurostat, FAO, FCI, FED, GASC, GIWA, ICE, IEA, IGC, IKAR, JRC MARS Bulletin, LSEG, MPOB, National Bureau of Statistics of China, ODC, OIAC, RBA, Reuters, Rosario Grain Exchange, Russia AgMin, Russian Grain Union, S&P Global, SovEcon, StatCan, USDA, UA AgMin, and Others ...
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