Grain prices were affected by broad losses ...
Good afternoon, Farmer Family ...
US farm markets have been negatively affected by broad losses, on Thursday.
Corn prices dropped 0.89%.
Soybeans stumbled 2.28% lower.
The rest of the soy complex was also in the red, as soymeal tumbled 2.52%, and soyoil fell 2.68%.
Wheat prices suffered a variable setback, as Chicago SRW shifted 1.74% lower, Kansas City HRW lost 1.66%, and Minneapolis spring wheat dipped 1.02%.
- Corn and soybeans were pressured by expectations that weekend showers in Argentina may ease crop stress.
- Expectations of a massive Brazilian soy harvest, coupled with a tumbling in soymeal prices a day after the National Oilseed Processors Association reported a record-large U.S. soy crush in December, underscored plentiful supply in the soy-complex.
- Meantime, a wave of farmer sales and profit-takings, after benchmark futures contracts had hit multi-month highs this week, dragged prices down.
- Wheat followed the lower trend, amid lacklustre export demand.
- The weekly Export Sales report indeed showed wheat sales in the week of January 9 at 513,424 MT.
- That was a 3-week high but still 27.44% below the same week last year.
- For corn, the report showed 1.024 MMT of 2024/25 corn sold in that week.
- That was well above the week prior, but 18.1% below the same week last year.
- For soybeans, the report showed 569,142 MT of 2024/25 sales.
- That was a 3-week high and nearly double the previous week.
- Soybean meal sales came in at 145,548 MT, while bean oil bookings were tallied at 57,299 MT.
- Separately, the USDA confirmed a private export sale of 135,000 MT of corn to Taiwan for 2024/25 shipment.
- Also, the USDA reported a private export sale of 132,000 MT of soybeans to China for 2024/25 delivery.
- Corn basis bids shifted 5 cents higher at an Indiana ethanol plant while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S..
- Soybean basis bids trended 10 cents higher at an Indiana processor and 5 cents lower at an Iowa processor while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S..
- Commodity funds were net sellers in CBOT corn, soybean, soymeal, soyoil, and wheat contracts.
Corn prices rose, and were headed for a second consecutive weekly gain. Wheat also rose and was on course for a weekly gain. Soybeans climbed, but were flat for the week.
- Notably, the most active corn contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose 0.6%, by 0314 GMT and was up 1.5% for the week.
- Soybeans gained 0.7%, and wheat climbed 0.3%.
South America
Agroconsult slightly raised its Brazilian soybean output forecast for the 2024/25 crop year.
- Notably, the consultancy said Brazilian farmers will reap a record 172.4 million metric tons, compared with the 172.2 million tons forecast before.
- It kept plantings on 47.5 million hectares, the largest ever soybean area for Brazil.
- Factors contributing to expectations of unprecedented high supplies include good climate in most regions and satisfactory planting conditions in key areas, which will support yields in large producing states including Mato Grosso.
Argentina's largest agricultural groups on Thursday asked the government to offer tax relief for the sector, which they said was in a "critical" situation due to a drought and low crop prices.
- Soybean exports are currently taxed at 33% and corn and wheat at 12%.
- Shipments of soybean oil and flour pay a 31% tax.
- "Weather conditions... along with the depressed international prices and high production costs, necessitate this (measure)," the groups said in their letter.
Europe
European grain markets fell across all the board.
- Benchmark March milling wheat BL2H5 on the Paris-based Euronext was down 1.0% at 226.00 euros ($233.03) per metric ton by 1724 GMT.
- MATIF Mar corn contract ended down €1.25/t to €212.5/t, while Feb rapeseed stumbled €11/t lower to €525.25/t.
- The rapeseed market was the most affected by the downward pressure.
- The soybean complex was down, and palm oil also was in a decline mode.
- Canola have fallen significantly for 2 days in Winnipeg.
- As a result, the market tumbled 2.05% by the close.
- Wheat dropped for a third day in a row to reach a six-week low as concern over weak export demand lingered.
- The contract earlier reached its lowest since Dec. 5 at 225.25 euros.
- Corn was under the downward pressure from wheat, but with a more moderate decline.
- FranceAgriMer on Wednesday maintained its forecast for the lowest French soft wheat exports outside the European Union this century.
- Aside from some fresh interest from Moroccan importers this month, EU exporters were facing a lull in international demand.
- An influx of large supplies from Argentina's and Australia's harvests on export markets was limiting export opportunities for EU wheat.
- Also, cheaper Black Sea supplies continued to provide competition despite a slowing in exports from the region.
- Romanian 11.5% protein wheat for January/February shipment was quoted at around $230-$232.
- Ukrainian 11.5% was reportedly trading in the mid-$230s.
- Russian 11.5% protein wheat for January/February shipment was around $233-$235, while the 12.5% protein wheat was quoted at around $238-$240 a ton free on board (FOB).
- These prices are well below the west EU origins.
- Meantime, grain crops in the EU are mostly in good condition, helped by moderate weather so far this winter, and the bloc remains on course to recover from last year's rain-hit harvest despite still soggy fields in France.
- On this wake, Strategie Grains said in a monthly report that conditions for winter wheat and barley in the European Union were satisfactory.
- Notably, the consultancy has raised its soft wheat production forecast for the European Union in the 2025/26 season, citing higher than expected planting in Germany and a bigger maize harvest forecast for Poland.
- Germany's winter wheat area for the 2025 harvest has been expanded by 12% on the year.
- There is a similar picture in Poland, where the winter wheat area is estimated to be hardly changed from last year at around 2.2 million hectares.
- In France, in its first sowing estimates for 2025, the farm ministry last month pegged the soft wheat area at 4.51 million hectares, up nearly 9% on year.
- As a result, the projection for 2025 EU soft wheat output was raised to 127.2 million metric tons, by Strategie Grains.
- The consultancy pegged the EU's 2025 maize crop at 60.3 million tons, up from 59.6 million tons projected last month.
- It also increased the estimate for last year's maize production by 940,000 tons to 58.8 million tons after raising its estimate for the Polish harvest.
- The 2025 maize harvest is now expected to be 2.5% bigger than last year.
- For barley, conversely, they trimmed forecasts to 50.5 million tons, down slightly from its previous projection, but up 0.6% year on year.
North Africa
Egypt's state grains buyer, Mostakbal Misr, has signed several wheat supply agreements with European grain producers in a move intended to secure favourable prices and diversify the nation's wheat sources, it said in a statement.
- Some of the agreements are barter deals intended to leverage Egypt's comparative advantages in various sectors, it added.
Ukraine
According to APK-Inform, during the week on the export market of Ukraine there was observed preservation of growth of purchase prices for feed barley.
- Notably, in Great Odessa and Danube ports, demand prices for feed barley increased by 2-3 USD/t and as of January 16, 2025 were reported in the range of 196-204 and 197-205 USD/t CPT-port, Odessa and Danube, respectively, compared to the end of last week.
- The key support for grain prices was provided by difficulties in forming batches of required volumes, given the restraint of sales by agrarians.
- In addition, similar price dynamics in the adjacent markets of grain crops contributed to the increase in prices.
- Ditto for the Ukrainian export market of food wheat, that experienced an upward price dynamics.
- Notably, in Great Odessa ports, during the reporting period, purchase prices for food grade 3 wheat increased by 2-4 USD/t and as of January 16, 2025, were reported within the range of 212-221 USD/t CPT-port.
- At the same time, in Danube ports the increase in demand prices averaged 2 USD/t and was fixed in the range of 214-220 USD/t CPT-port compared to the end of last week.
Russia
Russia's seaborne grain exports increased by 6% year-on-year in December, reaching 4.4 million metric tons, shipping data from industry sources showed on Thursday.
- Notably, data showed that growth slowed down in December compared with the previous month, when exports surged by 39.5%.
- Total seaborne exports have amounted to almost 32 million tons this season, up by 6.9% year-on-year, the data showed, with export potential estimated at around 60 million tons this season.
- Exports from Black Sea terminals, targeting Russia's traditional customers in the Middle East, rose 6% to 3.9 million tons, while exports through the Caspian Sea, which mostly go to Iran, fell 25.9%, the data showed.
- Grain exports from Baltic Sea terminals increased by 67% in December, confirming their growing role in targeting new markets for Russian grain, including West Africa and Latin America, based on the data.
- Seaborne exports accounted for about 90% of Russia's total grain exports last season. Last year Russia exported about 62 million tons of grain through its sea terminals, according to analysts' estimates.
China
Chinese soybean processors have turned to competitively priced Brazilian cargoes instead of U.S. oilseeds, amid fears Washington will impose import tariffs after President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20.
- China imported a record 105.03 million metric tons of soybeans in 2024.
- The share of China's soybean imports from the United States dropped to 18% in the first 11 months of 2024, while Brazil's share grew to 74%, according to Chinese customs data.
- Last year, Brazil accounted for 54% of Chinese first quarter soybean imports, while the U.S. supplied 38%.
- This year, worries about revived trade tensions during Trump's second administration, have prompted buyers to stockpile inventories.
- However, Chinese oilseed importers have turned to Brazilian beans more quickly and en masse, hitting U.S. suppliers towards the end of their peak marketing season in January.
- Chinese processors have indeed secured nearly all of their cargoes from Brazil for first quarter shipment.
- The competitive price of Brazilian soybeans has been a key draw for Chinese importers.
- Soybeans from Brazil are being priced at $420 per ton, including cost and freight, to China for February, while U.S Pacific Northwest cargoes are at around $451 per ton.
- Also, ample domestic supplies are likely to cap soybean demand.
- And that, is likely to leave the U.S. with 10.34 million metric tons of beans by the end of the 2024/25 marketing year in August, the highest in five years, according to USDA estimates.
- Meantime, China's pork production in 2024 fell for the first time after rising for three years straight, official data showed.
- Livestock companies reduced slaughter rates due to ample hog supply and weak meat demand.
- Notably, the country generated 57.06 million metric tons of pork in 2024, down 1.5% from 57.94 million tons in 2023, which was the second-highest on record.
- Farmers slaughtered 702.56 million hogs in 2024, down 3.3% from a year earlier.
- In the fourth quarter, production fell by 1.8% year-on-year to 14.66 million metric tons, a decrease from a year earlier for the fourth consecutive quarter.
- China's pig herd stood at 427.43 million at the end of December, a decrease of 1.6%.
- The sow herd was down 1.9% at 40.80 million at the end of November.
- Despite a smaller herd size, analysts expect China's hog supply in 2025 to remain in excess of demand and pressure prices due to improved productivity of sows.
- Cash hog prices have fallen to below 16 yuan per kg since December and have remained around that level, down from a peak of 21 yuan in August, according to data from consultancy MySteel.
- The consultancy also said prices may come under more pressure in the months ahead following the Lunar New Year later this month.
- For the other products, China's beef output rose last year by 3.5% to 7.79 million tons.
- Poultry output increased 3.8% to 26.6 million tons and lamb and mutton decreased 2.5% to 5.18 million tons.
Southeast Asia
Indonesia is temporarily freezing the distribution of subsidies for mandatory palm oil biodiesel and replanting programme due to a reorganization at its palm oil fund agency, an official said on Thursday.
- To ease to cost of funding the subsidies, the government said only around 7.55 million kilolitres (kl) out of a total of 15.6 million kl of biodiesel will be subsidised by the agency this year.
- The government had asked BPDPKS to help develop cocoa and coconut industries, including by financing replanting for both commodities, but details of the scheme have yet to be provided.
- Indonesia was in transition into a higher mandatory blend of 40% palm oil fuel in biodiesel, known as B40, up from 35%.
- The agency in November had warned that the higher mandatory blend would require a 68% subsidy increase.
- The government has allocated funds to replant 120,000 hectare area this year.
Malaysian palm oil price fell for a third straight session, ending at their lowest closing price in more than three months.
- Notably, the benchmark palm oil contract for April delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 2.01%, at closing.
- Prices were dragged down by weakness in rival vegetable oils and muted demand.
- Exports of Malaysian palm oil products during Jan. 1-15 are estimated to have fallen between 15.5% and 23.7%, according to cargo surveyors.
- India’s palm oil imports are set to plunge to a near five-year low in January.
- Expectations of improving Malaysian palm oil production in the coming months due to good weather also dragged prices lower.
- Meantime, Dalian’s most-active soyoil contract lost 0.72%, while its palm oil contract fell 1.81%.
Australia
Australian barley export bid looks to be supported by recent lifts in Dalian corn in China, with a strong cattle feedlot sector putting some stability under local bids.
- It shapes up as a potentially supportive time for barley on the export front.
- On this wake, WA barley was bid stronger at $330.
- In the east of the country, barley bid was unchanged at $305.
- To begin the year, domestic homes continue to show the best appetite for feed wheat, with the upcountry bids pricing at or above delivered port export bids.
- WA wheat was bid a touch softer at $375 across most PZs, while Eastern wheat was a little firmer, with APW1 around $345.
- For canola, WA canola yesterday was bid $10-$15 lower to around $860 FIS, while in the east of the country, canola bids were off around $3 to $815.
- Conventional canola continues to be well bid by domestic crushers, with delivered Melbourne bids around $840 this week.
International grain and oilseed tenders & trade
- The TFMA group of animal feed importers in Thailand is believed to have purchased around 195,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in a tender earlier this week. The purchase involved three consignments. One consignment of 67,000 tons expected to be sourced from either the Untied States or Australia was bought at an estimated $258.99 a ton cost and freight (c&f) liner out with trading house ETG believed to be the seller with shipment expected between May 21 and June 10. Another consignment of 63,000 tons expected to be sourced from Australia was bought at an estimated $259.89 a ton c&f liner out with trading house Cargill believed to be the seller with shipment in June. Another consignment of 65,000 tons expected to be sourced from Australia was bought at an estimated $258.99 a ton c&f liner out with trading house ADM believed to be the seller with shipment in July.
- Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries bought a total of 132,888 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S., Canada and Australia,with 48,308 MT US specific, in a regular tender.
- Algerian state agency ONAB has issued international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal-feed corn, 35,000 tons of feed barley and 70,000 tons of soymeal. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tenders is Friday, Jan. 17. The corn is sought from Argentina or Brazil only, in up to six consignments each of 30,000 to 40,000 tons with shipment between Feb. 1-15. The barley is sought in one consignment of 25,000 to 35,000 tons from optional origins for shipment between Feb. 1-12. The soymeal is sought in two consignments of 25,000 to 35,000 tons for shipment between Feb. 1-15, also sourced from optional origins.
IGC - January 2025 Update
The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday cut its forecast for 2024/25 global corn production, largely reflecting a downward revision for the United States.
- The inter-governmental body, in a monthly update, trimmed its global corn crop forecast by 6 million metric tons to 1.219 billion tons.
- The U.S. corn crop was revised down to 377.6 million tons from 384.6 million seen previously, bringing it into line with the current U.S. government estimate.
- Global corn stocks were cut by 4 MMT to 272 MMT, which is down 20 MMT from last year.
- For wheat, the IGC kept its 2024/25 world wheat crop outlook at 796 million tons, with a downward revision for Russia (81.3 million from 81.8 million) offset by an upward adjustment for Australia (31.9 million from 31.3 million).
- Wheat production in the 2025/26 season was seen tentatively rising to a record 805 million tons, up 1% year-on-year, based on information on sown areas and weather.
- However, "with supply seen expanding only fractionally, projected gains in consumption could result in a further drawdown in end-season stocks," the IGC said.
- World wheat stocks estimate indeed were raised by 2 MMT to 265 MMT, which is still an 8 MMT reduction from last year.
- For soybeans, IGC raised their world soybean production estimate by 1 MMT, as stocks were up by 2 MMT to 84 MMT, which is up 11 MMT from last year.
Outside markets ...
Oil prices settled lower.
- Notably, Brent crude futures settled 0.9% lower, after rising 2.6% in the previous session.
- U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled down 1.7%, after gaining 3.3% on Wednesday to their highest price since July 19.
- U.S. crude futures fell more than $2 at times during the session.
- Yemen's Houthi militia is expected to halt attacks on ships in the Red Sea, after a ceasefire deal in the war in Gaza between Israel and the militant Palestinian group Hamas.
- Also, investors weighed strong U.S. retail sales data, after the U.S. Commerce Department reported U.S. retail sales increased in December as households bought more motor vehicles and a range of other goods, but that could bolstering the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to cutting interest rates this year.
- Prices, however, regained some ground after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said inflation is likely to continue to ease and possibly allow the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates sooner and faster than expected.
This morning, oil prices rose, heading for a fourth consecutive week of gains.
- Notably, Brent crude futures were trading 0.7% higher as of 0804 GMT and have gained 2.6% so far this week.
- U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 0.9%, having climbed 3.6% for the week.
- Investors are anxiously waiting to see if more supply disruptions will emerge after Donald Trump returns to the White House next Monday.
- Meanwhile, data on Friday showed China's economy matched the government's ambitions for 5% growth last year, although many Chinese feel their living standards have worsened.
The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index eased for a third straight session, slumping about 3.8%.
- Notably, the main index fell 40 points hitting a one-week low of 1,023 points.
- The capesize index shed 99 points at 1,482 points.
- The supramax index fell 18 points to a fresh 17-month low of 765 points.
- Meanwhile, the panamax index snapped a six-day losing streak, rising 2 points to 896 points.
U.S. stock indexes posted moderate losses.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.2%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, and the Nasdaq composite fell 0.9%.
- Tesla fell 3.4% on news it is offering discounts on its Cybertruck.
- The weakness in megacap technology stocks weighed on the broader market.
- Also, health insurance stocks retreated and was negative for the overall market after UnitedHealth Group sank more than -6%.
- Strength in chip makers, however, was a positive factor for stocks.
- Thursday's US economic news was mixed.
- US weekly initial unemployment claims rose +14,000 to 217,000.
- US Dec retail sales rose +0.4% m/m.
- The US Jan Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey jumped 55.2 to a 3-3/4 year high of 44.3.
- The US Dec import price index ex-petroleum rose +0.2% m/m.
- The US Jan NAHB housing market index rose +1 to 47.
- Dec retail sales rose less than expected, and weekly jobless claims increased more than expected.
- However, the Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey jumped more than expected, and the Jan NAHB housing market index unexpectedly rose to a 9-month high.
- Meantime, bond yields turned lower on dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller.
- The 10-year T-note yield indeed fell -4.7 bp ending to 4.606%.
- In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 rallied to a 9-1/2 month high and closed up +1.4%.
- UK Nov manufacturing production fell -0.3% m/m
- China's Shanghai Composite Index rose to a 1-1/2 week high and closed up +0.28%.
- Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.33%.
This morning, shares were mostly lower in Asia.
- The Nikkei 225 index lost 1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 0.2%, the Shanghai Composite index also edged 0.2% higher, the Kospi shed 0.2%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 edged 0.2% lower, the Sensex in India declined 0.5%, while Taiwan's Taiex gained 0.5%.
- China reported that its economy grew at a 5% annual pace last year, hitting the government’s target but slowing from the year before.
- The economy grew 5.4% year-on-year in the October-December quarter.
- Strong exports and policies aimed at spurring more consumer spending and investment helped drive a boom in manufacturing, which jumped nearly 6% from a year earlier, the Chinese government reported.
- Shares in gaming giant Nintendo dropped 4.3% in Tokyo as investors apparently were unimpressed by the company's newest console, which gamers have been waiting for since rumors of its release first spread years ago.
- Computer chip maker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. reported Thursday that its profit in the last quarter jumped 57%.
The dollar index fell, as the dollar gave up an early advance and turned lower, on dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller.
- Thursday's US economic news was mixed for the dollar.
- On the bullish side, the Jan Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey rose more than expected to a 3-3/4 year high, and the Jan NAHB housing market index unexpectedly rose to a 9-month high.
- Conversely, Dec retail sales rose less than expected, and weekly jobless claims rose more than expected.
- US weekly initial unemployment claims showed a weaker labor market than expectations.
- US Dec retail sales rose, but were weaker than expectations.
- The US Jan Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey jumped, raising more than expectations.
- The US Dec import price index ex-petroleum unexpectedly rose, versus expectations of a decline.
- The US Jan NAHB housing market index unexpectedly rose.
- Meantime, the EUR/USD rose, recouping early losses, after the minutes of the ECB's December 11-12 meeting noted that while the -25 bp rate cut decided at the meeting was widely supported, some members argued for a more aggressive 50 bps reduction.
- On the other hand, the USD/JPY fell, with the yen raising to a 4-week high against the dollar, after a Bloomberg report said the BOJ sees a good chance of raising interest rates at next week's policy meeting.
- Also, Japanese producer prices rose +3.8% y/y, rising at the fastest pace in 1-1/2 years.
This morning, the U.S. dollar rose to 155.59 Japanese yen from 155.16 yen late Thursday. The euro fell to $1.0280 from $1.0301.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodity, Index & Currencies
- Chicago wheat Mar contract was down 9.4c/bu to 537.4c/bu;
- Kansas wheat Mar contract was down 9.2c/bu to 548.2c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat Mar contract was down 6c/bu to 581.4c/bu;
- MATIF wheat Mar was down €2.25/t to €226/t;
- ASX wheat Mar contract was up A$2/t to A$330/t;
- US DWI Cash (durum wheat index) was up 0.61c/bu to 652.08c/bu;
- 1CWAD (Canadian durum) avg spot price was down C$2.40 /t to C$320.40/t.
- EDW (EU durum) Mar contract was unchanged to €316.5/t;
- Chicago corn Mar contract was down 4.2/bu to 474.4c/bu;
- MATIF corn Mar was down €1.25/t to €212.5/t;
- Chicago soybeans Mar was down 23.6c/bu to 1,019c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola Mar contract was down C$23.3/t to C$606.8/t;
- MATIF rapeseed Feb was down €11/t to €525.25/t;
- Brent crude Mar was down US$0.74/barrel to $81.29;
- WTI crude Feb was down US$1.36/barrel to $78.68;
- BADI (Baltic Dry Index) was down 40 points to 1,023;
- Dow Jones was down 68,42 points to 43.153,13;
- S&P 500 was down 12.57 points to 5.937,34;
- NASDAQ Composite was down 172,95 points to 19.338,29;
- US dollar index (Mar '25) was down 0.099 points to 108.817;
- AUD/USD weaker at US$0.6212;
- USD/CAD firmer at $1.4393;
- EUR/USD firmer at $1.0296;
- USD/RUB weaker at ?102.4300.
Author: Sandro F. Puglisi
Source: Me, AAFC, ABARES, Abiove, AHDB, Amis, Argus Media, Baltic Exchange, Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, CFTC, CGC, China AgMin, Clear Grain Exchange, CME, Conab, Copernicus, CWG, ECB, ECMWF, EIA, Euronext, European Commission, Eurostat, FAO, FCI, FED, GASC, GIWA, ICE, IEA, IGC, IKAR, JRC MARS Bulletin, LSEG, MPOB, National Bureau of Statistics of China, ODC, OIAC, RBA, Reuters, Rosario Grain Exchange, Russia AgMin, Russian Grain Union, S&P Global, SovEcon, StatCan, USDA, UA AgMin, and Others ...
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