January 13, 2025 Edition

Welcome to this week's newsletter!?As we navigate the dynamic landscape of global markets, this week’s newsletter highlights significant developments in oil prices, China’s economic policies, and US inflation trends. Each of these factors plays a crucial role in shaping investment strategies and economic forecasts.?Let’s delve into these crucial updates.

Oil Hits Four-Month High After Sweeping US Sanctions on Russia

(Source:?Yahoo) Oil prices have surged to their highest levels in over four months, driven by a new wave of US sanctions targeting Russia's energy sector. The sanctions, described as the most aggressive to date, are expected to restrict supply at a time when the global market is already tightening. Brent crude has crossed the $81 mark, following a nearly 4% increase in the previous session, while West Texas Intermediate is near $78. With India and China, two of the largest consumers, potentially seeking alternative supplies, the sanctions could significantly disrupt traditional supply chains. Analysts suggest that the ongoing geopolitical tensions and changing market dynamics may lead to sustained price volatility in the coming weeks.

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China Policy Focus to Shift More to Consumption, PBOC’s Pan Says

(Source:?Yahoo) In a significant policy shift, China is set to focus more on consumption as a key driver of its economic growth. According to the People's Bank of China (PBOC)‘s Pan Gongsheng, ?the country aims to enhance domestic demand and reduce reliance on exports. This strategic pivot comes amid ongoing economic challenges, including a slowing global economy and trade tensions. By bolstering consumption, China hopes to achieve more sustainable growth and improve the overall resilience of its economy. This shift could lead to increased investments in sectors that cater to domestic consumers, providing new opportunities for businesses and investors alike.

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US Inflation Is Set to Back Fed Pause After Robust Jobs Data

(Source:?Yahoo) Recent data indicates that underlying US inflation is stabilizing, supporting the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) excluding food and energy is projected to have risen by 0.2% in December, following several months of higher increases. The labor market remains robust, with more than a quarter million jobs added in December, driving the unemployment rate down unexpectedly. However, long-term inflation expectations have surged, as consumers anticipate rising prices for big-ticket items. This economic backdrop has led major banks to revise their forecasts for future rate reductions, suggesting a more measured approach from the Fed as it navigates the complexities of inflation and employment.

In summary, this week’s insights reveal critical trends that could impact market strategies moving forward. The surge in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, China’s strategic shift towards consumption, and the stabilization of US inflation present both challenges and opportunities for investors. As always, we encourage you to?reach out to?Altive?for further discussion or support regarding these developments.

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Disclaimer?

This newsletter contains information from public sources, and any investment decisions made based on its contents are at the reader's own risk. Investing involves risks and might result in loss of capital invested. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.?

Altive Limited (“Altive”, SFC CE Number: BPK587) is a first-class alternative investment platform in Hong Kong licensed under the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) with Type 4 (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 (Asset Management) licenses. Altive only provides services to professional investors, defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance and its subsidiary legislation. Altive does not provide tax, legal, or accounting advice. This newsletter should not be relied on for tax, legal, accounting advice, or advice of any nature. Readers should consult professional advice before engaging in any transactions.