January 1: York added 661 cases and 25 deaths in two days
Friday, January 1:
York added 298 new cases (53 probable) and 359 negative tests (40.6% positivity), with 6 new deaths.
Yesterday on December 31:
York added 363 new cases (82 probable) and 320 negative tests (46.8% positivity), with 19 new deaths.
This brought York to 23,581 total cases and 425 deaths.
Pennsylvania added 7,714 cases today (8,992 yesterday) and 236 deaths (306 yesterday).
The US added 173,255 cases today (221,444 yesterday) and 2,534 deaths (3,255 yesterday).
WOW. 2021. When I started tracking this data in March I was comparing NY to Italy to see how far behind them we were, adding PA and then York as needed. I remember autofilling future dates a few weeks at a time, each time thinking, "Oh I wonder if I'll still be collecting this by the end of April." And of course April became May, then July, and now it's 2021. Even as recently as Election Day, January seemed so far off. I didn't even consider what this might look like so far ahead. But here we are.
I remember Dr. Osterholm suggesting this would last for approximately 18 months, and in the early spring that seemed so implausible. But here we are, and it sounds like it will be next summer or fall before enough vaccines are administered. We're just over halfway there. We can do this.
YORK DAILY AVERAGE NEW CASES
With these new cases the 7-day average, the heavy blue line, ticked up yesterday to 289.7 and on up to 300.6 today (from 289 Wednesday).
The 14-day average, not shown today, inched up to 337.6 yesterday and down to 324.4 today (from 334.9). The 4-week average, the dotted blue line, dipped to 389.1 yesterday and on down to 385.9 today (from 400.3).
Seeing these longer averages trending down is great news, I'm so hesitant to get excited though since we're not yet seeing the effects of the holidays. Hopefully the cases continue to decrease and the strain on our hospitals follows.
POSITIVITY RATE
The 7-day rate that I calculate from daily data from tests on unique individuals, rose to 38.1% yesterday and 41.5% today (from 37.2%).
Today the Pennsylvania Department of Health updated the Early Warning Monitoring Dashboard and York's 7-day rate that includes all negative tests was reported to be 18.2%. This includes approximately 5,460 or 127% additional negative tests, form 5,550 or 108% last week.
Overall testing has now decreased for about three straight weeks, following a curve similar to new cases numbers.
YORK HOSPITALIZATIONS
Countywide hospitalizations have remained relatively stable, but high. They ticked down to 237 yesterday and back up to 239 today (from 239). The 7-day average, the green line, inched down to 245 yesterday and 243 today (from 247.4).
YORK DEATHS
York reported 25 deaths in just the past two days, 19 yesterday and 6 today. The 19 feels like some reporting catch up from a few days, not that we saw that many people necessarily pass away in one day. But 19 followed 15 earlier this week as a record setting day. When adjusted for population, both of these are much higher than any single day that the state reported. You can see this on the third graph.
The 7-day average jumped back up to 7.00 yesterday and on up to a new record high at 7.29 today (from 5.57).
With 425 deaths we've now seen the same as 6 normal flu seasons and next week will likely reach 1 in 1000 York County lives lost.
PENNSYLVANIA DAILY AVERAGE NEW CASES
The statewide 7-day average has stabilized a bit over the past few days. It inched down to 7,134 yesterday and back up to 7,211 today (from 7,168).
The 14-day average, not shown, ticked up to 7,999 yesterday and down to 7,813 (from 7,997). The 4-week average, the dotted gold line, turned downward as well, to 9,053 yesterday and 8,908 (from 9,139).
The 7-day average deaths, shown on the third graph, rose to 180 yesterday and 193.9 today (from 175.7).
Help slow the spread by wearing a mask and avoiding gatherings.
Download the app. Get tested.
Mask up. Wash hands. Be safe.
#YorkPA #COVID19 #YorkPACovidData
LINKS
FAQs & links for getting tested, the COVID app, and other sources: