"Jam tomorrow" - are we guilty of never realising the value of digital innovation in the rail industry as we always look for the next big thing?

The phrase "jam tomorrow" refers to promising future improvements that never materialise. In the rail industry, this concept often applies to digital innovation, where transformative technologies are constantly on the horizon but rarely deliver their full potential. The rail sector faces many challenges in realising the value of these innovations because of several factors, including overpromising, fragmented integration, and a focus on future developments over present solutions. Here’s how this plays out in the real world.

1. Overpromising and Underdelivering

The rail industry has long been heralding the benefits of digital transformation. Take the example of the European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS), a technology designed to replace existing railway signalling systems with a unified digital solution. ERTMS was supposed to increase capacity, reduce delays, and improve safety. However, while the system has been developing for over two decades, full implementation across Europe still needs to be made. Countries like the UK have experienced slow and costly rollouts, and the anticipated improvements in service capacity have yet to be fully realised. In the meantime, rail companies look toward new technologies like AI and autonomous trains, diverting attention from fully realising the potential of systems like ERTMS.

2. Lack of Integration

Digital innovations in rail are often implemented in isolation, without considering the benefits of integration. For instance, real-time passenger information systems in many countries still need to be connected to broader rail operations. In the United States, systems like Positive Train Control (PTC), designed to prevent collisions and derailments, are only integrated into some parts of the network rather than others. Integration with other systems, like real-time scheduling or predictive maintenance tools, is necessary to maintain the overall effectiveness of these innovations. A digital innovation like PTC can be transformative, but its value is unlimited with proper integration into a broader ecosystem.

3. Cultural and Organizational Barriers

The conservative nature of the rail industry often creates a reluctance to embrace new technologies fully. For example, Deutsche Bahn, Germany’s national rail operator, has explored autonomous trains for years. Still, the full-scale deployment of such technology faces considerable resistance, partly due to concerns over job losses and the complexity of retrofitting old infrastructure. Similarly, in the UK, attempts to introduce innovations like driverless trains on the London Underground have been met with union resistance. This culture of caution often results in a "jam tomorrow" scenario, where innovations are technically feasible but remain stuck in pilot phases or small-scale trials rather than being fully rolled out.

4. Future-Oriented Mindset at the Expense of Present Solutions

A focus on futuristic, high-profile technologies often overshadows practical improvements that could be made with existing tools. The idea of Hyperloop systems, for example, has garnered massive media attention and funding, even though it remains theoretical mainly and decades away from being commercially viable. Meanwhile, existing technologies, such as real-time journey updates through smartphone apps, still need optimisation across many rail networks. In France, the SNCF needs to be faster to fully integrate real-time passenger data into its national train services, even though this technology could drastically improve the passenger experience and operational efficiency. By chasing the allure of future innovations like Hyperloop, immediate service improvement opportunities should be addressed.

5. Funding and Political Pressures

Digital innovation projects in the rail industry are often driven by political goals and the need to demonstrate progress to the public. Take Crossrail in London, one of Europe's most ambitious infrastructure projects, which aimed to modernise rail travel in the capital. The project incorporated several advanced digital systems for scheduling and control. However, it faced significant delays and cost overruns, partly because of the rush to adopt new technologies without properly ensuring their readiness for large-scale deployment. At the same time, political leaders continued to push for progress on future technologies, like electrification and hydrogen-powered trains, while the digital infrastructure of existing railways needed to be fully optimised.

6. The Reality of Technological Hype

The rail industry is not immune to the hype surrounding specific technological innovations. Consider the example of autonomous trains. While companies like Siemens and Alstom have developed autonomous train technologies, such as the driverless trains used in specific metro systems like the Paris Métro or Dubai Metro, the same technology has yet to be widely adopted on national rail networks. Safety concerns, regulatory hurdles, and the high cost of retrofitting legacy systems mean that the promise of autonomous trains remains unrealised mainly, even though it has been discussed for over a decade.

In China, the high-speed rail network, often lauded as a success of rail innovation, has implemented digital signalling and automation technologies. However, these advancements are still in the early stages of development compared to the full potential of autonomous trains. The technology exists, but widespread deployment remains years away, with the industry continuing to promise "jam tomorrow" in the form of fully automated, AI-driven operations.

Conclusion

The rail industry is often guilty of chasing "jam tomorrow" regarding digital innovation. By constantly focusing on the next big thing, the industry risks overlooking the value that current technologies can bring. Real-world examples like ERTMS, PTC, and autonomous trains demonstrate that while digital innovation holds great promise, its potential often remains unrealised due to a combination of overpromising, lack of integration, organisational inertia, and political pressures. The rail industry needs to shift from simply chasing future innovations to fully implementing and optimising the technologies already within reach. The industry can only break the cycle of future promises and deliver meaningful improvements today.