It's a waiting game ...and there is everything to play for

My son and I are locked in a fierce battle. At one point he was racing ahead of me, having won maybe three games on the trot. Game four and I was livid at the bad luck that saw me pick up 3 As 3 Ns and an I in one go. No wonder he was winning. So, naturally, when I finally picked up a Q and an X I just couldn't wait to play them.

I lost.

It's the Little Words that Count

I reluctantly had to concede that perhaps his run wasn't all down to luck. Maybe he had better tactics, including the patience to wait to play your best letters when the time is right. Why settle for Q in a double word score when you can find a way to plop it on a triple letter or, better still, a triple letter word where another tile nabs the double word score.

(This will mean nothing unless you have played Scrabble, sorry).

But it's not just that. It's the little words that make all the difference. Playing "EF" with the F on a triple letter in a way that allows the F to also begin a new word scores you 25 points. Knowing that "LI" is a Chinese unit of distance enabled me to play "PLAQUE" last go, reaching the triple word box and finally securing a win.

Two life lessons right there.

Have Patience

Sometimes you just have to wait things out. My business, the Reignite Academy, helps women (mostly) find jobs. The recruitment market is tough right now, added to which we're about to head into the summer lull. So my message to candidates right now is don't fret, be patient, there will be jobs to be had, use the time wisely and be ready to move when opportunities do arise.

Sweat the Small Stuff

Tanja and I went to see a client recently - popped in for a coffee & a chat - and she happened to mention they may soon be looking for a maternity leave cover. (The lawyer to be covered is actually going off in August so the need was actually quite urgent - you'd be surprised how often this happens. It mystifies me that they never seem to spot this is going to be an issue 5 months ahead of time, but there you go).

Anyway, as we are terrier like in our determination to find our candidates jobs, you will be pleased to hear that our solution to their problem started work last Tuesday. All because we popped in for a coffee.

Alicia, another member of our team, just achieved a very similar result following a chat in the playground when waiting to collect her daughter from school. The person she placed has been talking to us on and off for months. Just little chats, bits of advice, the odd opportunity, no big deal ... until it was a big deal.

Like the little words, the little thoughts, little actions, little efforts can have a very big pay off. Sometimes. Eventually. They go hand in hand with patience.

I don't know what you all do for a living but I hope this advice comes in handy. Be patient and always sweat the small stuff. Would love to hear your own stories.

Waiting in Vain

I was reminded, this week, that sometimes, "waiting and seeing" needs to be accompanied by "thinking hard and not defaulting to the same old solution." To coin a phrase, or not.

Let's take the Bank of England, which, presumably, is staffed with very clever economists and bankers. The Governor's number one job is to control inflation.

Common sense told us that coming out of the pandemic, with global supply chains broken, there would be shortages and as demand increased so too would prices. AKA inflation. That's even before "Putin's illegal War in Ukraine" as Tory MPs have been brainwashed into repeating ad nauseam as the reason why nothing is their fault.

I think we can agree that the Bank didn't move quickly enough to raise interest rates and I'm somewhat sympathetic, hindsight is a wonderful thing. And as a result, we have inflation. Cue action.

Sadly, it would appear, from my reading of the press, that the ONLY tool in the Bank's kitbag when it comes to fighting inflation is the blunt instrument of interest rates.

The Problem With Blunt Instruments

Well, there are lots of problems. They make a hash of things, they don't always work and sometimes they make the problem worse.

True, interest rates worked to curb inflation in the past but as L P Hartley reminds us "The past is a foreign country, they do things differently there".

Quick history lesson: interest rates used to jiggle around a lot (technical term) and working out when to fix was a massive lottery. On Black Wednesday in September 1992, the Government pushed them up from 12% to 15% in a day, which I recall, as a mortgage holder was absolutely terrifying. When Gordon Brown handed over responsibility for interest rates to the Bank of England everyone thought it was a jolly good decision.

Now? It's a lot more common for people to have fixed rate mortgages which ... drum roll .... means that pushing up interest rates doesn't have an immediate effect. Everyone assumes this rise will work, the next move will be down, and they can go on spending because their mortgage still has a year or so to run.

This appears to be news to the people at the Bank of England, who have only just noticed that the predominance of fixed rate mortgages might have jinxed their plans to correct demand. So the plan is .....

Well, I'm not sure what the plan is. Rumour has it there is going to be yet another increase next month but you do have to worry that this will be the goose killing the golden egg or straw breaking the camels back or whatever the right impression is.

When Will it Arrive

Hands up who thinks we're going to have a recession. See above for my own opinion.

Actually, I'm less worried about a recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth) - in fact there's a very good argument that economic growth is the last thing we should be chasing (see Kate Raworth Doughnut economics) - what bothers me a lot more is a collapse in the value of the kinds of assets in which most people's pensions are invested. Stock markets and the like.

It may be because I've read Trust (have you started it? Please do keep going) that stock market crashes are on my mind.

As an aside, here are some dates for you:

• Black Wednesday - 16th September 1992
• Lehman Brothers file for bankruptcy - 15th September 2008
• Wall Street Crash - October 1929
• Tulip Bulb Crash - February 1637

So they don't all happen in the Autumn then. We'll be fine. Won't we ...?

What is Making me Impatient

Limping Along

How many more Tory MPs do we need to see resigning, saying they are going to resign but failing to do so, being suspended for disgusting behaviour, not resigning but being forced to do so by the standards committee etc etc etc before the Government accepts that it really is time to draw a line and call an election.

Frankly, there are just too many significant issues facing the country (i.e. you, me and the other folk who don't read this newsletter) that we cannot go on like this.

Mealy Mouthed Opposition

"Mealy Mouthed: Afraid to speak frankly or straightforwardly"

Sir Kier Starmer, Rachel Reeves, Wes Streeting and the team are getting more and more cowardly by the day. "Refusing to rule out" public sector pay recommendations, rowing back on previous commitments to spend on green energy, obfuscating about policies to reduce child poverty ... all very disappointing.

It appears the nearer we get to an election, the more they think it's the Tory's to lose and not their's to win with a positive, specific message. Mmm. 1992 or 1997, what do you think?

I suspect the Tories are so bad Kier & gang may be alright but still. Disappointing.

Water

In case you missed it, we privatised water. Can't remember why, they probably said something about private sector doing this stuff (essential, life saving utilities) better than the public sector but in reality they more likely fancied the cash.

Anyway, we did.

It's a mess. Regulator has no teeth and has admitted as such. Companies took on too much debt, now "can't afford" to invest, have stripped out plenty of cash to pay salaries, bonuses and dividends but failed to spend on the stuff required to stop sewage getting into the system.

And we don't seem to have a plan. Not even one with a blunt instrument.

Back to Scrabble

We're back on track. It's neck and neck. Round 96 begins the minute the Tour de France is finished for the day. So I'm off to watch the end of that and prepare for the game.

I'll let you know how I get on in the comments later.

I'm watching: The Big Short

I'm reading: Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley notes and thoughts on whether there will be a downturn. Not exactly mealy-mouthed but they do like to hedge their bets. They are very good at explaining why it's not like 2008/2009 situation but you have to remember that they also didn't see 2008/2009 coming.

I'm going to: The Theatre. Going to see Dear England by James Graham. It's about Gareth Southgate and England taking penalties, which doesn't sound particularly compelling but the reviews are fabulous & it looks great.

I'm watching: Hijack with Idris Elba. OK, it's a bit far fetched but I'm LOVING it. And you have to WAIT as episodes come out weekly. Old fashioned but worth it.

I'm listening to: Leading podcast with Alastair Campbell and Rory Steward. Sister to their "This is Politics" podcast and two in particular stood out recently. Kate Haworth talking about Doughnut Economics and Sir John Major talking about all sorts including Black Wednesday, winning 1992 and losing 1997.

Special Note

I know nothing about economics, banking or finance (OK I have a relevant degree but that was decades ago). I have zero knowledge about whether the stock market will go up or down or stay pretty much the same. I have no inside track to what's going on in Andrew Bailey's head.

On no account should anyone take my ramblings as advice on what to do about anything, pretty much.

Oh, except this

The wait is over. It's back in stock. Although since the sun came out last month you probably don't need it right now.