It's time to take agriculture seriously

Tune into the news on any given day and you’ll be bombarded by sobering issues. Geopolitics, inflation, climate change – these three issues are raising anxiety levels around the world. And it’s getting worse. Who would ever have thought that something as simple as a rogue weather balloon would stir up fears of global war?

One major industry in North America tends to take a back seat to these headline concerns: agriculture and food security. Yet it is precisely because of these three issues that agriculture is destined to become the single greatest global concern this decade.

First, consider geopolitics. Everything changed when Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine. Until that point, the global political and economic order had mostly been settled. The end of the Cold War in the late 80s ushered in a new era of political cooperation and trade liberalization. That era has now abruptly ended.

In 2022 we witnessed the shocking speed at which military conflict was able to curtail agricultural exports from both Ukraine and Russia – two of the world’s largest producers. What was once considered stable and reliable food supply was suddenly cut off. Famine loomed over many African nations as a result. Global commodity prices skyrocketed.

What lies ahead geopolitically is hard to predict. But with tensions building between China and the U.S. – not to mention the troubling development in places like North Korea and the Middle East – it’s likely that the world will be rocked by more military tension. That could further disrupt trade in agriculture, and in turn, intensify food insecurity.

The second major issue is directly related to agriculture and food security: inflation. With grocery prices soaring around the world, many consumers are having to make difficult choices. This is now true even for middle-income families who used to take food availability for granted.

And even as central banks raise interest rates in an attempt to get inflation under control, food prices are not going to fall back to where they were. In other words, a return to the 2 percent inflation target won’t return the price of meat, bread or produce back to 2019 levels. It just means that food prices will continue to rise, only a bit more slowly.

The third issue is perhaps the most sinister of all, and that is the impact of climate change and more severe weather events. Even as politicians argue over how to lower carbon emissions, much of the damage of a warmer planet has already happened. More severe drought, more devastating flooding, more torturous heat, more crippling cold – all of it is having an increased negative impact on agriculture production around the world.

It all underscores the enormity of the crisis we are headed for, and it’s because of one obvious truth: you have to eat. Along with fresh drinking water and shelter, food is one of the few things humans absolutely require to live.

This is why agriculture and food security need to be addressed at least as urgently – if not even more urgently – than the other concerns mentioned here. It is a complex system in which agriculture is both affected by, and contributing to, the worries of geopolitics, inflation and climate change.

Policy prescriptions are also complex. Historically, few industries have been as politically charged and motivated as has agriculture. Depending on the region, the type of agriculture, and the overlying political backdrop, farmers have often been either king-makers or pawns in the halls of legislative power.

Industrial policies to help nurture and sustain agricultural production urgently are needed, and not just for political expediency. Required are sensible paths forward to increase domestic food production. While it may seem counterintuitive, some of that sensible path forward might lead towards smaller, more environmentally sustainable, and more local food production.

The world is a troubled place at the moment. So many issues and concerns are creating public anxiety unlike what many of us have ever experienced. And while these issues are serious, they will all be made far worse in a world of bare grocery shelves, food hoarding and empty stomachs. It’s time to take agriculture and food security more seriously.