It’s time to take agricultural security more seriously

24-JUNE-2024

Tune into the news on any given day and you’ll be bombarded by sobering issues. Geopolitics, inflation, climate change – these three issues are raising anxiety levels around the world. And it’s getting worse.

Yet in 2024, another major industry that has always been a concern is becoming even more worrisome: agriculture – particularly proteins and plant-based proteins. Geopolitics, inflation and climate change are combining in ways that could push food protein security to crisis levels by the end of this decade.

First, consider geopolitics. Everything changed when Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine. Until that point, the global political and economic order had mostly been settled. The end of the Cold War in the late 1980s ushered in a new era of political cooperation and trade liberalization. That era has now abruptly ended.

In 2022 we witnessed the shocking speed at which military conflict was able to curtail agricultural exports from both Ukraine and Russia – two of the world’s largest producers. What was once considered stable and reliable food supply was suddenly cut off. Famine loomed over many African nations as a result. Global commodity prices skyrocketed.

And in 2023, violence in the Middle East greatly heightened risk for freight transportation in the Red Sea region. The conflicts, particularly in Yemen and the Horn of Africa, are creating an unstable situation characterized by violence and insecurity, leading to higher instances of piracy and attacks on ships.

What lies ahead geopolitically is hard to predict. But with tensions building between the U.S. and both China and North Korea it’s likely that the world will be rocked by more military tension. That could further disrupt trade in agriculture, and in turn, intensify food insecurity.

The second major issue is directly related to agriculture and food security: inflation. While overall consumer price inflation has come down steadily since hitting 30-year highs in 2022, relative price levels remain elevated. That’s left many consumers with difficult choices. This is now true even for middle-income families who used to take food availability for granted.

The third issue is perhaps the most sinister of all, and that is the impact of climate change and more severe weather events. Even as politicians argue over how to lower carbon emissions, much of the damage of a warmer planet has already happened. More severe drought, more devastating flooding, more torturous heat, more crippling cold – all of it is having an increased negative impact on agriculture production around the world.

It all underscores the enormity of the crisis we are headed for, and it’s because of one obvious truth: you have to eat. Along with fresh drinking water and shelter, food is one of the few things humans absolutely require to live.

This is why agriculture and food security need to be addressed at least as urgently – if not even more urgently – than the other concerns mentioned here. It is a complex system in which agriculture is both affected by, and contributing to, the worries of geopolitics, inflation and climate change.

Policy prescriptions are also complex. Historically, few industries have been as politically charged and motivated as has agriculture. Depending on the region, the type of agriculture, and the overlying political backdrop, farmers have often been either king-makers or pawns in the halls of legislative power.

Industrial policies to help nurture and sustain agricultural production urgently are needed, and not just for political expediency. Required are sensible paths forward to increase domestic food production. While it may seem counterintuitive, some of that sensible path forward might lead towards smaller, more environmentally sustainable, and more local food production.

The world is a troubled place at the moment. So many issues and concerns are creating public anxiety unlike what many of us have ever experienced. And while these issues are serious, they will all be made far worse in a world of bare grocery shelves, food hoarding and empty stomachs. It’s time to take agriculture and food security more seriously.