It's time to move
People often believe that environmental policies and economic activity work in opposite directions. However, this general pre-consumption could be changed with the evolution and development of an up and rising industry, autonomous vehicle (AV). AVs are neither solely within the industry of transportation or information technology (IT); it is also not solely the responsibility of governments or the private sector; and it is also not solely about safety, environmental sustainability, or economic development. The AV industry is the birth of a new era, where artificial intelligence (AI) meets society.
The Business Insider, recently ranked the top 18 companies to most likely hit the road first with AVs, utilizing a scoring grade from Navigant Research1. It ranks all vehicle manufacturers in the industry and their progression. But despite all this activity over the past decade, governments continue to resist. Considering every jurisdiction is different, governments are put under varying pressures based on concerns most notably around safety and job security.
Since 2009, Google AVs have gotten in one minor at-fault collision in over 1.3 million miles travelled in traffic with drivers2. This proven track record exhibits the safety of AVs over human drivers. Of the 17 other not-at-fault collisions involved with Google’s AVs, all were because human error. Unlike drivers, AVs do not have a blindspot and can comprehend more data than a human mind. As technology in this field continues to progress, it is inevitable to believe that AVs are the safest option for travel.
There is a plethora of opportunity in the AV industry. To date, the trucking industry’s current demand exceeds the supply of truck drivers available3. Based on the report by CPCS for the Canadian Trucking Alliance, it is also anticipated that this shortage will continue to grow into 2024. As AVs become more prominent in the trucking industry whether through platooning or by other means, the gap could help support the industry and increase economic growth across Canada. The slow integration of AVs into the industry could fill the gap as truck drivers naturally retire. It should also be noted that from an business investment perspective, the evolution of truck drivers for AVs would be slow as there are high implementation costs. Other industries, such as taxis, transit, ride-sharing and fleet operations and management, would be replaced with jobs created from other fields, such as cyber and physical security, technology, AI, and new on-the-run service businesses (e.g. a coffee shop that could potentially deliver coffee as you’re travelling to work).
Government and private sector both play a role in the integration of this industry. From my perspective, Governments need to change their regulations and legislation to allow for the adoption of AVs in their jurisdiction. I also believe that Governments should also be responsible for developing connected vehicle (CV) technology infrastructure to allow network data to be processed by each AV’s AI. The private sector would need to be responsible for the safety and security of the travelling public who use their modules, while absorbing the liability of any at-fault related damages during the years of transition from drivers to AVs and when AVs are fully integrated into the system. As long as an AI is in control of a vehicle, liability should rest with the shared conglomerate of all companies associated with the liable module.
An article released by TechCrunch summarizes some of the investable opportunities within the AV industry4. They break it down into categories of hardware and software; however, this industry is far more sophisticated than what can be sized into those two categories. The investable hardware components of an AV, include:
- Vehicles;
- Data input technologies (e.g. lidars, cameras, infrared, etc.);
- Data processing technologies (e.g. computer processors, etc.);
- Communication technologies (e.g. CV, satellite, etc.); and
- Vehicle refueling and repowering technologies (e.g. inmotion refueling or recharging, etc.).
The investable software components of an AV, include:
- Data analysis (AI);
- Mapping and localization;
- Cybersecurity;
- Automated fleet operation, management, and applications; and
- Monitoring.
Other investable components for AV, include:
- Road construction/maintenance technologies (e.g. self-healing infrastructure, etc.);
- Corridor development (e.g. AV speedways);
- Data centres; and
- Multimodal hubs.
David Morris from Fortune wrote an article that states that a study from intel and Strategy Analytics claims that driverless vehicles would be a $7 trillion industry annually by 20505. It is an industry that would stimulate economic diversification and, if the consumer market moves towards electric AVs, a significant reduction in transportation emissions. Governments who choose not to adopt now will lose out on the economic benefits associated with its development. I am hoping that Canada and all its provincial and territorial partners will accept the challenge and take the next step forward and adopt AVs.
Winston Leung