It's time for a diverse transport solutions policy framework

What is the potential for a diverse range of strategies to reach net zero transport emissions in Australia?

Modelling released last week by Climateworks Centre puts an estimate on this, finding that a range of strategies can complement electrification of vehicles (currently our nation's only policy-enshrined emissions reduction pathway for transport) by reducing projected 2050 electricity demand by 9%. Or, said another way, eliminating 20TWh of electricity used for transport. Currently, transport uses 7TWh of electricity annually, but electrification will see this increase to 221TWh in 2050, assuming diverse solutions are deployed alongside.

The Commonwealth Government Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts has published its transport and infrastructure net zero roadmap (transport-and-infrastructure-net-zero-consultation-roadmap.pdf), and is calling for submissions across a range of targeted questions up until July 26 2024: Towards net zero for transport and infrastructure | Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts.

The report details what is needed to remove barriers to active and public transport, acknowledging the role of these modes in bringing about a range of societal benefits. It also highlights the potential for the Commonwealth to take the lead and fund various initiatives in collaboration with local and state governments. Yet, its proposed net zero pathway for light vehicle transport, comprises solely of electrification as a strategy to reduce transport emissions.

It is timely, then, that Climateworks Centre 's decarbonisation pathways report includes modelling updated to consider the contribution of avoiding the need for travel and shifting to different modes alongside technological improvements to decarbonise operational emissions associated with transport. Decarbonising-Australias-transport-sector-Report-Climateworks-Centre-June-2024.pdf (climateworkscentre.org)

This report thus provides some valuable quantification of the kinds of targets that could be set across a range of policy levers to ensure that the benefits of transport decarbonisation are maximised, and that Australia can credibly reach its emission reduction targets. These were my key takeaways:

• In 2023, sales of EV were 7.2% of all vehicle sales. This is projected to grow to 27% by 2030.
• Existing policy commitments for reducing transport sector emissions relies on electrification. However to meet Australia's Paris targets would require 72% of all new vehicle sales to be 72% by 2030.
• Therefore, dramatic efforts are needed to scale up the transition to electric vehicles. But that alone won't be enough
• Climateworks Centre advises a diverse pathways approach that reduces the need to travel and shifts transport to other modes to make up some of the difference in transport emissions projections. Even under this scenario, EV sales need to increase to 56% by 2030.

The diverse solutions modelled by Climateworks Centre comprise the following 'top-down' assumptions about the contribution of 'avoid' and 'shift' levers

• 10% fewer pkm across all passenger trips by 2035
• 5% fewer tonne kilometres travelled across all freight by 2035
• 35% of pkm from cars is gradually shifted to public transport by 2040
• 7% air travel replaced by Regional rail by 2040
• 15% articulated trucks and 5% rigid trucks switches to rail by 2040
• 4% of LCV shifts to other forms of zero emission micromobility such as cargo bikes, leveraging urban distribution hubs

?(Keep in mind embodied emissions are not the subject of this report; you can find more guidance here Infrastructure Victoria | Opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas… and here decarbonising-infrastructure-delivery-measurement-guidance.pdf (nsw.gov.au)

It's fantastic to see the synergies between these three reports; but it also highlights for me the opportunities that we all need to seize on to make Australia's mobility future a sustainable and liveable one. Namely:

1. We must scale up efforts dramatically across all three pillars of transport emission reduction: Avoid, Shift & Improve
2. Ask the community what transport choices they want and what barriers prevent them from choosing them
3. Develop an holistic transport net zero plan to synergise efforts to reduce travel (Avoid), shift modes (Shift) and electrify (or switch fuels) (Improve)

(1) We must scale up efforts dramatically across all three pillars of transport emission reduction: Avoid, Shift & Improve

My key takeaway from Climateworks Centre 's report is that we must scale up efforts dramatically across all three pillars of transport emission reduction: #Avoid, #Shift & #Improve. While we have momentum in the latter thanks to State, Territory and Commonwealth Electric vehicle plans, there is a dearth of momentum relating to avoiding and shifting; and what feels like a considerable lack of political appetite for such measures.

Another timely report goes some way to fill this gap: Austroads' review of measures to increase active travel uptake, produced by Institute for Sensible Transport has distilled the relative potential of different strategies to increase active travel. AP-R711-24 | Austroads.

Strategies include a mix of infrastructure, service and policy or behavioural initiatives. Importantly, the report stresses the need to make travel by active modes as attractive as travel by automobile to achieve mode shift. The report identifies many of the barriers faced by people who would like to travel actively based on a comprehensive review of case study projects in Australia and globally. The Commonwealth's roadmap also echoes many of these barriers - again another synergy that is great to see.

Clearly we will need something of a 'diverse solutions' plan, at all levels of government and preferably with some accountability taken by other actors in the? transport lifecycle. Hearteningly, the Commonwealth agrees, acknowledging the immense barriers to active and public transport and proposing a "national policy framework for active and public transport" in its Net Zero infrastructure roadmap.

(2) Develop an holistic transport net zero plan to synergise efforts to reduce travel (Avoid), shift modes (Shift) and electrify (or switch fuels) (Improve)

But, we also need some linking of the two approaches - the Avoid-Shift (diverse solutions plan) with the Improve (National and State/Territory EV Plans). Here I don't have any answers, only more questions: What does this entail? How can electrification and reducing the need to travel and removing barriers to active and public transport be complementary? How can practitioners in each domain support each other to achieve complementary goals?

(3) Ask the community what transport choices they want and what barriers prevent them from choosing them

Finally, I think there is an opportunity deserving of mention as a cornerstone of planning Australia's transport decarbonisation path: that of community-led design to understand and address barriers to uptake of 'diverse solutions'. Doing so offers the opportunity to improve transport choices by all on a project-by-project basis. Procedural justice means inviting those affected to participate in the design process. If the intrinsic motivation is not justification enough, then simply consider the uptick in project cancellations in infrastructure and renewable energy due to community opposition - or failure to earn the social license for a project. Far from being social engineering, this is respect. Listening to prospective users and affected parties can help build project understanding and improve the solution to meet a wider range of needs. And lastly, there is the need for deliberative engagement under the Victorian Local Government Act - so why not engage early and maximise the potential for community engagement to elevate project outcomes? More on this below…

So if I can leave you with a few thoughts about how to reconcile Avoid-Shift-Improve, and to shape diverse solutions that bring about positive outcomes according to what the community needs, it is these insights from the community engagement sector:

• Engagement is critical for building trust in a project. More on the importance of engagement in relation to Environment-Social-Governance (ESG) initiatives in a recent report published by Australia's peak body for community engagement, @IAP2: Groundbreakers and Transparency Makers: the Role of Engagement in ESG - IAP2 Australasia
• Echoing the IAP2 core values (IAP2 Core Values - IAP2 Australasia), the report emphasises that engagement is also important for delivering the solutions which, by virtue of considering all perspectives and needs, cater to more people. There is a short term implication of this - the social license to usher in change as well as longer term by futureproofing for a variety of needs.
• As developments in the renewable energy sector as well as many major recent infrastructure projects has shown, we can't afford not to…Next generation engagement: Setting a research agenda for community engagement in Australia's infrastructure sector — Australian National University (College of Asia and the Pacific) (anu.edu.au)

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We must recognise the value of early and evolving engagement. Ensure your projects are resourced to start from a place of asking the community how they want to be involved; and allow strategy, design and engagement to coevolve from there. In the context of developing Australia's National policy framework for active and public transport, we can use community input to set the goalposts, and consult widely across the sector to harmonise with existing electric vehicle strategies. Now there's a thought.