Its still early at the AI Party, what happens later? Stay thirsty my friends...

A top investment analyst recently said that its still only 9PM at the AI party but the party will run to 4AM. What happens between 9PM and 4AM? Clearly a lot, but will things get nuts? How nuts will they get? Will this party get “out of bounds” ? (to quote the B52’s)

That seems to be the big question that everyone is writing about.

Predicting the consequences or benefits from AI at this point is impossible. We cannot account for the unexpected. AI is a black swan event in its overall effect but predicting impacts accurately now is a fools errand. Predictions fall apart faster the further out they go.

The Amara principal states that we overestimate how technology can change the world in the short term and underestimate its effect in the longer term. That is where we are now with AI.

Yet with the tens of thousands of “follow the leader” driven corporate layoffs continuing, many C Suite types are anticipating a productivity explosion from AI, but a strong dose of reality should be administered to those who are forgetting historical precedent and clearly don’t fully understand where AI really is now.

AI does NOT automate jobs, it can automate tasks, and not all tasks either. So there is no direct relationship between jobs and AI where a single AI system or even a group of AI systems will eliminate a job entirely. Jobs are the sum of diverse and complex tasks.

AI should be used to enhance productivity not as justification to cut headcounts and then be rewarded by Wall Street increasing your stock price for being “leaner”.

But AI will change how we work for sure. AI Agents will be used by most of us in our daily tasks - if the task is suitable for AI automation. A task which has a large associated dataset is a good candidate, because an abundance of quality data will allow an AI solution to learn effectively. If common sense or knowledge of the physical world is required, however, then machine learning will not be ideal.

So who will benefit from the productivity gains in AI? The corporation and the C Suite bonus pool? Or will increased productivity translate into higher wages for workers who can produce higher quality work in less time enhancing their value in the marketplace? Will the larger companies investments increase the competitive divide and shift power to the largest companies?

Today in WSJ We heard that boards are stressing over AI. https://www.wsj.com/business/c-suite/ai-risk-management-boardroom-b8956c61?reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Add the other AI issues of energy use requirements and general profitability concerns and the AI party isn't looking very pretty.

The MIT economist David Autor led a study showing that 85% of employment growth in the last eighty years has been driven by technology. The same study revealed that 60% of workers today have jobs that didn’t exist in 1940.

The one thing that AI clearly is doing is evolving at unprecedented speed. As a younger person it will be essential for you to watch and adapt as this party evolves. As a most interesting man once said, stay thirsty my friends, and watch how this party continues to evolve so quickly.