It's Not the Product that Defines Its Value; It's the Consumers Who Determine It

When developing an idea, startups often rely too heavily on their own perceptions rather than the desires of their target audience. This reliance can make them biased. Sometimes an idea seems so brilliant that any negative feedback feels painful.

At the same time, every venture capitalist or angel investor will tell you that none of the startup founders who approached them ever thought their idea was bad.

Indeed, it's important for entrepreneurs to believe in their idea, and perhaps even overestimate their chances of success – without this motivation, they might not have the drive to bring their idea to life. The problem is that even when familiar with their target audience's preferences, they often fall victim to confirmation bias – the tendency to focus on the strengths of their idea while ignoring or downplaying its weaknesses.

Psychologist Dean Simonton, who dedicated his career to studying creative productivity, discovered that even geniuses find it challenging to distinguish between their masterpieces and more mundane works.

Take Beethoven’s relationship with his music, for instance. In a study conducted by psychologist Aaron Kozbelt, it was noted how Beethoven evaluated 70 of his compositions. In 33% of cases, he misjudged the public’s reaction to each piece.

Experts believe that having faith in one's idea is beneficial. But it's crucial not to overestimate it. If creators believed they had produced a masterpiece, they likely wouldn't strive for improvement, and ultimately, wouldn't create something truly great. After all, why perfect something already deemed perfect?

In reality, great creators continuously refine what they create. One successful work often follows dozens or even hundreds of discarded sketches and drafts.

For example, Beethoven discarded the finale of the first movement of his most famous work, the Fifth Symphony, only to return to it later and improve it.

Similarly, Picasso created 79 different sketches for his famous anti-fascist piece "Guernica." The final version was chosen from these early drafts.

If creators could judge the final version of their work while still in the process of creating it, they would move consistently towards that version, with all subsequent drafts contributing to the final product. However, in reality, creators often hit dead ends more than once.

This is why venture capitalists often say, "Ideas are cheap." The amount of funding an investor is willing to provide to a startup depends on the team's ability to turn that idea into a valuable product. It depends on how receptive the startup is to feedback and how willing they are to adapt the product to market demands.

In other words, it depends on the startup's serendipity. Serendipity can be envisioned as a mathematical formula:

S = A * r, where A (activity) is the ability to take action, and r (relevance) is the ability to identify truly significant tasks.

In essence, serendipity is about the ability to see and seize opportunities, particularly those that arise from customer feedback about the product.

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