It's Lively vs. Reynolds as 'It Ends With Us' Attempts To Take Down 'Deadpool' As 'Borderlands' Lags - Ticket Sales Tracking (8/5-8/8)

Hi,

Last week, M. Night Shyamalan invited audiences back to theaters with his latest thriller, Trap. While my $2.68M Thursday was just too high compared to actuals, my $4.09M Friday was actually a slight underestimate. Thankfully, Trap's actual opening didn't skew too far off from my $6.77MThurs+Fri expectation. Funny enough, nearly the exact same thing happened with the victim of the week, Harold and the Purple Crayon. Like Trap, my $.96M Thurs was just too high and my $1.23M Fri was just too low. Still, while actuals were not too far off from my $2.19M Thur+Fri guesstimate, this is no time for celebrating. Clearly, families just did not want this movie as it opened well below its $40M price tag. At least Trap, which was self-financed by M. Night, will do fine against its $30M budget.

As we are nearing the end of the Summer season, studios are left with two options: garbage dumps and counter-programming. Lucky for us, we are gifted with both this weekend. First up, Sony Pictures is releasing the latest book craze, It Ends With Us. With Blake Lively front and center, this popular Colleen Hoover "beach read" adaptation looks to bring in a huge female audience, which is not unheard of in late Summer with previous hits such as The Help and Where the Crawdads Sing. Due to its high pre-sales from a female crowd, we will be using Barbie as a comp. On the other hand, Lionsgate is ready to dump their long-delayed ,video-game adaptation Borderlands.Despite a star-studded cast, this messy production went through a slew of reshoots and a replacement director, which is never a good sign. Still, hopefully audiences won't mind as we will use recent action flick Argylle as a comp. I have recorded ticket sales for this Thursday and Friday for 3 Days. The green bars are how much ticket sales increased from day to day.

Looks like the hype is real for IEWU as these pre-sales are surprisingly some of the highest of the year. Over the week, ticket sales continued to grow at a steady and healthy pace for an already well sold title. At this rate, IEWU is looking to open at a $8.56M Thurs compared to Barbie. Things to Note: There were $2M Wednesday previews that will be added later. What a start! This is what happens when you cater to female audiences! Friday is looking to continue this breakout pace with $12.09M compared to Barbie. Clearly, the demand for book-based dramas is not long gone as IEWU has theater capacities close to a standard blockbuster, with a stronger showing at Theater 2, a busier location for more "adult titles". Of course the demands could not reach the heights of the Barbie hype last Summer, but these are still stellar numbers. While these sales are "blockbuster" level, the comparisons for female-dominated movies do come rather frontloaded at these theaters to not as remarkable actuals nationwide. Still, this is a great welcome for cinemas in need for another August hit and for under-served audiences who just want to get out.

Sadly, it does not look like Borderlands has that much to celebrate about. While ticket sales have had great growth throughout the week, it doesn't help much when they start off so low. At this rate, Borderlands is shooting for a $1.42M Thurs compared to Argylle. I mean, who would be happy with a start like this? Looks like there is no saving grace as Friday is looking to disappoint just as much with $2.39M compared to Argylle. With so much great talent and a once popular IP, this could have made a big dent. Looks like audiences caught on to the stench as demands are just weak all around. Even Argylle was posting better capacities all around. While this could have some walkup ability, the brutal WOM is looking to be the real nail in the coffin. Just goes to show, no matter how popular or famous your talent is, you still need to prove to your audiences that you have the goods.

Overall, this brings It Ends With Us to a spectacular?$22.65M?Pre+Th+Fri opening day. Such excitement cannot be said for Borderlands, which looks to peter out at a?$3.81M?Th+Fri opening. ?If theses numbers hold, It Ends With Us could reach an opening weekend of?$51M?while Borderlands will be lucky to reach?$9M.? Even in such a competitive theater market right now, IP clearly does not always work. When done right, you have IEWU about to blow past a $25M price tag. If done poorly, you have Borderlands, that is not getting anywhere close to its $110M budget. With the rest of Summer looking pretty empty, expect at least IEWU to have a strong presence for a while.

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TL;DR:

It Ends With Us:

Previews: $2M

Thursday:?$8.56M - expect lower

Friday:?$12.09M - expect higher

Opening Day:?$22.65M

Borderlands:

Thursday:?$1.42M

Friday:?$2.39M

Opening Day:?$3.81M