It’s The End Of The World As We Know It

It’s not just a REM song! If your organization is not already planning the transition into our new world, you better start. First and foremost, this crisis is a tragedy to many local businesses, communities, and families. At Devault Foods, we send our prayers out to them and encourage them to take advantage of disaster recovery initiatives that are being made available. It is now evidently clear that we will get contradictory guidance from our global leaders in when or how we might transition. I extend an invitation to my local business and industry leaders to reflect on the priorities that my team now contemplates.

This virus has forced us to evaluate the new world that will emerge on the other side.  Many of us have scenarios in place for workforce protection, supply-chain stability, communicating with customers, financial management, and leadership alignment. They were designed to get us through a crisis, but I contend that even our re-entry scenarios need to be re-evaluated given the global reach and partisan media coverage which has created widespread fear unlike anything this population has experienced.

Depending on your industry, all or part of your employees may be working remotely. Regular communication and using video conferencing during this isolation period can preserve group connectedness and shared goals; however, a second-tier effect of isolation is a reluctance to give up remote working and newly evolved processes. A reluctance to return to the former environment may be heightened due to anxiety about returning to group gatherings too early. I’m sure we all know someone who is afraid to go out – even to get groceries. There are still too many unknowns around the shelf-life of this virus and will it circle back for round two. We need to establish options for our workforce to transition into the new world in a way that enables them to have a purpose and contribute to corporate goals.

To say that this crisis has had an impact on supply-chain is an understatement. You only need to look at the empty shelves in supermarkets, delayed deliveries by Amazon, and reallocation of healthcare supplies. The situation created opportunities for us to be innovative and form new relationships; however, we need to consider the impact on our supply chain as our community re-enters from isolation and beyond. Supply-chain resilience may sound impossible, but we need to find processes that will serve in the longer-term.

Similarly, to our employees, we are not sure how our customers and vendors will re-enter. Being overly optimistic about demand would be a mistake, causing further operational and financial problems. Customers’ buying habits and preferences may not go back to pre-virus practices.  Consumers may continue to rely upon online shopping until their anxiety about re-entry has passed. The most important way to understand the scope of scenario planning is to stay in close communication with customers, suppliers, and vendors.

Business sectors are going to see very different financial implications. Some industries like tourism and conferences will see lost demand, which cannot be recovered, while other sectors will see delayed demand. It is anticipated that upon re-entry, hospitality and consumer goods will see a spike that will offset part of their current loss.

At this point, we must factor these cultural and demand shocks into our year-end forecasts so that we can re-set a course. The probable impact on the workforce, supply-chain, and cashflow necessitates a realignment of purpose and coordination. Organizations and Universities that typically provide research insights and a forum for discussion are managing their own fallout. We have an accountability to our employees, suppliers, and customers to set a new course. As we endure the next weeks of social distancing, it is the optimal time for our leadership teams to scenario plan for business alignment to a new world set of goals.

I welcome your comments and discussion.