It's the Economy, Stupid. Now and Forever.

How do you measure the effectiveness of an election campaign? Both in academia and in the real world of electoral politics, people usually conclude that if you win the election, the campaign was good and if you lose, all the campaign did was wrong. But that is not necessarily the case. While winning is of course the ultimate goal, one might win despite a mediocre campaign but helpful circumstances or vice versa. In that sense, let’s not jump to conclusions about what has happened last night in the U.S.

As I stood in the TV studio last night and the results started to become clearer, I nevertheless couldn’t stop thinking about my recently published book, Beat the Incumbent. The basic hypothesis is that elections with an incumbent are foremost a referendum on the incumbent. Let’s remember that Joe Biden dropped out of the race because he would almost certainly have lost such a referendum in a landslide. And even for Kamala Harris, the incumbent party candidate, it would have probably taken a miracle to overcome the circumstances with respect to inflation and the border.

Two indicators are key in that respect. More than two thirds of the electorate think that the country is on the wrong track. And a majority disapproves of the job Joe Biden is doing. In German, we have a saying that "Wahltag ist Zahltag," meaning that election day is pay day. It’s the day when voters render their verdict about the crew that is in power. And last night, that verdict was very clear.

Election campaigns should be seen and planned as a series of strategic decisions. Kamala Harris and her team made the decision that she wanted to be loyal to Joe Biden. In hindsight, it’s worth a thought if she should have offered voters more contrast with respect to the Biden policies.

James Carville, the legendary Democratic consultant, said 32 years ago that "it’s the economy, stupid." I’d like to add, that it’s the economy stupid, now and forever. And everywhere.

Throughout the election campaign, I have emphasized the explosiveness of inflation. I also think that this is where Prof. Lichtman’s model about the keys to the White House went wrong. Inflation is an issue that affects each and everyone. Even with rich people, you see the pain in their face when they have to pull out the coins from their pocket to pay the parking lot.

In such a situation, it doesn’t help to argue with macroeconomic indicators in the sense that it’s better here than in another country. I just had this conversation recently with a Minister of Economic Affairs. People don’t live in another country. And they can’t pay for groceries with Democracy or reproductive rights. If the mood of the electorate is so sour, people just want to stop the bleeding.

Another takeaway for me is that there was an issue of race in the race. I wrote in a piece for Newsweek where I argued that with the media hype about Kamala Harris, voters may not be willing to admit that they did not plan to vote for the first women of color running for president. And on the other side, I was quoted in the Washington Times' Inside the Beltway section just the day before the election that a case is to be made that most undecided voters were actually not undecided, but hidden Trump voters.

I remember a Republican pollster from the Trafalgar Group famously saying: People lie to their spouse, to their accountant and to their doctor. Why would they tell in all honesty to a stranger over the phone who they are going to vote for?

The election also reminds us that at times, there is a difference between published opinion and public opinion, meaning that there is a difference between the mainstream narrative that is published in the media and what people really think. For example with respect to the gender gap. Exit polls are to be taken with a grain of salt, but it did jump into my eyes that according to the CNN exit polls, white women broke 52% - 47% for Trump. White women without a college degree even went 62% - 37% for Trump.

Overall, women voters did seem to have preferred Harris, but men also vote. If the gender gap is symmetric, it nets out as a zero sum game. I don’t think that Donald Trump did all that much outreach with Latino men, black men or young men. But he appealed to them with an overarching economic message.

Also according to the CNN exit polls, first time voters broke 54% - 45% for Donald Trump. If anybody needed any more proof, celebrities can barely deliver votes per se. And until further notice, elections are not won on TikTok.?

PS: Check out my channel on YouTube and watch my latest video where I explain the result of the election in less than 3 minutes.