It’s the 50% Rule, Stupid

If you follow the data Marketing sells everything: Even Low-Quality Products

Marketing is simple if you follow the data. Trump’s return to power in 2024 exemplifies this fundamental truth in both politics and marketing — especially when it comes to selling low-quality products. In the U.S., no president can win re-election without at least 50% approval. Was this “50% Rule” historical data that pushed Trump out in 2020 and, ironically, paved the way for his return when Democrats ignored it in 2024.

The lesson was clear: in times of governmental fatigue, the unpopularity of a president or their successor guarantees success for any candidate promising change, even from the ruling party if they offer a break from the status quo. Trump seized on this Democratic oversight, skillfully tapping into public dissatisfaction and weariness.

Trump stands out for his unique ability to generate strong emotions, both positive and negative. This polarizing effect not only amplifies his message but makes him stand out against his opponents. Unlike candidates who strive for moderation, Trump leverages polarization to his advantage, communicating in a direct and impactful way that resonates with an electorate weary of current policies. But his 2024 victory, like his 2020 defeat, wasn’t the result of an extraordinary campaign. Was "It’s the 50% Rule, Stupid.”

In marketing, as in politics, it’s clear that even low-quality products can be “sold” when someone promises change or a break from the status quo and creates intense public emotions or showmanship. In politics, as in marketing, those who stand out with a direct and focused message capture attention — and often, they win.

The Obama Exception: Charisma That Defied the Rule

There is, however, one notable exception to the “50% Rule”: Barack Obama. As the first Black American president, Obama brought a historic and transformative presence to the office, which resonated deeply with many voters. In 2012, he managed to win re-election despite an approval rating below 50%, thanks to his charisma, strong communication skills, and a loyal support base. These qualities, along with the groundbreaking nature of his presidency, allowed him to overcome government fatigue and defy the typical trend that unseats unpopular candidates. Obama was the exception that proved the rule: without an authentic emotional connection and a message of powerful rupture it is nearly impossible to overcome the impact of unpopularity.