It’s 2040 and we solved climate change

?? Author’s Notes:

Three weeks ago, I started the course, "Climate Change: Learning for Action", from Terra.do . The article that follows is a response to a visioning exercise from the course that prompted participants to think about the following:

1. The world in 2040 if society was on track to limit planetary warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
2. The role we personally played in making this future a reality.

A few things to keep in mind before reading:

• I wrote this piece before COP28 concluded.
• The feasibility of keeping Earth’s long-term average temperature below the 1.5-degree threshold is outside the scope of this article.
• I’m at the very beginning of my climate journey and I’m learning new things each day.

If you’d like to connect, please reach out.

- Colin

It’s 2040 and we solved climate change

I have a bold vision for 2040. An optimistic vision.

This piece is intended to start conversations, spark new ideas, and lead to real solutions. It’s me publicly declaring that I’m going to pivot my career into Climate no matter what it takes.

It may also be the perfect illustration of the Dunning-Kruger effect at work. Multiple things can be true at once, so please excuse blind spots in my thinking.

Climate Change is a global problem. Humanity needs to limit planetary warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average to avert the most catastrophic effects of climate change (Read more here). One individual is not going to solve it. It’ll take all of us. And it’s not too late.

I recently joined Terra.do, an inspiring, global, climate community. While the future can be daunting, meeting intelligent and motivated individuals working on climate solutions has me believing that we’re at the forefront of innovation.

I’m writing this from the perspective of a United States citizen in December 2023 — an ex-IT consultant with a business background aspiring to be a Climate professional. I don’t have all the answers (or any, actually?), but I’m committed to continuous learning and contributing wherever I can.

Below, I’ll outline my bullish vision for 2040 across three sectors based on my learnings to date. Let’s dive in.

?? Transportation

?? My Prediction for 2040:

Less than 10% of all light-duty transportation in the U.S. will be comprised of vehicles powered by internal combustion engines.

?? More Details:

• Most cars and trucks today use an “internal combustion engine” (ICE), powered by burning oil-based fuels. When burned, those fuels create climate-warming carbon dioxide and other pollutants that emit from these vehicles’ tailpipes. Electric vehicles (EVs) have neither engines nor tailpipes (MIT Climate Portal, 2023).
• From the Center for Sustainable Energy, “Transportation is the largest source of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions,?with light-duty vehicles contributing more than half of the sector's emissions. Since 1990, GHG emissions from transportation have risen 18.6% while GHG emissions for electricity generation have fallen 15.7% (U.S. EPA, 2021).” Additional data points can be found here.

? Why this Matters:

• Greenhouse gases block infrared (long-wave) radiation from leaving the Earth's atmosphere. This greenhouse effect?traps radiation from the sun and warms the planet's surface (U.S. EIA, 2023).
• To reduce planetary warming, we need to reduce GHG emissions.

?? My Thoughts:

• According to Automotive Drive, Electric Vehicles are expected to account for 75% of the market in 2040. I think we need higher adoption than this 75% target in order to reduce GHG emissions to achieve the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming target.
• As new electric innovations are introduced and EVs are adopted, less gasoline-powered vehicles and products will be used. This will reduce the demand for gasoline. Traditional fossil fuel-based energy companies will reduce supply accordingly and prices will fall to an equilibrium price (More reading on the laws of supply and demand here). In other words, it will no longer be as profitable to be in the business of fossil fuels. We will need these economic incentives for big business to pivot from a fossil fuel-based energy economy to a renewable-based energy economy.
• There will need to be a solution to handle all of the obsolete ICE vehicles that will be left behind as part of this transition. In my research, I came across ideas like recycling the vehicles or retrofitting ICE vehicles?with electric motors and batteries.

?? Cities

?? My Prediction for 2040:

Parking lots will be gradually repurposed into marketplaces, community centers, or solar power plants

?? More Details:

• As of the early 2000s, parking covered?2–5% of urban land?in the U.S. (Time, 2022).
• A study from Parking Reform Network found that 22% of all land in city centers of metropolitan areas with over a million people was dedicated solely to parking (Read more here).
• The increasing adoption of e-mobility solutions in urban areas, coupled with improved public transportation options, will lead to more walkable cities and a decline in traditional parking lots. This article from Energy5 finds that electric cars are opening up new opportunities for urban planning and reducing the need for parking spaces.
• U.S. cities are already rethinking their parking mandates to scale back minimums required when planning new developments. This is good news for urban inhabitants and affordable housing advocates (Lower cost in construction = lower rent. Read more here).
• With less demand for parking, there will be huge potential to transform parking lots and urban garages into solar power plants, among other uses (Read more here or here).

? Why this Matters:

• Greenhouse gas emissions will decrease and urban land can be used more productively.
• Cities will improve the quality of life for inhabitants, while also aiming to capture revenue or create new jobs from these parking lots. The result will be more livable and affordable cities that are contributing to a carbon-free future (This is an interesting article about 4 ways solar projects can benefit cities).

?? My Thoughts:

• The way we plan cities in America is antiquated and based around the car. Our cities sprawl into suburbs far from downtowns. When people commute to the city center, they need a place to park. Surely something will need to happen to all of these parking lots as people reduce reliance on cars, right?
• In my opinion, Strong Towns is a thought leader in the urban planning space. This link contains some ideas about planning for life after parking.

?? Work

?? My Prediction for 2040:

We will see a reversal on the return-to-office movement (5 days a week) to expedite the cutting of greenhouse gas emissions

?? More Details:

• A U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) study “found that working remotely more than one day per week could cut emissions, mainly driven by less office energy use and commuting (Read more from The Washington Post).”
• Data collected during the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the EIA study and other research, providing real-world examples for businesses and governments to make policy decisions around.
• It’s important to note that there were some surprising findings from the pandemic too. This article from the NASA Jet Propulsion Lab showed that emissions returned to near-pre-pandemic levels by late 2020, despite reduced activity in many sectors of the economy. Reducing emissions permanently to hit the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming target will require transitioning to low-carbon emitting technology.

? Why this Matters:

• While I found this article from Remote the most compelling, the theme of working from home for environmental benefits came up again and again in my research. Remote work advocates will use these ideas and data points to further their causes.
• It’s interesting to see the intersection of business, innovation, and environmental interests (depending on who you ask). We should look for more intersections like this to meet our emissions targets.

?? My Thoughts:

• This seems like low-hanging fruit to further reduce transportation-related emissions. I wonder if we’ll see any government-related mandates for this in coming years? Will there be economic incentives coming?
• I’ve been a remote worker since 2019 (before it was cool ??). Previously, I had a daily, one-hour roundtrip commute on public transportation to the office in Chicago. After going remote, my work performance improved when I was able to eliminate office distractions and reclaim an hour of productive time each day.
• Back to the earlier theme of “multiple things can be true at once”, I think there are productivity and social benefits to being in-person. I also don’t see remote-work completely replacing the need for face time and in-person collaboration. However, we can be smarter about the way we approach work as a society so businesses and the environment mutually benefit. An overarching “return-to-office” policy is not the solution.

As for me…

This is just the beginning of my journey. I don’t know where I’ll be in 2040, but I know what steps I need to take to find my place:

1?? Start today by being unafraid to learn in public and putting this post out there

• I’m going to make mistakes and people are going to tell me I’m wrong. That’s all part of the learning process.

2?? Dive deeper into my growing interests:

• FireTech: This is the climate sector focused on combatting extreme wildfires. I’m motivated to learn more by my love for running outside coupled with my experience dealing with the smoke from the Canadian wildfires during this past summer.
• Renewable Energy: The world will always need energy. Humanity will benefit as we find increasingly more efficient ways to produce and reuse that energy. I’m currently learning more about companies that produce clean energy, reduce GHG emissions, efficiently implement new technologies, and create new jobs.
• Waste-to-Value: I hate seeing wasted food or trash on the side of the road. When I was 7, I remember asking my mom if we could make gasoline out of garbage to do something productive with it (I didn’t know about EVs back then ??). I wish I had recognized that natural interest when I was choosing my college education. I’m making up for lost time by learning more about companies that take waste and make something productive out of it without harmful byproducts.
• Impactful and Fundamentally Sound Businesses: As a person with a business background, I’m fascinated by companies that can make a positive impact on the environment while building a great business. For better or worse, nothing unites humanity like a solid business model. Let’s rethink our approach to business and make it work for the environment too. We need to do this for our planet’s sake.

3?? Break into the industry by doing uncommon things: Working hard, networking, and leveraging my existing skill sets to find the optimal role and company for me

• I try to talk to at least 8 people per week during this career-pivot period I’m in. The conversations have been amazing. I’ve loved learning about diverse backgrounds, hearing global perspectives, and meeting smart and interesting people. With a long time-horizon, this will pay off.
• So far in my career, I have cofounded a company, taught myself to code, developed a consulting service line and technical product, helped grow that offering into 10+ dedicated employees and the majority of my past firm’s revenue mix, and built out a physical office to train new hires. I love innovation, project-based work, and learning new things. I know there’s a fit out there for me in Climate, I just have to find it.
• My previous role involved quickly learning how a client's business operated by analyzing processes, data structures, and active technologies across all areas of the value chain. I plan to use this same framework to bring me up to speed in the Climate space. I’m eager to learn how companies in my interest areas differ from the manufacturing, CPG, and software companies I’ve seen.

4?? Continue upskilling and formalizing my education as needed to become a leader at my company or in a specific niche

• I can’t write out details for this without knowing what I’m working on yet. I hope to fill this out soon.

That's it for now. I'm excited to look back on this article and gauge it against where I end up. If you made it this far, thanks for reading.

Until next time,

CB