It's Not a 2-3 Week COVID19 Disruption. It's 2-3 Months. I've done the math.

When I was in grade 3, my teacher (who happened to be my father) did an experiment with the class. "Would you rather get a $1 a day for 30 days, or would you rather get a penny but double it each day?" Most of the kids picked the dollar - it's higher!

 Albert Einstein said the most powerful force in the universe was exponential math. And it applies to us now. That penny doubled each day becomes $5.4 Million at the end of the 30 days. 

 It was this that I remembered as I was trying to comprehend the impact of the coronavirus on our system. The R0 - the number of people an infected person infects is 2.5. The average duration to symptoms is around 5 days. That means every week, the number of people infected goes up by 2.5x.  The concerning number for COVID19 is that 5% of people need to be hospitalized - and 2% need respirators. The case fatality rate is 3.4%, but it's probably closer to 1% if we count that not all infected people go to the hospital. 

 Here's how the math works if nothing is done:

Our Healthcare System Can't Take These Numbers  

In Ontario - we only have 25000 hospital beds, and they are already at capacity. Our healthcare system will be overwhelmed like Italy's in short order if nothing is done. That's why everyone is taking action and taking measures to reduce social contact. It's the only way that we can bring the infection rate down.

 But we need to brace ourselves for a longer disruption to our everyday lives. If we get the R0 down to 0.5 that will reduce the transmission rate, but not eliminate it. It's probably not realistic to get it down to 0. But 0.5 means that exponential math works in our favour instead of against us. But we still have a halflife of a week to 14 days. 

 Here's what the math looks like if we assume there are 1500 infected. (Like there is in the States). 

It's Going To Take A While - Be Ready 

It will take 12 weeks to get the cases down to 0. It will take longer for countries like Italy, Iran, and China to bring it down to 0. And it has to brought to 0, because if it's not - the cycle will start all over again and it won't be over until everyone has been infected and there's community immunity to this. Or it might mutate and start the cycle all over again.

 Don't panic. Prepare yourself for a longer disruption. But if we do it now, we'll get through and we'll be stronger for it. 

 Wishing you well.

 Kevin.