ITK Daily | October 6

Happy Thursday.

To be ITK, know this:

Xi Jinping’s last chance to revive the Chinese economy: Consumer spending could become the backbone of a new growth model, but that would require Beijing to relinquish some political control. FT

+ “China is a middle-income economy, it has a long way to go before it becomes a high-income economy,” says Nancy Qian, a Shanghai-born professor of economics at Northwestern University. “I don’t think China is going to become a developed economy or a rich country any time soon.”

+ Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, a foreign policy think-tank, says that China has sustained unusually high levels of investment relative to the size of its economy, both in real estate and infrastructure, for longer than many critics thought possible.

+ Pointing to the increasing reassertion of party-state control over large swaths of the economy under Xi’s banner of “common prosperity,” many China watchers believe that Xi risks not just capping China’s growth, but dismantling some of the economic dynamism that has lasted since Deng.

Xi Jinping’s quest for total control of China is just getting started: As the Chinese leader prepares to complete his elevation to the uncontested paramount leader, he is poised to ramp up, not tamp down, his policy ambitions. WP

+ Since 1989, the Chinese leadership had moved toward what outside observers saw as a more stable system of collective rule. To prevent Mao-style personality cults, senior leaders shared power and the head of state was confined to two five-year terms.

+ Over the last decade, Xi has reversed political changes of the 1980s designed to prevent the over-centralization of power.

+ At a crucial party congress beginning Oct. 16, Xi is set to complete his elevation to the uncontested paramount leader.

+ Central to Xi’s mode of rule is renewed enforcement of the ideological “mass line” within the party — shorthand for following directions set by the top leadership.

US aims to turn Taiwan into giant weapons depot: NYT reports officials say Taiwan needs to become a “porcupine” with enough weapons to hold out if the Chinese military blockades and invades it, even if Washington decides to send troops.

The US has a microchip problem. Safeguarding Taiwan is the solution. A Chinese attack on the island would imperil the world’s supply of semiconductor components. Here’s how to offset that threat. Jason Matheny

+ The whole world hums with microelectronic components—including about 92 percent of all advanced microchips—that are made largely in a handful of factories on an island less than one-tenth the size of California.

+ Were China to seize Taiwan, one of two things could happen to the chip supply: The microchip factories could end up being controlled by China, or they could be destroyed in a conflict.

North Korea fires ballistic missiles as US carrier redeploys: Nikkei reports the move follows Seoul-Washington drills, Pyongyang's recent launch over Japan.

+ The country has fired nearly 40 ballistic missiles over about 20 different launch events this year.

+ The USS Ronald Reagan and South Korean naval ships sail in formation east of the Korean Peninsula.

Russia’s nuclear bluster is a sign of panic: Yielding to Putin’s blackmail would be folly. Eliot A. Cohen

+ To be clear, low-yield (nuclear bomb) can mean a detonation equivalent to 5,000 or 10,000 tons of TNT.

+ Putin, one must always recall, is a former secret policeman, for whom mind games are always the first and rarely the last resort.

+ “Putin is more in a corner than anyone would like him to be, because that’s not good for anybody.”

+ The fight in Ukraine is not, despite what some have said, an existential war for Russia. No one is claiming Russian territory, and no Ukrainian army is going to drive to Moscow.

+ The Ukraine war may be approaching its culminating point. All along, the prospect of Russian military collapse has been real: Many wars end with one or more spectacular defeats that dramatically change moods and atmospheres, front lines, and governments.

+ Pope John Paul II, who knew the Soviets all too well, repeated incessantly during dark times, “Be not afraid.” We should heed his counsel.

How the war in Ukraine has remade Europe David Ignatius

+ Many months of bloody fighting probably lie ahead, with the danger growing that Russia might use tactical nuclear weapons in an effort to stave off defeat.

+ Just three years ago, French President Emmanuel Macron pronounced that NATO was suffering “brain death.”

+ The war in Ukraine has largely reversed Europe’s phobia about the utility of military power — and the value of a strong alliance with the United States.

+ The last time Sweden joined a European alliance was in Napoleon’s time, more than 200 years ago.

+ When triumphal talk is in the air, it pays to be skeptical. Wars don’t end easily or neatly. But the changes that the Ukraine conflict brought to the European mood seem real, and they could last for decades.

Ukraine faces critical battle in the south before winter, US says: FT reports Western allies warn muddy conditions will soon make fighting treacherous in strategic regions.

Miami tops FT-Nikkei ranking of best US cities for foreign businesses.

+ Orlando, New York, and Boston round out leading cities in the inaugural Investing in America report

MIA for the win.

福特 hikes price of electric F-150 pickup again on rising supply costs: Bloomberg reports the F-150 Lightning Pro now starts at $51,974, up 30% from the original price in May.

Elon Musk’s Twitter will be a wild ride: His deal to buy the company is back on. Here are six predictions about Twitter under Musk’s control if it happens. NYT

+ He’s going to clean house, starting with firing Twitter’s chief executive, Parag Agrawal.

+ Employees will revolt.

+ Donald Trump will return to Twitter, along with a swarm of other right-wing culture warriors.

Elon Musk’s everything app ‘X’ is a bad idea: Do we really want a capricious business titan to have all of our personal information and buying habits at his fingertips? Parmy Olson

+ Musk is not simply buying Twitter to make it better. He claims a much grander plan: creating an “everything app” that does whatever you need.

+ Several so-called “super apps” have long existed in Asia. More than a billion Chinese citizens use QR codes through Tencent Holdings Ltd.’s WeChat to do all manner of tasks, from buying groceries to booking a dentist appointment, sharing photos with friends or playing video games. They can access a government-issued ID card through WeChat too.

+ It’s probably not the best idea for someone as volatile as Musk to oversee an app on which millions engage in social commentary, payments, shopping, identification, and more.

The CD turns 40: How the ‘shiny, tiny’ discs took over: A coalition of label marketers worked with MTV, radio stations, and music stars to sell skeptical executives on the format — and delivered a boom that lasted for nearly 20 years. Billboard

+ On October 1, 1982, in Japan, Billy Joel‘s 52nd Street became the first-ever CD to go on sale.

+ "Packaging was a big issue. It was an expensive item, and retailers didn’t want it to be stolen. They had 12 x 12 fixtures to hold LPs. That’s what gave me the notion to have the CD package in a 6 x 12 format."

TikTok politics and the era of embodied memes: Welcome to the vibes-based political culture. Charlie Warzel

+ "There are two big value propositions for TikTok users. First, there’s great, intuitive, and powerful editing software, which makes it very compelling for casual users who want to make something with minimal effort. Second is the recommendation-forward approach, which makes it much less of a social network than other platforms."

+ "On YouTube, only 18 percent of commenters we looked at created five or more videos. On TikTok, the number was 78 percent."

+ "It seems like more people naturally are able to put out a decent TikTok video than, say, can write a very good tweet. And that sounds flippant, but I actually think it matters. It’s an era of social video taking off."

+ "Text just isn’t as good at capturing this medium. Then, there’s a problem of information density, which is I think why text loses in comparison. People are always looking for more information that’s faster and easier to digest. And video just encodes so much more information than text."

+ "One of Marshall McLuhan’s students, Walter Ong, spoke a lot about the new orality or the second orality. The idea is that oral culture was the default state of humans before text. There’s an idea through visual mediums of moving past text and returning to that state."

+ "But I’d argue that TikTok takes it further. It’s that embodied visual medium that is actually more embodied even than oral culture. It’s clearly closer to the natural experience of talking with another person than storytelling."

It looks as if there is no one who can hold the Tory coalition together: During the leadership campaign, it was obvious that there was a big difference in policy between the two halves of the coalition – and it is a bigger difference than between the one-nation Tories and the Labour Party. John Rentoul

+ NYT Breaking News: President Biden pardoned everyone convicted of marijuana possession under federal law and said the US will review how the drug is classified.

Alberta to be 1st province to regulate psychedelics for therapy, government says: CBC reports the province also adding new restrictions for prescribing high-potency narcotics.

+ Researchers are increasingly studying the use of psychedelic drugs like psilocybin, commonly known as magic mushrooms.

Ross Rant: Thoughts on living with the Flintstones and the Jetsons. Full post here.

"Increasingly, we live in a world where the Flintstones meet the Jetsons--and the Flintstones don't much like it." -- Ralph Peters

Worth a read: The Culture of Future Conflict by Ralph Peters. Parameters (1995)

Brigadoon Monthly Call with Lawrence Peryer: Lawrence is the Chief Commercial Officer at Lyte.

+ The focus of the call will be a conversation at the crossroads of technology, creative media, commerce, and community.

+ Wednesday - October 19 at 2:00 pm ET.

For more details and signup, click here.

Why are American homes so big? The US is in the top tier of house sizes internationally—and it’s not just because of McMansions. Joe Pinsker

+ The median size of an American single-family home is in the neighborhood of 1,600 or 1,650 square feet.

+ “The [former] British colonies have a McMansion problem, and I think part of it is cultural,” says Kate Wagner, an architecture critic and the creator of the blog McMansion Hell.

+ “It’s a really expensive way to live, not only in having to travel to the city, having to travel to work, [but] having to travel 15 minutes to get a gallon of milk—all so you can have a really big house.” -- Kate Wagner

Paradiso, a bar hidden behind a pastrami shop in the El Born neighborhood of Barcelona, has been named the top drinking spot by World’s 50 Best Bars.

+ It’s the first time an establishment outside New York or London has won the prize.

+ New York still maintains a powerful grip on the list. Six Big Apple bars are included in the top 50.

How alcohol lost its cool: A third of pub visits are now alcohol-free, but drinking has been losing its cred in pop culture for a while now. Daisy Jones

+ According to a 2022 survey from Drinkaware, 26 percent of 16 to 24-year-olds in the UK are now “fully teetotal.”

+ In August, a report from KAM and Lucky Saint found that almost a third of all pub visits are now alcohol-free.

+ The non-alcoholic beverages market has grown by over 506 percent since 2015.

+ Google searches for "sober curious" peaked in 2021 following the pandemic.

Victor Wembanyama, basketball’s next big thing, knows no bounds WP

+ Victor Wembanyama, 18, the consensus favorite to be the top pick in the 2023 NBA draft

+ Wembanyamahas re portedly been measured at 7-4 without shoes

+ Wembanyama wears Nikes in size 55 in Europe, equivalent to a size 20.5 in the United States.

+ Wembanyama is seen as an off-the-charts basketball prodigy who is among the most captivating prospects in the history of the sport.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

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