ITK Daily | October 25

Happy Tuesday.

To be ITK, know this:

+ @alexbward: NEW: Congressional Progressive Caucus is considering a retraction of the Ukraine letter.

RIP: Ash Carter

+ @DanLamothe: "It is with deep and profound sadness that the family of former Secretary of Defense Ashton B. Carter shares that Secretary Carter passed away Monday evening in Boston after a sudden cardiac event at the age of 68." Ash Carter served in the Pentagon in numerous capacities. RIP.

Rishi Sunak brings stability and hope back to No 10: After the chaos of the past few months, this sensible appointment shows the British political system is functioning again. William Hague

+ "Never in my time observing politics have I felt such a mixture of relief, trepidation, and hope."

+ "The next two years look like being the most difficult and dangerous the world has seen in decades. Hardship for tens of millions is coming globally. Most governments that face elections will not survive them. This is going to be rough."

+ "Being the opposition over the past few months has been exceptionally easy. If faced with a more united, purposeful, and respected ministerial team, Labour will need to generate some excitement rather than be the default option."

How Xi Jinping remade China in his image: Xi has inserted himself into every corner of Chinese life, leaving no room for anointed successors. NYT

+ Xi’s reach into everyday Chinese life is almost certain to grow even more — in a country where he is already seemingly everywhere.

+ Xi’s central message is that he alone has the ability to lead China to glory.

+ He has framed his policies, such as “zero Covid” and an aggressive posture toward Taiwan, as the only way for China to prove itself on the world stage.

+ Xi as “the Core”

+ “Xi Jinping Thought”

China’s strongman is here to stay. And weaker than he looks. Xi is facing slowing growth and implementing politicized economic policies that could become his Achilles’ heel. Politico

+ “Xi Jinping has made it clear that his preference is a command economy ... very much focused on control and secrecy.” -- Dexter Roberts, Atlantic Council

Japanese companies explore how to go 'zero-China' amid tensions: Disruption of shipments from China could cost production value of $360bn. Nikkei

+ China accounts for more than 30% of Honda's global sales, and the company's policy of making China a mainstay of its earnings will not change in the future.

+ If 80% of Japan's imports from China -- about 1.4 trillion yen ($9.4 billion) worth, including raw materials and parts -- were disrupted for two months, Japan would not be able to produce a wide range of products, including home appliances, cars, resins, clothing and food products.

+ Japan has particularly strong ties with China. That country accounted for 26% of Japan's total imports as of 2020, larger than the US (19%) and Germany (11%).

+ According to Owls Consulting Group, a Tokyo-based supply chain research firm, if 80 major products, including home appliances and cars, were to stop imports from China and switch to domestic production or procurement from other regions, costs would increase by 13.7 trillion yen annually. That is 70% of the total net income of manufacturing companies listed on the Prime Market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

+ Using QUICK FactSet, it is possible to classify the world's approximately 13,000 companies by percentage of sales in China, and compare their average stock prices to those at the end of 2009. The stock prices of companies with a China ratio ranging from under 50% to 75% are currently about 10% lower than at the end of 2009.

Intel CEO calls new US restrictions on chip exports to China inevitable: WSJ reports the chip executive said rules are part of a rebalancing of the supply chain in US technology competition with China.

+ @JChengWSJ: Intel's CEO said US restrictions on chip-industry exports to China were "inevitable." “Where the oil reserves are defined geopolitics for the last five decades. Where the fabs are for the next five decades is more important.”

Africa’s headed for a climate showdown with rich nations: African leaders say industrialized countries should pay to save the planet rather than expecting them to forego oil and gas development. Bloomberg

+ Developing nations need financing to help cope with worsening storms, droughts, and floods.

+ When Senegalese President Macky Sall convened an Africa Climate Adaptation Summit in Rotterdam last month, the idea was to bring together countries that need help adapting to a warming planet with industrialized nations whose emissions are to blame. Only the African leaders showed up.

+ The continent is the world’s least developed and produces just 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions but it’s due to suffer some of the worst consequences of increasingly extreme weather.

+ Global warming is considered as the biggest risk to society in the next five to 10 years for the second year in a row, according to a report released Sunday by French insurance giant AXA SA. Geopolitical instability, which ranked fourth last year, has risen to second place.

US executives are flocking to Saudi "Davos in the Desert": NYT reports some top American business leaders are headed to the Saudi business conference. But Biden administration officials, angry over the kingdom’s stance on oil production and ties with Russia, are staying away.

Christendom by Peter Heather: The bloody history of its success: The remarkable transformation of Christianity from a fringe sect to world religion — with all the gory bits left in. The Times

+ Christianity’s rise from a fringe sect in Palestine to a leading world religion traditionally pivots on the Roman emperor Constantine’s conversion in the 4th century AD.

+ The broader lesson is that when we think about medieval Christianity we must remember that it developed lurchingly and unpredictably, and that the decisions of “great men” loom unfashionably large in its history.

YouTube’s new redesign is built to feel more like TV: Through subtle effects, the experience of watching YouTube is about to feel more colorful and immersive. Oh, and you can pinch-to-zoom now, too. Fast Company

+ There’s no experience quite like watching a movie in the dark. Whether it’s the TV in your living room, or a big screen in the theater, the world disappears into shadows as the colorful content takes over your consciousness. Now, designers at YouTube are attempting to capture that same phenomenon on your phone and laptop.

+ YouTube’s dark mode, formerly a deep gray, is now a deep black. The deeper black is a psychological hack—built to exploit the Bartleson-Breneman Effect, a perceptual theory that states that as a background becomes darker, an image appears lighter.

+ Modeled after how TVs are often built with dark frames that recede into the background to make colors pop, YouTube’s new interface is meant to make every bit of content on the platform more vibrant and immersive.

The end of Apple’s affair with China: Economist reports that COVID-19, costs, and geopolitics are driving the iPhone-maker to manufacture and sell its gadgets elsewhere.

The company once known as Restoration Hardware is opening restaurants. Why? The furnishings store has moved into the hospitality business — but the food may not be the point. NYT

+ The home-design company RH has opened 15 restaurants across the United States and Canada since 2015.

+ Each restaurant earns an average of $10 million annually, said Gary Friedman, the company’s chief executive. (That’s more than 10 times the annual sales of a typical restaurant in the United States, according to a 2022 report from the National Restaurant Association.)

First lithium mining project launched in France: Le Monde reports on Monday, Imerys, the world leader in industrial specialty minerals, announced the start of a major mining project in Echassières, in the Allier region.

As Britain’s economy stumbles, one sector is booming: Whisky: Scotch whisky exports have soared this year. The weak British pound could spur even more demand for single malt scotch. NYT

+ The volume of whisky exports from Britain has grown over the past two years, including a 10.5 percent increase during the 12 months ending in July over the same period the year before, according to government data.

+ About 90 percent of Scotch is exported, according to the Scotch Whisky Association, the trade body for the industry. The most valuable market is the United States, where nearly ￡1 billion ($1.1 billion) of whisky was exported in the past year.

Amazon will take a stake in the parent of Hawaiian Airlines as part of a cargo-hauling deal.

Betting against a blue wave Patrick Basham

+ Democrats are likely to face insurmountable partisan, demographic, and policy challenges during the final weeks of midterm election campaigning.

+ Three partisan developments especially lengthen the Democrats’ odds:

- A higher percentage of registered Republicans than registered Democrats will vote for their own party

- Registered independents continue to favor the Republicans by a 16-point margin

- Demographically, Democrats are actually in very bad shape

+ Presidential approval ratings below 50 percent portend poor outcomes for the incumbent party’s candidates, especially in the midterm of a president’s first term.

+ Democrats maintain an 11.3 million national registration advantage, which stems from heavily populated, solidly blue states, including California, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York.

+ A plurality of voters polled by the Democracy Institute now say Democrats represent the wealthy elite, whereas a majority say Republicans represent ordinary people.

Republicans are having a messy breakup with corporate America. They feel fine: House GOP candidates have decided they don't need corporate money, and big business doesn't want to deal with the baggage — or the insurrection. Rolling Stone

+ The Republican National Committee sued Google, accusing it of directing the party’s political emails to users’ spam folders.

A Trump presidential bid would be unusual in many ways: For starters, it’s rare to have a nomination frontrunner who can’t be counted on to be loyal to the party. Jonathan Bernstein

+ To begin with, no party has had a former president run for their nomination since Teddy Roosevelt did it in 1912.

+ And even that isn’t an ideal comparison because Roosevelt was running as a third-party challenger against a sitting Republican president, William Howard Taft.

+ The last time a former president tried to capture the nomination of an out-of-power party was when Grover Cleveland did it — winning the nomination and the presidency — in 1892.

Breathtaking images from the 2022 UK Landscape Photographer of the Year: Glorious scenes from around the UK captured by this year’s entrants. The Times

A cutting-edge music festival in Uganda keeps the beat: Despite being called “immoral” by some politicians, this year’s Nyege Nyege festival celebrated diversity and innovation in contemporary African music. NYT

+ Nyege Nyege is East Africa’s biggest electronic music festival, and its sixth physical edition this year attracted 15,000 visitors from across Africa and Europe.

Taylor Swift’s new album breaks Spotify streaming record: Guardian reports the star thanks fans for helping new release, Midnights, break the record for the most-streamed album in a single day.

Toto Wolff, the compulsive perfectionist behind Mercedes’s Formula 1 team: Mercedes drivers, including Lewis Hamilton, dominated the world’s fastest motorsport for a decade. Now they can’t win a race. New Yorker

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

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