ITK Daily | November 17

Happy Thursday.

Here’s today’s ITK Daily.

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India will become the world’s most populous country in 2023.

G20 leaders agree to declaration against war, pressuring Russia: WSJ reports major economies overcame divisions to put out a joint statement that focused on the economic fallout of the Ukraine conflict.

CNN: CIA director visits Kyiv amid Russian missile strikes across Ukraine

Xi Jinping filmed scolding Justin Trudeau over leaks to media: The Times reports Xi was caught on camera at the G20 summit scolding Trudeau over alleged leaks of their private conversation to the media.

+ The video footage captured a rare candid moment for the Chinese president, whose image is carefully curated by Chinese state media.

Toronto businessman allegedly focus of Chinese interference probes: sources: A prominent businessman in Toronto’s Chinese community is the subject of two separate investigations involving foreign interference, sources tell Global News, both related to a series of briefings and memos that Canadian security officials allegedly gave to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau beginning in January. Global News

+ The Canadian Security Intelligence Service has investigated Wei Chengyi for his alleged role in a covert scheme that facilitated large-fund transfers meant to advance Beijing’s interests in Canada’s 2019 federal election, sources said.

As Xi reemerges, Europe again falls prey to China’s divide-and-rule tactics: Xi met European national leaders to push his economic agenda, but shunned Brussels representatives, who see him as a ‘systemic’ rival. Politico

+ China conspicuously revived its long-established tactic of courting specific EU countries and their national interests, something it has often used to destabilize Brussels.

+ China took the canny nation-to-nation approach, meeting Macron, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, Italy's Giorgia Meloni, and the Netherlands' Mark Rutte, while avoiding European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel.

Analysis: Xi Jinping's path to greater power goes through Taiwan: Chinese president does not show Joe Biden his 'leader for life' road map. Nikkei

+ At the end of October, many foreign companies that operate in Taiwan began preparing evacuation plans in case a war broke out. The debate at the recently-closed Chinese Communist Party national congress had a large part to do with this trend.

+ "Since the second half of October, we have been flooded with inquiries from headquarters about our business continuity plan," one foreign company executive in Taiwan said. "It's hard to get any work done."

+ The global community has no choice but to brace itself for a perpetual crisis, ostensibly over Taiwan, at least for the next five years.

The French army is preparing for high-intensity war: Le Monde reports siting changing geopolitical relations and the 'prospect of a major conflict,' the French army will begin a large-scale exercise in 2023, involving some 20,000 soldiers.

China playing ‘long game’ as it co-opts UK assets, warns MI5 chief: FT reports that the domestic security agency is making ‘biggest shift in a generation’ as it also contends with threats from Russia and Iran.

MI5 spy chief says Russia, China, Iran top threat list to UK: AP reports Ken McCallum, director-general of MI5, added to mounting warnings from British authorities about Russia’s aggression and China’s growing assertiveness. But he singled out Iran as the state “which most frequently crosses into terrorism,” saying UK authorities have uncovered at least 10 “potential threats” this year to “kidnap or even kill British or UK-based individuals perceived as enemies of the regime.”

The Times: US-UK trade deal is off the table as Rishi Sunak and Joe Biden meet

COP27: Lula promises to protect the Amazon: Le Monde reports Brazil's president-elect vowed to crack down on illegal deforestation and rebuild relationships with countries financing the protection of the rainforest.

‘Brazil is back’: At COP27, Lula vows to be a global climate leader: President-elect meets with US envoy and China’s top negotiator, a sign of the urgency to engage with Brazilian leader on climate issues. WP

+ It is unusual for a politician who does not yet formally hold office to dive into international negotiations in a format such as the climate talks — Lula takes the reins on Jan. 1.

+ Lula offered to host a future UN climate conference, suggesting it could be held in the Amazon region.

AP: Foreign trip becomes victory lap for strengthened Biden

Biden flexes his political muscle abroad while Trump’s shadow reemerges at home. Politico reports the president wraps up a week of high-stakes diplomacy in a split-screen moment with his predecessor.

Crypto and the dollar are partners, not rivals: The disruptions of COVID and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have shown the strength of the Western system and the weakness of China’s. Niall Ferguson

+ The Spanish conquests in the New World transformed the global economy by increasing the supply of silver and gold, much of it used to pay for the Habsburgs’ European wars.

+ The expansion of the British Empire exported the gold standard, creating a new and more stable international monetary system in which sterling was the dominant currency.

+ The events of the past two years — first the Covid-19 pandemic and now the Russian invasion of Ukraine — have been sufficiently disruptive to make another shift in the global monetary order seem likely. But what form will it take?

+ Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are attractive assets to hold in unstable places and at unstable times.

+ In war one needs more than assets that retain or gain value. It is much more important to be able to make payments to domestic and foreign vendors in return for the stuff you need from them.

+ If China plans to build an alternative payments architecture to the one dominated by American and European institutions, it has a very, very long way to go.

+ In 2021, the US currency was used in 40% of all international payments by total transaction value. In second place was the euro. The Chinese currency came a miserable fourth — just 2.7% — behind even sterling.

+ There are now between 10,000 and 20,000 different cryptocurrencies in existence, according to CoinMarketCap.

+ According to a report from the blockchain analytics firm Elliptic, around $10 billion in DeFi projects was lost to various hacks and scams in 2021.

+ Countries that have banned the use of crypto for payments and Bitcoin mining: China, Algeria, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Egypt, Morocco, and Nepal.

+ According to a recent Morning Consult survey, 20% of American adults and 36% of millennials own cryptocurrency.

Trump is running in 2024. The White House has a plan. The president’s advisers have been working on a strategy for how the White House will respond to what they expect will be a constant stream of attacks from Trump. NYT

+ Trump got more than 11 million additional votes in 2020 than he did in 2016.

+ A New York Times/Siena poll from last month had Trump with a 52 percent unfavorability rating, better than Biden’s 58 percent job disapproval rating.

NYT: Pence on Trump’s 2024 run: ‘I think we’ll have better choices’

+ Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Wednesday that former President Trump is unfit for office, and he does not want him to run for president in 2024.

Bloomberg: DeSantis tells Republicans eager for a battle with Trump to ‘chill out a little bit’

Ron DeSantis has reached a perilous point: Inevitability: Can you recall another politician who seemed like an Inevitable Candidate for their party and time? Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Gary Hart, Thomas Dewey, Robert A. Taft... Dan Zak

OH-SEN: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) announced he will seek a fourth term in 2024.

Amna Nawaz + Geoff Bennett are taking over as co-anchors of PBS News ’s nightly newscast.

Protocol , the tech-focused news site launched by the founder of Politico, has shut down.

AP: NASA’s mightiest moon rocket lifts off 50 years after Apollo

NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Moon: On Monday, the Orion spacecraft will pass within 60 miles of the moon’s surface. After going around the moon for a couple of weeks, Orion will head back to Earth, splashing down on December 11 in the Pacific Ocean, about 60 miles off the coast of San Diego.

The Verge: Taylor Swift crashed Ticketmaster following ‘historically unprecedented demand’ for tickets

Angry Taylor Swift fans rail about Ticketmaster glitches: WP reports the ticket seller’s technology stumbles left many Swifties waiting in online queues for hours and feeling mutinous as her new tour went on sale.

苹果 ’s US chip move is as much about marketing as technology: The iPhone maker is eager to crow about US-manufactured chips. But it’s more for show than a real move back to America. Tim Culpan

Airbnb makes renewed push to boost supply as rental rates soar: FT reports chief executive Brian Chesky introduces measures to address the inflated cost of using accommodation site.

Bird, the once-popular scooter start-up, said it may need to file for bankruptcy if it can’t raise more money.

Meta , Lyft , Salesforce , and other tech firms dump office space as they downsize: WSJ reports the retreat is a blow to the office market and to many cities, which have relied on the sector’s real estate appetite to power growth.

福特 is building its first new auto plant in 53 years. That’s stirring mixed emotions: The massive BlueOval City near Memphis is part of Ford’s broader shift south. Bloomberg

The crypto Ponzi scheme avenger: From his home in New Zealand, the YouTuber Danny de Hek assails what he calls a dangerous and deceptive scheme, one rant at a time. NYT

+ de Hek is one of the few voices flagging crypto-based Ponzi schemes, which US investigators say are a severely underpublicized scourge.

Bloomberg: Crypto lender BlockFi plans bankruptcy filing within days in FTX fallout

+ The crypto lender continues to limit activity on its platform

+ Sudden collapse of FTX is threatening the future of crypto firms

Atlantic CEO Nicholas Thompson learned that sleep is the only thing that works: GQ caught up with the author, editor, and extremely impressive amateur marathoner about his productivity routine: Trello boards, timers, and the lessons he's learned from running. GQ

Best places to visit in 2023 Lonely Planet

World Cup favorites Brazil bank on European lessons and attacking talent: The tournament’s most successful country has sought to catch up with organized, high-pressing rivals. FT

+ Brazil was knocked out of four World Cups from 2006 to 2018 by a different western European country. The “divine canary”, a nickname one Dutch writer gave to the great Brazilian teams after the players’ yellow shirts, was feared extinct.

+ Brazil still need to prove they can cope with European (and especially western European) organization and pace. They haven’t met a team from the continent since beating the Czech Republic in March 2019. But it’s possible that in Qatar, we’ll spot the re-emergence of the divine canary.

The last dance for the Messi-Ronaldo generation: Qatar 2022 is setting up as a monthlong curtain call for some of the sport’s all-time greats. WSJ

AFP: Maradona 'Hand of God' ball fetches ￡2 million at auction

New York City FC will finally have a permanent home after the club announced plans for a 25,000-capacity venue in the Willets Point neighborhood in Queens.

Global News: Calgary Flames’ Harvey the Hound is the worst mascot in the NHL, fans say

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

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