ITK Daily | November 10

Happy Thursday.

Here’s today’s ITK Daily.

To be ITK, know this:

Russia abandons Ukrainian city of Kherson in major retreat: Reuters reports Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu on Wednesday ordered his troops to withdraw from the occupied Ukrainian city of Kherson and take up defensive lines on the opposite bank of the River Dnipro.

+ The announcement marked one of Russia's most significant retreats and a potential turning point in the war, now nearing the end of its ninth month.

Putin’s nuclear threats may hint at an electromagnetic pulse strike: Launching such a weapon over Ukraine would be lethal to Kyiv’s information warfare systems. Roger Pardo-Maurer?

+ These weapons — designed to create a powerful pulse of energy which short-circuits electrical equipment such as computers, generators, satellites, radios, radar receivers, and even traffic lights — could disable Ukraine’s military and civilian infrastructure at a stroke and leave the country without light, heat, communications or transport.

+ A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory. But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter

+ The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.

+ A relatively small nuclear EMP, easily deployed at high altitude by Russia’s hypersonic Zircon cruise missiles, might not destroy any buildings or kill anybody. But it could permanently disable electrical circuits over thousands of square miles of Ukrainian territory.

+ Under Russian military doctrine, EMP strikes are a branch of information, cyber and electronic warfare rather than nuclear warfare. This lowers the bar and may render EMPs even more tempting to Putin’s beleaguered generals.

Bloomberg: Putin to skip G20 Indonesia summit, facing cold shoulder

+ Kremlin to send Foreign Minister Lavrov in Putin’s place

+ Tensions over Ukraine invasion to dominate meetings in Bali

Today: Biden will leave for Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, for the COP27 conference.

AP: France sets its military goals as war is back in Europe

Macron ends France's Africa mission, ponders new strategy: AFP reports Macron announced that France was ending its Barkhane anti-jihadist mission in Africa after over a decade. The declaration came in a wide-ranging speech reviewing France's strategy where the president also underlined the importance of its nuclear deterrent, as well as relations with Germany and the United Kingdom despite recent tensions.

+ Le tilt.?

+ "France's role as a balancing power in the Indo-Pacific must be reaffirmed. To this end, France is committed to building partnerships with countries in the Indo-Pacific region, notably India, Australia, and Japan, as well as Indonesia and Singapore."

Brazil’s President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva appointed a mix of liberal and left-leaning economists to his government transition team, reflecting the broad coalition that helped him defeat Jair Bolsonaro last month.

Trudeau accuses China of 'aggressive' election interference: BBC reports Trudeau accused Beijing of playing "aggressive games" with democracies and of targeting Canadian institutions.

+ At least 11 candidates were supported by China in the 2019 federal elections.

+ The operation, which was reportedly directed from China's consulate in Toronto, also sought to place operatives within the offices of serving MPs in an attempt to influence policy.

Bloomberg: Trudeau envoy labels China ‘increasingly disruptive’ force

+ Canadian minister offers a preview of Indo-Pacific strategy

+ Foreign Minister Melanie Joly warns that businesses need to be ‘clear-eyed’ about risks

MPs request emergency meeting on ‘troubling’ Chinese interference allegations: Global News reports Canadian Members of Parliament are requesting an emergency House of Commons committee meeting in light of what they call a “troubling” report first published by Global News that China has allegedly been targeting Canada with a vast campaign of foreign interference.

Will China's emboldened Xi Jinping take a gamble on Taiwan? China's leader holds more power than ever before. Beijing denies having an accelerated timeline for Taiwan's "reunification," but defense analysts say military preparation has been ongoing for years. DW

+ "There's almost no prospect for peaceful politically-driven unification between China and Taiwan as it now stands because Beijing is completely unwilling to adopt a different approach that takes into account the interest of the people of Taiwan." -- Drew Thompson

Xi Jinping needs to bring Jack Ma back into the fold: China’s president banished the tech billionaire as part of a crackdown. He now needs that entrepreneurial boost. Shuli Ren

+ Two years of regulatory crackdown, endless COVID-Zero lockdowns, as well as confusing party slogans have sapped China’s entrepreneurial spirit just when Xi needs it the most.

苹果 ’s bargain with Beijing: Access to China’s factories — and consumers: iPhone maker now more profitable than local tech giants but is vulnerable to supply shocks. FT

+ The most profitable tech company operating in China is not a homegrown internet giant such as Alibaba or Tencent, but California-based Apple.

+ Apple’s reliance on the country as its manufacturing base — with responsibility for 95 percent of iPhone production, according to Counterpoint, a market intelligence group — leaves the business vulnerable to supply chain shocks.

Singapore wants open supply chains as US levels chip curbs: Bloomberg reports Minister of Foreign Affairs Vivian Balakrishnan said supply chain divisions would lead to inflation, supply chain disruptions, slower technological progress, and “further disrupt global systems.” The way forward would be a multilateral network for science, technology, and supply chains.

+ While Balakrishnan acknowledged the US concern that advancements in critical technologies can transform foreign militaries and ultimately threaten US national security, Washington’s latest controls amount to “all but a declaration of a technology war.”

+ “The absence of strategic trust will lead both sides to always assume the worst, and will almost certainly lead to a mutually escalatory vicious downward spiral.”

+ The German government is expected to formally bar the sale of Dortmund-based Elmos’s semiconductor plant to China-owned Silex Microsystems following a cabinet meeting.

EU to probe 微软 ’s $75 billion deal for Activision Blizzard more deeply: WSJ reports the watchdog group says it is concerned the acquisition could reduce competition in the global video gaming industry.

As the Third Pole melts, climate diplomacy is hard to come by: Intertwined climate crises are about to hit countries along the Himalayan mountain range, requiring more cross-border coordination and support. Bloomberg

+ With the world on track to surpass 1.5C of warming over pre-industrial levels, some two-thirds of Third Pole ice is set to melt away by the end of the century.?

+ A coalition of scientists and diplomats, including the research initiative Third Pole Environment and the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), the only intergovernmental platform in the region, are calling for more action from policymakers.?

Latest 2022 US Elections: Results here.

+ @Redistrict: Well, that was the craziest Election Night I’ve ever seen.

Maxwell Alejandro Frost, 25, will officially become the first Gen Z member of Congress after winning his race to represent FL-10.

+ The district is entirely within Orange County and includes most of the western half of Orlando.

Ron DeSantis has moved Florida from purple to red: The Republican governor’s landslide victory shows he will be a formidable rival to Donald Trump. Ramesh Ponnuru

+ The realignment of Miami-Dade County, in particular, has been seismic. Whoever the Democrats nominate for president in two years will have to think hard before putting resources into contesting the state.

+ His governance is looking politically astute. It looks even better because some of Trump’s candidates have fizzled.

Did Ron DeSantis just become the 2024 Republican front-runner? Ross Douthat

+ A red wave swept Florida, but elsewhere, it barely lapped the shore.

+ Crucially, the DeSantis theory emphasizes “normal” doesn’t have to mean “squishy.”

+ Powerful narratives have a way of burying caveats and doubts, and right now, it looks as if DeSantis will be able to sell himself as the Republican who overperformed amid general underperformance.

+ In a normal political world, a normal political party, you would say that DeSantis effectively became the 2024 Republican front-runner last night. Nothing about the GOP has been normal since Trump descended that escalator in 2015, so I won’t be claiming anything so definite.

The Republican elite makes its move against Trump: Ready for DeSantis. Jonathan Chait

+ He can call Trump a loser, and if Trump insists the election was stolen, DeSantis will berate him for letting the election get stolen.

+ DeSantis will never have Trump’s skills as a television performer. But having the support of a unified party apparatus is a commanding advantage.?

Meta lays off more than 11,000 employees: NYT reports the parent of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp reduced its workforce by 13 percent and extended a hiring freeze through the first quarter of next year.

WSJ: Binance walks away from FTX deal

+ @business: Sam Bankman-Fried told FTX investors that the company needs a cash injection, or else it would need to file for bankruptcy

WSJ: Redfin shuts home-flipping business, lays off 13% of staff in slumping housing market

Touring our industrial past: Rivers of steel highlights Pittsburgh's place in history. Pittsburgh Quarterly Magazine

+ “What happened here in southwestern Pennsylvania wasn’t just important to this region, but it is a story of the building of the modern world,” says Augie Carlino, Rivers of Steel president and CEO.?

+ While some groups had tinkered with the idea of preserving the region’s industrial heritage and culture, the movement got its defining impetus with the 1996 passage of the National Heritage Areas Act. The legislation set the groundwork for the creation of 55 such zones across the country, including the Rivers of Steel National Heritage Area.

Twitter complaint hotline operator: @elonmusk: Please note that Twitter will do lots of dumb things in coming months. We will keep what works & change what doesn’t.

+ @RexHuppke: As a renowned business expert, I can tell you that the two things advertisers love most are "lots of dumb things" and ongoing instability.

Why middle-aged Messi and Modri? are still the world’s best: The most talented players heading to this tournament are in their mid-to-late 30s. What’s going on? FT

+ A crop of men born between 1985 and 1988 are among the biggest names going to this World Cup.

+ When The Athletic website last year gauged “peak player age” by analyzing which players in the Premier League got the most playing minutes, it concluded: about 27 years old for center-backs and strikers, 26 for wingers, and 25 for full-backs and central midfielders.

+ With age, a brilliant player learns to pick the best option from his toolkit.

AFP: Schumacher Ferrari fetches record $15 mn at auction

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

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