ITK Daily | November 1
Happy Tuesday Afternoon.
Here’s today’s ITK Daily | Annotated Edition.
To be ITK, know this:
Looking for a speaker who can discuss geopolitical business intelligence with accessible language and good cheer? If yes, let's have a chat. More deets here.
Jail term to a third term: The story of Lula's historic comeback: Books, love, and diehard support helped Lula survive jail and take back Brazil’s presidency. But he inherits a changed country, and the challenges still ahead are daunting. Bloomberg
+ With his second-round victory over Jair Bolsonaro, Lula, 77, is set to return to the helm of Latin America’s largest economy having pulled off one of the most spectacular political comebacks in Brazil’s history.
+ There’s no doubt the 580 days Lula spent behind bars in 2018 and 2019 marked him for life. When the country turned its back on 14 years of a leftist government and elected Bolsonaro, 67, a far-right former army captain, Lula’s friends feared for his mental health.
+ In jail, Lula went on to read 41 books, mostly biographies, of leaders including Nelson Mandela, Fidel Castro, Hugo Chavez and Carlos Marighella, who led an armed movement against the Brazilian military dictatorship.
+ He also received 25,000 letters sent by friends, fans — and his future wife, Janja.
+ In office, he’ll face a hostile congress, while the three most populous states, including Sao Paulo, are held by the opposition. Across the country, a sizable minority think their once-and-future president is corrupt.
+ The next government will have to be a coalition that restores Brazil “to the normality of democracy,” with social inclusion at the heart of its economic policies, Edinho Silva, Lula’s campaign chief, said in an interview.
+ Lula has made it clear that he will lead Brazil for the next four years only. Some in the Workers’ Party see Janja, 55, who’s been a strong presence during the campaign, as his successor in 2026.
+ President-elect Lula da Silva: “We will not accept a new Cold War between the United States and China. We will have relations with everyone.”
CCP is a black box: I worked on the US-China commercial relationship daily for nearly 6 years. I have read two dozen books on China. I can speak with 100 foreign policy pros and reporters. None of which is helpful in understanding why Hu Jintao was escorted from the Party Congress.
Chaguan: China and America are barely speaking, though crises loom: A comfortless calm reigns, but a storm is coming. Economist
+ Xi’s report to the party congress cataloged threats to national security, including attempts by unnamed forces (meaning America, above all) to sabotage, subvert, and contain China’s rise. He stressed the need for China to show a fighting spirit and achieve greater self-reliance, especially in core technologies.
US to deploy B-52 bombers to Australia as tensions with China mount: FT reports Washington and Canberra forge closer links to counter Beijing in the Indo-Pacific.
Ukraine war will make China think twice about invading Taiwan: Uncertainty about sanctions, resistance, and combat capability weigh on Beijing. James Stavridis
+ How would the Chinese military perform in large-scale, challenging combat operations?
+ Xi must be asking himself if his generals and admirals -- trained in the old Soviet model like their Russian counterparts -- would fare any better in actual combat?
+ The Chinese are well aware that their military has not engaged in sustained combat since the Korean War, in the early 1950s.
+ A second question involves the Taiwanese. Would they fight as hard and effectively as the Ukrainians have?
+ Beijing has to wonder whether the West would impose as severe sanctions as they have against Russia.
+ From the Chinese perspective, Beijing reasonably judges that its economy, at around 17% of global gross domestic product, is too big to sanction.
+ Unlike Russia, which has a much smaller GDP and is really only a factor in hydrocarbon markets, Beijing is deeply embedded in every element of the global economy.
US, ROK begin ‘largest-ever’ air drills despite national mourning period: NK News reports drills against North Korean threats go ahead after Seoul said it was reviewing postponement over Itaewon tragedy.
The secret history of the Five Eyes by Richard Kerbaj review – Secrets and spies: A murky alliance between intelligence agencies, among them the UK and US, is revealed in a scandalous tale of mistrust and misjudgment, including British teenager Shamima Begum being smuggled into Syria by a Canadian spy. Steve Bloomfield
+ Five Eyes, much like the UK’s permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council and its leadership role in Nato, has allowed Britain to feel, post-Brexit, like it still has a seat at the top table.
+ Until the end of the cold war, the five nations were united in their attempts to defeat the Soviet Union. Part of that involved rooting out Soviet spies or turning Russian diplomats. This is the work that the Five Eyes has been happy to reveal. It has been less keen on shining a light on the darker role it has played.
+ “The alliance remains vital in attempting to foresee and combat future threats.”
UK-Ukraine: Just 41% of Britons said they would back sanctions on Russia if the cost-of-living crisis worsens, down from 73% in March.
Two thoughts on Twitter:
+ @AaronBack: Twitter Twitter is the worst Twitter
+ @andrew_mueller: I'm in for eight bucks a month if everyone who replies has to address me as "Your lordship."
33: The number of VW plants in China.
Germany ain’t decoupling from China anytime soon.
What is MasterClass actually selling? You can learn to serve like Serena Williams or write like Margaret Atwood. But what MasterClass really delivers is something altogether different. Carina Chocano
+ MasterClass launched in 2015 with just three classes: Dustin Hoffman on acting, Serena Williams on tennis, and Patterson on writing. Since then the company has grown exponentially, raising $135 million in venture capital from 2012 to 2018. It now has more than 85 classes across nine categories.
+ MasterClass trailers tend to follow a certain playbook: the introduction of a famous person; a peek behind the curtain; an overview of their setbacks and failures; the promise of what you might learn; the emotional, soaring soundtrack.
+ Founder David Rogier had an idea: What if anybody could learn from the best? “That would be kind of awesome,” he said. Especially if he could offer the class at a relatively low price.
+ As an educational platform, MasterClass is limited by its instructors’ inaccessibility. But as a repository for career advice and discussions about the creative process and how to navigate life as an artist (or athlete, chef, magician, entrepreneur), it’s a gold mine.
+ MasterClass seems ideally suited to frustrated 30-somethings for whom education has not necessarily resulted in upward mobility or even a job.
+ MasterClass launched after the early hype around online education had already fizzled. Filmed university lectures seemed to be even less thrilling than the real thing. MOOCs (massive open online courses) had poor retention rates, and still structurally favored people of means.
领英推荐
Sony-Honda EV venture eyes high end with multicar lineup: COO: Nikkei reports the company readies for 2025 launch of the first model in North America.
Ralph Lauren launches Fortnite fashion line with redesigned Polo logo: Bloomberg reports a limited-edition collection will be available for sale digitally in-game and physically in stores.
+ @mackinacbridge: Nov. 1, 1957, was a pretty big day, marking the official opening of the Mighty Mackinac Bridge 65 years ago.
Law firm’s new work-life balance: turn off your camera for night-time calls: FT reports UK’s Slaughter and May offers new code in talent war with US rivals.
CNN: Five elections in four years: What’s the deal with Israeli politics?
+ @BarakRavid: BREAKING: All three exit polls in the Israeli elections published by the main television channels project that opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing block is going to win a narrow majority of 61-62 seats
Britain’s Tory Party may be on the road to ruin: Broad political consensus is something the Conservatives appear to have lost. Recent trends for other center-right parties across Europe suggest they aren’t alone. Nico FitzRoy
+ In France, for example, the long-standing center-right party Les Républicains has lost around 60 percent of its parliamentary seats since 2012, squeezed by the emergence of President Emmanuel Macron’s economically liberal and pro-EU coalition, as well as the growth of opposition leader Marine Le Pen’s anti-EU, anti-immigration National Rally.
+ Similarly, in Spain, the share of the vote won by the center-right People’s Party fell from 44.6 percent in 2011 to an average of 24.8 percent in the next four general elections, following the emergence of the hardline nationalist Vox Party and — albeit briefly — the economically liberal Citizens Party.
+ In both countries, traditional center-right parties lost votes to new, economically liberal parties and anti-immigration nationalist parties — and at present, similar battles are being waged within the Conservative Party.
+ It remains extremely difficult to form new political parties in the UK’s first-past-the-post system.
+ Tory MP’s are again playing Russian roulette with the party’s future, and the volatility and animosity within the Conservative ranks risk undermining progress at any moment by fratricide.
Biden quietly but clearly prepares a potential reelection bid: WP reports the president and his wife have been meeting with a small group of advisers to pave the way for a 2024 campaign.
Pro-tip: 59 other politicians are also quietly preparing to run in 2024.
Dem Governors are the group to watch.
Too many of them lose next week, and Biden will be preparing quietly not to run for reelection in 2024.
The sex lives of the one percent: In the new season of HBO’s The White Lotus, the rich have wandering eyes and intimate desires—and their wallets can satisfy only so much. Shirley Li
+ Show creator Mike White has said he wanted the new installment to have “an operatic feel” that would match (perhaps stereotypically) its Italian locale, and the story is certainly a lot soapier than before.
+ White seems to take particular pleasure in illustrating the passive aggression flowing between the pair of married couples.
+ That may sound like too sympathetic a conclusion for The White Lotus to draw, but episode by episode, White turns up the heat so that no one emerges unscathed.
Sorry, James Corden. It takes a lot to get banned from a fancy restaurant. What is “86ing,” and how often does it happen? Upscale owners and ma?tre d’s said that banning any customer, let alone a celebrity, is extremely rare. WSJ
+ “86’ing,” in hospitality parlance—is part of the job. Blacklisting a customer altogether, however, is extremely rare.
+ The most common reasons for removing or banning customers are rudeness toward waitstaff, physical grabbing of servers or repeated failure to pay the check, restaurateurs said.
+ The term “86” traces back to at least 1933 in American print records.
+ At the time, it was used as shorthand by employees at soda fountains to refer to sold-out items.
+ Why the term “86?” Linguists believe it may be because “86” rhymes with the word “nix,” meaning to end something.
Taylor Swift first artist to claim entire top 10 on hot songs chart: AFP reports Taylor Swift made music history Monday, becoming the first artist ever to simultaneously nab all ten of the top US song chart's spots after the release of her album "Midnights."
Relentless.
ESPN: Steve Nash out as Brooklyn Nets coach after chaotic tenure
The upside for Nash, he now has more time to enjoy the World Cup, and he doesn't have to deal with Kyrie Irving.
FIFA Uncovered: From power struggles to global politics, an exploration of FIFA reveals the organization's checkered history — and what it takes to host a World Cup. (Trailer) Netflix
The Times: Wales to consider changing name to Cymru after World Cup
Paul Pogba will miss France's World Cup defense as he needs more time to recover from knee surgery, his agent announced on Monday.
In praise of Philadelphia, sudden paradise of sports: An undefeated Eagles team, the Phillies in the World Series, the MLS Union off to the championship—the City of Brotherly Love is chasing a haul of hardware. Jason Gay
Daniel Ricciardo, who lost his McLaren seat as his career fell into the doldrums this year, looks set to join Red Bull or Mercedes as a reserve driver next season when he takes a year out of racing.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Founder + Team Principal @ Caracal
Caracal produces ITK Daily.
Caracal is a geopolitical business intelligence firm specializing in global business issues at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics.
Clients are Chief Communications Officers with global responsibility who rely on Caracal for help navigating today's interconnected business environment with geopolitical intelligence, strategic planning, and economic diplomacy.
To receive Caracal ITK Daily by email, subscribe here.