ITK Daily | May 16

Global Street Smarts.

Happy Tuesday.

Here’s today’s ITK Daily.

To be ITK, know this:?

Turkey is headed for a runoff: President Erdogan led over his opposition rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu in Sunday's election but fell short of an outright majority to extend his 20-year rule of the country.

+ Erdogan won 49.5% of the vote, more than polls predicted.

+ Polarizing presidential campaign has whipsawed Turkish markets.

Erdo?an holds upper hand as Turkish election goes to run-off: FT reports the veteran incumbent is the clear favorite over the opposition challenger in the second round on May 28.

India’s Congress party defeats Narendra Modi’s BJP in Karnataka state elections: Guardian reports the victory deals a blow to the prime minister, who will seek a third term in power at next year’s general election.

Thailand elections: Voters deliver stunning blow to army-backed rule: BBC reports Thai voters have delivered a stunning verdict in favor of an opposition party that is calling for radical reform of the country's institutions. Early results show Move Forward exceeding every prediction to win 151 of the 500 seats in the lower house.

Zelenskyy, Sunak push forward on ‘fighter jet coalition’: British PM says supplying warplanes to Ukraine is ‘not a straightforward thing.’?Politico

Zelensky meets PM as more Ukraine weapons pledged: BBC reports the UK will send hundreds of air defense missiles and armed drones to Ukraine on top of the Storm Shadow cruise missiles announced last week.

The conflict cannot end until Ukraine is part of the West: The question is not whether Ukraine should become a part of the Euro-Atlantic institutions, but when and how.?Ivo Daalder

+ “Ukraine will survive,” a very seasoned spymaster told a group of former senior officials who traveled to Kyiv from the United States and Europe. “The most difficult point will come after the war,” he added.

+ At its core, the war in Ukraine is a fight not over territory but over the country’s future.

+ Russia is determined to control Ukraine’s political destiny — if not its territory.

+ Even if Ukraine succeeds in pushing Russia’s military forces all the way back to its 1991 borders, the conflict won’t truly end.

+ Ukrainian intelligence officials estimate that if the fighting were to stop this year, Russia would already be able to reconstitute sufficient capabilities to restart the war by 2027-2028 — even with economic sanctions remaining in place.

+ In order to truly end the conflict, Russia will have to understand — or be made to understand — that Ukraine’s future will be decided in Kyiv, not Moscow. And Kyiv has made it abundantly clear that it sees that future in the West, as an integral part of the Euro-Atlantic institutions.

+ Ukraine’s security lies with — and in — the West, and the conflict cannot end until Ukraine is part of it. The question is not whether Ukraine should become a part of the West, but how and when.

US-made technology is flowing to Russian airlines, despite sanctions: NYT reports Russian customs data shows that millions of dollars of aircraft parts made by Boeing, Airbus, and others were sent to Russia last year.

G7 leaders to target Russian energy, trade in new sanctions steps: Reuters reports leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) nations plan to tighten sanctions on Russia at their summit in Japan this week, with steps aimed at energy and exports aiding Moscow's war effort, said officials with direct knowledge of the discussions.

TJT: Biden to hold talks with Kishida ahead of Hiroshima G7 summit

China will launch pilot projects in more than 20 cities to create a "new-era" marriage and childbearing culture?to foster a friendly childbearing environment, the latest move by authorities to boost the country's falling birth rate.

Just how good can China get at generative AI??Its models may, in time, rival America’s. But that may not translate into an economic or military edge.?Economist

Xi Jinping’s Taiwan ambitions threaten China’s rise: A war to take the island would wreck the progress Beijing has made over the past 40 years.?Gideon Rachman

+ Xi’s diagnosis of China’s situation is wrong in three crucial respects. It misreads American intentions. It overstates the threat that US policies pose to China’s economy. And it underestimates the risks of confrontation with America.

+ The CEOs of some of the west’s most powerful companies, such as Tim Cook of Apple, have made it very clear that they have no intention of walking away from China.

+ There are more than 120 countries around the world whose largest trading partner is China — far more than America. That gives China considerable influence.

+ Even if Taiwan rapidly capitulated, or the US stood aside, China’s global image would be transformed forever. Every western company or country that is currently sitting on the fence over China would have to join in a rigorous sanctions regime. The globalised economy would split into pieces — with huge costs for all concerned.

+ Despite the risks involved, Xi may believe that a successful conquest of Taiwan would secure his place in the history books as the leader who completed the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese people.”

+?Xi still has that economic path to national greatness open. He should take it.

In Vienna, the US-China relationship shows signs of hope?David Ignatius

+ After two days of intense meetings Wednesday and Thursday between national security adviser Jake Sullivan and top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi, the two nations used identical language to describe the meetings: candid, substantive, constructive. For diplomats, that amounts to a rave review.

+ Sullivan and Wang are both confident enough to talk off script. Over nearly a dozen hours of discussion, they threw schedules aside.

+ They have the confidence of their bosses, Presidents Biden and Xi Jinping, to engage in detailed discussion about sensitive issues.

+ They appear to have found a language for superpower discussion, like what once existed between the United States and both Russia and China but has been lost.

+ Based on Chinese and American accounts, what happened last week in Vienna was the beginning of a process of regular, direct engagement that will benefit both sides.

Why some countries find it hard to move away from fossil fuels:?Trinidad and Tobago is the No. 2 exporter of liquefied natural gas in the Americas. Its output has been falling, but it remains committed to fossil fuels.?NYT

IYKYK: “Organize a little coup down in old Peru? Put me in a van to Tajikistan? Couldn’t I just be our fun guy in Uruguay?”

Budget talks: President Joe Biden, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and other congressional leaders are planning a meeting today for talks on spending as a potential US debt default looms.?

Biden team aims to compete in North Carolina, test ground in Florida: The strategy could provide alternate paths to victory if the president falters in other battleground states.?WP

+ Both Florida and North Carolina require expensive advertising, and neither was considered a top-tier landscape for the party during the 2022 elections, when Republicans comfortably won statewide contests.?

+ Florida, in particular, has been the most expensive state for presidential campaigns in recent election cycles, given its size and multiple media markets.

If Biden bows out, how about Michelle Obama??Hillary Clinton’s political machine is formidable, but another first lady would be the strongest candidate.?Douglas Schoen + Andrew Stein

DeSantis might have met his match in Disney’s Iger as both sides dig in: ‘The mouse brought in the big guns,’ a former Democratic state senator said.?WP

+ Chapek and Iger, along with Disney, declined to comment for this story.

The greatest wealth transfer in history is here, with familiar (rich) winners: In an era of surging home and stock values, US family wealth has soared. The trillions of dollars going to heirs will largely reinforce inequality.?NYT

+ Of the 73 million baby boomers, the youngest are turning 60. The oldest boomers are nearing 80.

+ In 1989, total family wealth in the United States was about $38 trillion, adjusted for inflation. By 2022, that wealth had more than tripled, reaching $140 trillion.

+?Of the $84 trillion projected to be passed down from older Americans to millennial and Gen X heirs through 2045, $16 trillion will be transferred within the next decade.

+ The average price of a US house has risen about 500 percent since 1983.

+ High-net-worth and ultrahigh-net-worth individuals — those with at least $5 million and $20 million in cash or easily cashable assets — make up only 1.5 percent of all households.

US cities must beware the ‘donut effect’: Many of America’s urban centers are struggling to lure workers back post-pandemic, but the suburbs are thriving.?Rana Foroohar

+ While many commercial business districts are struggling, their urban outer rings are often thriving. Call it “the donut effect.”

+ The original “donut” city — Detroit.

+ One variable that seems to matter is ease of transit.?

+ This may be one reason why downtown London and Paris seem vibrant compared to many US cities.

+ Office work may never be what it was, but movie theatres and Broadway shows are back, hotels are booming and service sector wages are substantially above the pre-COVID level, according to data from Apollo. People still want to live in and visit big cities — they just want to do it in new ways.

Help! My political beliefs were altered by a chatbot!?AI assistants may be able to change our views without our realizing it. Says one expert: ‘What’s interesting here is the subtlety.’?Christopher Mims

+ “latent persuasion”

+ These studies raise an alarming prospect: As AI makes us more productive, it may also alter our opinions in subtle and unanticipated ways. This influence may be more akin to the way humans sway one another through collaboration and social norms, than to the kind of mass-media and social media influence we’re familiar with.

You’re probably underestimating AI chatbots: Just as the first iPhone reviews mostly missed the device’s huge potential, it’s folly to draw conclusions from today’s unrefined technology.?Steven Levy

+ "I guarantee you that 10 years from now tasking a large language model with business communications is going to be nothing like using today’s beta versions. The same goes for search, writing a college essay, or running a political ad campaign."

OpenAI’s Sam Altman nears $100mn funding for Worldcoin crypto project: Start-up plans to create global identification system through iris scans to enable access to free global currency.?FT

+ OpenAI boss Sam Altman is close to securing about $100mn in funding for his plan to use iris-scanning technology to create a secure global cryptocurrency called Worldcoin, in what would be a rare bright spot for a sector which has endured a bleak year.

+ It has grand ambitions, with plans to use eyeball-scanning technology to create a global identification system that could be used to gain free access to its own global currency, Worldcoin.

+ Worldcoin executives said their approach tackles two problems raised by the increasing sophistication of artificial intelligence: distinguishing between humans and bots, and providing a form of universal basic income that might offset job losses caused by AI.

+ Having been operating in beta, the company is now gearing up to roll out its blockchain protocol and begin recording transactions in the next six weeks.

Winners and losers in the artificial intelligence arms race: The key question on generative AI is which countries will benefit and which will not.?Barry Eichengreen

+ The first rule of forecasting, the financial journalist Jane Bryant Quinn once observed, is this: Give them a forecast or give them a date; just never give them both.

+ So, here’s a not very bold forecast: Generative artificial-intelligence models like ChatGPT will revolutionize the economy. We just can’t say when.

+ More than anything, however, economic development depends on human development — that is, on the accumulation of human capital.

+ Throughout history, technological change has created both winners and losers. There is no reason why AI, like previous technologies, shouldn’t produce more of the former than the latter.

Microsoft’s $75 billion Activision deal cleared by EU: WSJ reports the decision comes weeks after the UK regulator rejected the agreement, saying it would crimp competition in the country’s gaming market.

US universities are building a new semiconductor workforce: The CHIPS Act could require 50,000 new engineers.?IEEE Spectrum?

+ Where will the industry find the qualified workforce needed to run these plants and design the chips they’ll make??

+ The United States today manufactures just 12 percent of the world’s chips, down from 37 percent in 1990, according to a September 2020 report by the Semiconductor Industry Association.

+ For the CHIPS Act to succeed, each fab will need hundreds of skilled engineers and technicians of all stripes, with training ranging from two-year associate degrees to PhDs.

+ Intel wants to create a “Silicon Heartland” in Ohio.

+ Ohio State University will lead a new interdisciplinary Center for Advanced Semiconductor Fabrication Research and Education that will span 10 in-state colleges and universities.

+ Intel is expanding its fabs in Arizona, New Mexico, and Oregon. Of the 7,000 jobs created as a result, about 40 percent will be for people with two-year degrees, and 20 percent each for those with bachelor’s degrees, master’s degrees, and PhDs.

Reuters: US consumers keep vehicles for a record 12.5 years on average -S&P

EV hesitation?

Ford says it will reduce costs to boost China business: Reuters reports Ford said on Monday it was working to reduce costs in China as it strives to recover from a long sales slump in the world's largest auto market.

The aviation industry wants to be net zero—but not soon: The technology and economics of planemaking make decarbonization incredibly hard.?Economist

+ Airliners account for more than 2% of the annual global emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, many times commercial aviation’s contribution to world GDP.

Biden's power plant proposal poses huge test for carbon capture: Reuters reports the Biden administration's plan to decarbonize the US power sector envisions the first-ever large-scale use of carbon capture and green hydrogen over the next decade - raising questions about whether the climate-fighting technologies can rise to the challenge.

Newmont?will pay $19.2 billion to buy Australian rival Newcrest Mining.

The future of IKEA’s blue box stores??Midnight raves and colossal art: We talk to Ingka Group’s creative director Marcus Engman about Ikea’s bold retail plans.?FC

+ IKEA has big plans for physical retail across the US, as it’s pledged $2.2 billion in investments to expand its big blue box stores and open hundreds of smaller pickup storefronts in cities across the country—as it aims to compete more directly with Walmart, Amazon, and Target.

+ "If you get people out buying in the countryside, or in suburbs, it’s about people coming there with a purchase intent from the beginning."

+ "It’s all about “ease” and “fun”—in that order. First, you have to make it easy for people, and then you could make it fun."

+ " You don’t want to create “new” all the time because that’s not really sustainable. So how do you do that in a sustainable way?"

Vice?filed for bankruptcy protection, punctuating a rapid decline for the media upstart that once boasted a $5.7 billion valuation.?

How Bernbach re-invented advertising?Dave Trott

+ One of Bernbach’s rules: Turn a problem into an opportunity.

BBC: The Weeknd: Pop star changes his name to Abel Tesfaye

BBC: 'Godfather of Poker' Doyle Brunson dies aged 89

TJT: Japanese skateboarders shine as X Games return to Japan

+ Tony Hawk: “I think Japanese skaters are among the best. Some of them are the most progressive, the most consistent, the most exciting, and I feel like Japanese skateboarding, it’s come of age. They’re the ones to beat now.”

Austin Reaves dodged the NBA Draft—and became the Lakers’ secret weapon: Reaves and his agents schemed for him to go unselected two years ago, hoping Los Angeles would pick him up. Now Reaves is saving the Lakers’ season.?WSJ

Dan Snyder enters agreement for $6 billion sale of Washington Commanders to Josh Harris: WSJ reports the deal would end Snyder’s controversial ownership of the team, which he acquired for $800 million in 1999.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc?

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal

Caracal produces ITK Daily.

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