ITK Daily | March 9

Happy Thursday.

Here’s today’s ITK Daily.

To be ITK, know this:?

CNN: Zelensky invites House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to visit Ukraine

Russia eyes pressure tactics to lure fleeing tech workers home?WP

+ While the Kremlin seemed happy to see dissident artists, activists and journalists flee the country, the exodus of IT workers has become a major headache for top managers and officials as they struggle to fill key positions, keep the economy afloat, and prevent security breaches at companies that keep the country functioning despite the bite of Western sanctions.

+ Many did not tell their employer that they were leaving, aiming instead to continue the pandemic-era work-from-home trend but from several time zones away.

+ Thousands of Yandex employees have left the country over the course of several emigration waves, and are working in new offices opened in Russian diaspora hubs: Serbia, Armenia, and, most recently, Turkey.

+ Once Russia’s biggest internet success story, Yandex is now splitting its business into Russian and international entities to spare some departments from the fallout.

+ Russia considers the United States, Canada, Britain and the entire European Union, among others, to be “unfriendly” countries.

+ A software engineer, who quit his job in Moscow and moved to the United Arab Emirates, said there was one surefire approach the Russian government could adopt: “The only thing they can do to bring us back is to stop the war.”

The 'no-limits friendship' between Putin and Xi has reached its limits. It is not panning out well for Russia: China has adopted an ambiguous stance in terms of the war in Ukraine, but any escalation that would undoubtedly ensue from Beijing deciding to help Moscow militarily in the war in Ukraine is not in its interest.?Sylvie Kauffmann

+ Obviously, there is no question of China leaving its Russian "strategic partner" high and dry.

+ Having met no less than 39 times, what Xi and Putin do have in common is their shared hatred for what the United States represents, a very long border between the two countries and economic interests – oil and gas versus manufactured goods and technology.

+ Between them, they form an effective duo to defeat Western efforts, as was evident in the divisions at the G20 summit in New Delhi on March 2.

+ It does not matter that the 12-point "peace plan" put forward by China for the Ukrainian conflict is not really a plan. What it does do is establish Beijing on the world stage as a potential peacemaker.?

Georgia protests: Thousands clash over ‘foreign agents’ bill: The Times reports tear gas and water cannon were used on demonstrators outside parliament in Tbilisi.

The explosive roots of the Georgia protests: NYT reports always leery of Russian influence, Georgians see a new “foreign agents” law as a Kremlin-inspired tool to undermine their faltering democracy.

Tens of thousands oppose 'foreign agent' bill in Georgia in second day of protests: Le Monde reports concern is growing that the mountainous Caucasus republic, which aspires to join the European Union and NATO, is taking an authoritarian turn.

Thousands of Georgians are protesting against a “foreign-agent” law: The proposed legislation is straight from the Russian and Hungarian playbooks.?Economist

Europe is finally starting to face its threats. It should do more.?WP - Editorial

+ The solution is not as simple as spending more on defense. Europe should first devise a coherent foreign policy, the bedrock of any serious future approach to autonomous European defense.

Emmanuel Macron’s vision of a more muscular Europe is coming true: But his allies disagree on its strategies and goals.?Economist

Striking French workers dispute that they want a right to ‘laziness’?WP

+ Measured by output per hour, French workers were more productive than their German counterparts — who are often perceived to be obsessed with efficiency — and only slightly less productive than Americans in 2019, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

+ France also has some of the highest levels of burnout and on-the-job accidents among European workers, which researchers have attributed to a sometimes toxic and hierarchical work culture that limits employees’ growth and engagement.?

+ After accounting for differences in purchasing power, Americans earn about 17 percent more than French workers, OECD data shows.

French pension reform: Senate votes to raise retirement age from 62 to 64: Le Monde reports the article was approved on Thursday, right after midnight, by 201 votes for and 115 against.

Thatcher, Sunak and the politics of the supermarket: The story of British politics told through the aisles.?Economist

A very Italian scandal: Italians are responsible for both partly causing — and perhaps also helping solve — the EU’s biggest corruption scandal in years.?Politico

+ Qatargate, in other words, has a distinctly Italian flavor. And, ironically, Italians are responsible for both partly causing — and perhaps also rooting out — any rot infiltrating Parliament.

+ The fact that mafia-fighting laws are being deployed against government corruption is no surprise. Investigators often stress that eradicating the mafia and uncovering corruption go hand in hand. The former, they stress, cannot prosper without the latter.?

Von der Leyen, Trudeau tout ‘green alliance’ before Biden visits: Politico reports European Commission president says Europe is eager to ‘de-risk’ dependency on China.?

US, EU to start trade negotiations on minerals: WSJ reports President Biden and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are set to discuss a plan to reduce their dependence on China.

Report: Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community?- click?here .

US spy agencies warn of China’s efforts to expand its power: China sees a partnership with Russia as a way to challenge, and potentially weaken, the United States, a new threat assessment said.?NYT

Americans continue to view China as the US's greatest enemy?Gallup

US, China plunge further into a spiral of hostility: After tiptoeing toward a rapprochement, any fence-mending now has been postponed.?WSJ

AFP: US ready to let Taiwan leader visit to see top Republican

China is right about US containment: But encircling Beijing is not a viable long-term strategy.?Edward Luce

+ Here is a thought experiment. If Taiwan did not exist, would the US and China still be at loggerheads? My hunch is yes. Antagonism between top dogs and rising powers is part of the human story.

+ China is the middle kingdom wanting redress for the age of western humiliation; America is the dangerous nation seeking monsters to destroy. Both are playing to type.

+ The likeliest alternative to today’s US-China stand-off is not a kumbaya meeting-of-minds, but war.

+ A big difference between today’s cold war and the original one is that China is not exporting revolution. From Cuba to Angola and Korea to Ethiopia, the Soviet Union underwrote leftwing insurgencies worldwide.

+ When Xi refers to “encirclement”, he is thinking about America’s deepening ties to China’s neighbours. Again, Xi mostly has himself to blame.

+ There is no endgame to today’s cold war. Unlike the USSR, which was an empire in disguise, China inhabits historic boundaries and is never likely to dissolve. The US needs a strategy to cope with a China that will always be there.

+ Here is another way to look at it. The US still holds more of the cards. It has plenty of allies, a global system that it designed, better technology and younger demographics. China’s growth is slowing and its society is ageing faster. The case for US resolve and patience is stronger today than it was when Kennan was around. Self-confident powers should not be afraid to talk.

Netherlands to restrict chip exports after US pressure over China threat: FT reports the move affects ‘most advanced’ semiconductor tech after concerns on use in weaponry.

In his parting words, Li Keqiang warns that 'heaven is watching': Veiled dig comes as Xi neuters State Council to bolster party.?Nikkei

+ "Heaven is looking at what humans are doing. The firmament has eyes."

+ After delivering his farewell speech to the parliament on Sunday, Li shook hands with Xi in a rare scene. It came three days after his speech to the State Council officials. One can but speculate as to what both men were thinking after a challenging decade of shared experiences and differing opinions in the battle gardens of Zhongnanhai.

Factions.

Federalist 10.

China’s new way to control its biggest companies: Golden shares: The state takes company stakes that are often small but give it a board seat and power to ensure that corporate behavior hews to the party agenda.?WSJ

+ “The blurring of the line is pushing policy makers in the U.S. and other countries to take a broadly restrictive position on Chinese companies,” said Scott Kennedy, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank focused on international relations. “The burden of proof is on the private companies to show they’re not agents of the state.”

+?Xi is settling into an approach that lies between active encouragement of enterprise and a public battle against what he sees as capitalist excesses—a middle course centered on the government having a long-lasting grip on the private sector.

+ Golden shares have become a useful tool to keep companies like these in line with party objectives without the need for the state being a major stakeholder.

+ Golden shares can also be a way for Beijing to try to protect companies from the fallout of deteriorating US-China relations

How are China's neighbors viewing Beijing's military plans??A number of countries, from Japan and South Korea to the Philippines, have been increasingly wary of Beijing's growing assertiveness and influence in the region.?DW

+ Tzu-Yun Su, an analyst at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taiwan, said that China's defense spending plans reflect Beijing's intention to transform itself from being a land power to a naval power.

Biden to reveal nuke submarine plans Monday alongside UK and Australian leaders: Politico reports the event in San Diego, which could include a walk atop a submarine, will feature details on how Australia aims to acquire nuclear-powered submarines.

Bloomberg: Australia’s nuclear subs will use a UK design to counter China

+ US parts and upgrades will be provided for the subs as well.

+ In the meantime, the US may base some subs in Australia.

Australia to buy US nuclear-powered submarines in naval expansion: WSJ reports planned purchase expected to be announced Monday at meeting of President Biden and the leaders of Australia and Britain.

Reuters: Australia expected to buy up to 5 Virginia class submarines as part of AUKUS -sources

Britain to play bigger role in AUKUS submarine deal than envisaged: FT reports a UK minister says negotiations have ‘gone our way’ ahead of the unveiling of new designs.

AFP: Medecins Sans Frontieres shuts Haiti hospital over gang violence

The State: Haley or Scott? South Carolina GOP braces for ‘24 primary with two hometown candidates

CNBC: Miami’s popular Republican Mayor Suarez weighs GOP challenge to Trump for White House in 2024

The Hill: No Labels Party qualifies for Arizona ballot in 2024

ABC News: Larry Hogan won't close the door on third-party presidential bid in 2024

Bloomberg: Ex-LA Mayor Garcetti’s nomination as India ambassador advances

IBM, Pirelli Tire among companies signing political money principles: Actions range from full disclosure to bans on corporate money in politics.?Roll Call

VW puts European battery plant on hold as it seeks €10bn from US: FT reports Europe’s largest carmaker is ‘waiting’ for an EU response to Biden administration’s subsidies.

Bloomberg: Intel wants $5 billion more from Germany for a chip plant

+ Chips designer had already reached a deal for $7 billion in aid.

+ Plant construction was postponed due to economic headwinds.

The future of human agency: Experts are split about how much control people will retain over essential decision-making as digital systems and AI spread. They agree that powerful corporate and government authorities will expand the role of AI in people’s daily lives in useful ways. But many worry these systems will diminish individuals’ ability to control their choices.?Pew

+ By 2035, will smart machines, bots and systems powered by artificial intelligence be designed to allow humans to easily be in control of most tech-aided decision-making that is relevant to their lives?

- 56% of these experts agreed with the statement that by 2035 smart machines, bots and systems will not be designed to allow humans to easily be in control of most tech-aided decision-making.

- 44% said they agreed with the statement that by 2035 smart machines, bots and systems will be designed to allow humans to easily be in control of most tech-aided decision-making.

+?“There are two obstacles to human agency triumphing: enterprise and government. Control over the technologies will be more and more a combination of cooperation and struggle between those two forces, with citizens left very little chance to influence choices. … The trends indicate that the future design of decision-making tech will most likely not be determined by the application of science and well-reasoned, well-intended debate. Instead, the future is to be determined by the agendas of commercial interests and governments, to our chagrin.”

+ “How automation takes over can be subtle. Compare searching with Google to searching CD-ROM databases in the 1990s. Yes, humans can override search defaults, but all evidence shows they don’t and for the most part they won’t.

+ “At present, many people on Earth have already effectively outsourced – knowingly or unknowingly – their tech-aided decisions to these systems."

+ “It’s not so much a question of ‘will we assign our agency to these machines, systems and bots?’ but ‘what will we’ assign to them? If, philosophically, the best decisions are those based on intelligence and humanity, what happens when humanity takes a back seat to intelligence? What happens when agency gives way to comfort?

Fortune: Iconic leftist intellectual Noam Chomsky says chatbots are ‘marvels of machine learning’ but also the banality of evil, rebooted

The false promise of ChatGPT?Noam Chomsky

+ Today our supposedly revolutionary advancements in artificial intelligence are indeed cause for both concern and optimism.?

+ Optimism because intelligence is the means by which we solve problems.?

+ Concern because we fear that the most popular and fashionable strain of AI — machine learning — will degrade our science and debase our ethics by incorporating into our technology a fundamentally flawed conception of language and knowledge.

+ OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Bard and Microsoft’s Sydney are marvels of machine learning. Roughly speaking, they take huge amounts of data, search for patterns in it and become increasingly proficient at generating statistically probable outputs — such as seemingly humanlike language and thought.

+ The human mind is not, like ChatGPT and its ilk, a lumbering statistical engine for pattern matching, gorging on hundreds of terabytes of data and extrapolating the most likely conversational response or most probable answer to a scientific question.

+ On the contrary, the human mind is a surprisingly efficient and even elegant system that operates with small amounts of information; it seeks not to infer brute correlations among data points but to create explanations.

+ The crux of machine learning is description and prediction; it does not posit any causal mechanisms or physical laws.?

+ Human-style thought is based on possible explanations and error correction, a process that gradually limits what possibilities can be rationally considered.

+ ChatGPT and similar programs are, by design, unlimited in what they can “learn” (which is to say, memorize).

+ For this reason, the predictions of machine learning systems will always be superficial and dubious.

+ True intelligence is also capable of moral thinking.

+ In short, ChatGPT and its brethren are constitutionally unable to balance creativity with constraint.

+ They either overgenerate (producing both truths and falsehoods, endorsing ethical and unethical decisions alike) or undergenerate (exhibiting noncommitment to any decisions and indifference to consequences).?

The real-life consequences of Silicon Valley’s AI obsession: Sam Bankman-Fried made effective altruism a punchline, but its philosophy of maximum do-gooding masks a thriving culture of predatory behavior.?Bloomberg

+ In Silicon Valley, the overlap between rationalists, EAs, and AI safety researchers forms a deeply influential subculture.

+ Effective altruism swung toward AI safety.?

+ Yudkowsky now views OpenAI’s commercial efforts as “nearly the worst possible” path, one that will hasten our doom.

+ “The problem is that demon summoning is easy, and angel summoning is much harder.”

+ As AI becomes more powerful, the stakes will only feel higher to those obsessed with their self-assigned quest to keep it under rein. The collateral damage that’s already occurred won’t matter. They’ll be thinking only of their own kind of paper clip: saving the world.

How Google became cautious of AI and gave Microsoft an opening: Researchers developed a powerful chatbot years before rival ChatGPT went viral. After management stalled its release, they quit.?WSJ

+ “Google is struggling to find a balance between how much risk to take versus maintaining thought leadership in the world,” said Gaurav Nemade, a former Google product manager who worked on the company’s chatbot until 2020.

The time to negotiate rules for AI in nuclear weapons is now: Lessons from the aftermath of the first nuclear strikes demonstrate it can take decades to establish peaceful stability.?Anja Manuel

WeChat steps up e-commerce push on short video platform: Caixin reports Tencent’s super app sees new profits in Channels’ 813 million users as it races against a similar drive by ByteDance’s Douyin.

TikTok introduces European data measures amid security concerns: FT reports Chinese-owned social media app is facing pressure from governments worldwide.

Bloomberg: Work phones make a comeback as offices ban WhatsApp, TikTok

+ Companies worried about security hand staffers second phones.

+ Mobile carriers ride a sales surge in company-issued devices.

Why Patagonia just bought a cracker company: The apparel company bought cracker company Moonshot, which uses regenerative agriculture practices, in an attempt to further grow its new food division.?FC

+ The startup’s crackers will join 28 other products—like smoked mackerel, dried mango, and kelp salsa—that Patagonia Provisions now sells itself and in stores like Whole Foods.?

It turns out money does buy happiness, at least up to $500,000: Forget what you heard about there being no benefit once income reaches $75,000.?Bloomberg

+ “For very poor people, money clearly helps a lot,” Killingsworth told New Scientist. “But if you have a decent income and you’re still miserable, the source of your misery probably isn’t something money can fix.”

The rise of the sped-up remix: Music’s hottest new trend is the Chipmunk effect. How did we get here??Reanna Cruz

How Afrobeats took over the world — and is still evolving: Its biggest stars are filling stadiums and winning Grammys while forging new collaborations across Africa and the world.?FT

+ Afrobeats, its younger cousin, acknowledges the past via samples of classics and familiar African drum patterns, reborn in hybrid electronic form, mixing them with elements of Afro-pop, Jamaican Dancehall and Afroswing.

+ In July, Afrobeats superstar Wizkid will play London’s 62,000-seat Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

+ While the movement was incubated in Ghana and Nigeria, London proved to be a key finishing school for many of the scene’s artists, including the Nigerian trio of Wizkid, Davido and Burna Boy.

+ Technology and streaming platforms have made it easier for African stars to be discovered by global audiences. Since its launch in Nigeria in 2015, Boomplay Music has become Africa’s largest music streaming and download service with 75mn monthly active users and an impressive catalogue.

Whitney Museum Director Adam Weinberg will step down this year: He’ll be replaced by the museum’s current senior deputy director, Scott Rothkopf.?Bloomberg

CBS Sports?is launching "Golazo Network," a FAST channel dedicated to soccer. It will debut on April 11.

Will Lionel Messi come to MLS? In Miami, everyone has an opinion?The Athletic

Shohei Ohtani, other Asian stars chase World Baseball Classic glory: What to watch as the World Cup-style tournament begins in Taiwan, Japan, US.?Nikkei

+ The Dominican Republic, the US, and Japan are seen as the favorites this time.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc?

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal

Caracal produces ITK Daily.

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