ITK Daily | March 7

Happy Tuesday.

Here’s today’s ITK Daily.

To be ITK, know this:?

High Seas Treaty: Historic deal to protect international waters finally reached at UN: After almost 20 years of talks, United Nations member states agree on a legal framework for parts of the ocean outside national boundaries.?Guardian

High Seas Treaty secured after marathon UN talks: Politico reports: ‘This is a massive success for multilateralism,’ UN General Assembly President Csaba K?r?si says.?

Europe to target ‘big fish’ companies in new foreign-subsidy rules: US Chamber of Commerce has warned of a significant compliance burden for some American companies.?WSJ

America is toppling the EU from its regulatory throne: Corporate rules are more likely to be handed down by Washington than Brussels these days.?Rana Foroohar

+ American regulators have become more ambitious because they believe the stakes are so high.

+ They view their work not in technocratic but existential terms; a battle against the risk of corporate oligopoly which threatens liberal democracy.

+ The new and more robust American regulatory response harks back to an era when power mattered more than price and politicians weren’t afraid to take on big business.

Von der Leyen heads to Canada and United States: DW reports European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is visiting Canada and the United States, eyeing new supplies of critical raw materials and assurances on long-term backing for Ukraine.?

The US is not yet ready for the era of ‘great power’ conflict: Since 2018, the military has shifted to focus on China and Russia after decades fighting insurgencies, but it still faces challenges to produce weapons and come up with new ways of waging war.?WSJ

Russia’s population nightmare is going to get even worse: War in Ukraine has aggravated a crisis that long predates the conflict.?Economist

The Ukrainian economy just keeps on going: Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted to plunge Ukraine into darkness and cold this winter. But the country's economy continues to survive, and supermarket shelves are full. How has Ukraine managed to do it??Der Spiegel

Good knight? Boris Johnson has reportedly put his father, Stanley, forward for a knighthood.

Paris plans green makeover for ‘hated’ Champs élysées: The first stage of the revamp is due to be finished by next year’s Olympics.?The Times

AFP: Notre Dame Cathedral to welcome back visitors in December 2024

Reuters: China leans on coal amid energy security push

Bloomberg: China gives new backing to coal even as clean energy accelerates

+ Cleaner, efficient use of the fuel among the 2023 priorities.

+ Beijing targeting a 2% reduction in energy intensity in 2023.

China has a fateful choice to make on Ukraine: A decision to supply Russia with weapons would bring Beijing’s rivalry with Washington to boiling point.?Gideon Rachman

+ A choice to supply Russia with weapons would suggest that China believes that intensified rivalry with the US is unavoidable — and perhaps desirable.

+ By contrast, a decision not to give Russia weapons would indicate that China still believes that tensions with the US are manageable and that globalisation can be saved.

+ “If Beijing takes Moscow’s side in the conflict, then we are already in the dawn of the third world war.” -- Zhou Bo, a former colonel in the People’s Liberation Army

+ Putin and Xi laid out a common understanding of the world. They both see the US as the central threat to their countries’ ambitions and political regimes. Fighting back against American power is the common task that unites them.

+ The second reason why China might risk a global conflict is bleaker. Nationalists in Beijing may believe that outright confrontation with the US has already begun.?

+ Indirect Chinese military support for Russia could ultimately be a circuitous route to the same destination: direct confrontation with America.

China’s Xi Jinping takes rare direct aim at US in speech: Leader blames Washington-led ‘containment, encirclement and suppression’ for challenges at home.?WSJ

+ “Western countries—led by the U.S.—have implemented all-round containment, encirclement and suppression against us, bringing unprecedentedly severe challenges to our country’s development,” Xi was quoted by state media as saying on Monday.?

+ The English-language version of Xi’s speech reported by Xinhua didn’t refer to containment or the US. Instead, it quoted him telling fellow officials to “have the courage to fight as the country faces profound and complex changes in both the domestic and international landscape.”

Speaker Kevin McCarthy to meet Taiwan’s president in US to avoid China’s ire: FT reports the two sides agree on California venue after Taipei raises concerns.

Democrats and Republicans agree on China. That’s a problem.?Max Boot

Historical disputes kept them at odds. Can Seoul and Tokyo make amends??Icy relations between the two have long been a headache for Washington. South Korea made a significant step in improving ties this week, perhaps indicating progress to come.?NYT

South Korea, Japan put security over history with wartime labor proposal: Nikkei reports the neighbors pushed toward compromise by North Korean threat, US-China tension.

India, wary of China, expands trade ties with the West: The nation is gradually pivoting from its nonaligned, protectionist history, though obstacles remain.?Greg Ip

+ Beneath its professed neutrality, though, India has begun pivoting westward. This has less to do with Russia, where India has longstanding ties, than with China, which both India and the West increasingly see as a principal adversary.

+ In other words, India wants more protection from China, and freer trade with everyone else.?

+ India is using its presidency of the G20 to promote itself as a gigantic potential market and a trusted partner that, unlike China, is a democracy and doesn’t compel foreign companies to share their technology or ownership with local companies.

+ The US-India relationship will be “a very important geopolitical anchor on which peace and growth both will rest.”

IND - AUS: Australian PM Anthony Albanese will visit India from March 8-11.

Indonesia eyes extending export bans to bauxite, copper, and beyond: Nikkei reports Jokowi aims to develop downstream industries at home but risks trade frictions.

Israel is courting disaster?Michael R. Bloomberg

In Ethiopia's Tigray region, the wounds of war remain raw: Four months after the peace agreement was signed in Pretoria, Tigrayans bear witness to the large-scale violence they suffered at the hands of Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Amhara forces.?Le Monde

France must find a way to bounce back in Africa: During his recent Africa trip, Emmanuel Macron reaffirmed his wish to engage in a new relationship with the continent to counter the feeling that France is losing momentum.?Le Monde - Editorial

+ France is not going to desert Africa at a time when the great Cold War powers (Russia, the United States), as well as powerful forces including China, India, the Emirates and Turkey, are more active than ever on this continent that is crucial for the future of the world.?

+ It will take time and much more than speeches and small steps to convince people of the reality of the updated new approach presented by the President of the Republic.?

+ While economic, political and influence competition is exacerbating in Africa, Paris cannot remain on the sidelines. But, at this pivotal moment, it has yet to fully concretize this touted new beginning, the rebound of French policy in Africa.

Trudeau asks national security committee to launch new interference probe: National Post reports the sources also say he will formally announce public consultations to create a registry for foreign agents similar to one that exists in Australia.

Did China influence the Canadian elections for Trudeau??Jane Stannus

+ Erin O’Toole, Conservative leader at the time of the 2021 election, said his party lost eight to nine seats because of disinformation from China.?

+ These disinformation campaigns – according to the CSIS leaks – were spread by leveraging Chinese-Canadian organisations, Chinese-language media outlets and Chinese social media network WeChat.

Climate change threatens Canadian security, prosperity, warns stark spy agency brief: Changes could create new fights over the Arctic, freshwater, among others.?CBC

+ The brief says the Arctic's receding ice coverage will allow for routine navigation of the Northwest Passage and extraction of oil and mineral deposits in the region might become more economically viable.

+ "Great power competition for Arctic access, influence and control will likely intensify. There will be an escalating risk from significant Russian military activity and a growing China presence in this vital region."

+ "Canada will likely be seen as a desirable place for future immigration flows, not only due to its stable economy and fundamental rights and freedoms, but also its significant freshwater and agricultural endowments and vast territory that offer options for mass relocation."

+ "Put simply, climate change compounds all other known human security issues and serves as an accelerant towards negative security outcomes. No country will be immune from climate change or associated risks."

The narco threat to Mexican democracy: AMLO’s attack on the country’s electoral authority is a political gift to the cartels.?Mary Anastasia O’Grady

Bloomberg: US will ask Mexico for formal talks, escalating fight over GMO corn

+ GMO corn has become a main trade irritant between the nations.

+ Formal consultations request could come as soon as Monday.

Maimi Herald: DeSantis, GOP lawmakers ready for culture wars 2.0 as Florida legislature convenes

NYT: In Florida legislative session, a chance for DeSantis to check off his wish list

AP: Thousands of pro-Trump bots are attacking DeSantis, Haley

A life in Congress: Lauren Underwood learns what it costs: As a single Black woman in the House, the 36-year-old Illinois Democrat tries to balance who she is versus what she does.?WP

Wednesday: The Senate Intelligence Committee will have a hearing on worldwide threats with DNI Avril Haines, CIA Director William Burns, FBI Director Christopher Wray, and other intelligence officials.

Thursday: Norfolk Southern CEO Alan Shaw testifies at a Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing on the East Palestine, Ohio, rail disaster.

Saturday: The annual Gridiron Club dinner.

Texts from crypto giant Binance reveal plan to elude US authorities: The exchange was intertwined with an American firm portrayed as independent. Now, regulators are circling.?WSJ

Toblerone is removing the Matterhorn from its packaging: WSJ reports Mondelez is making the change to comply with Swiss law as it moves some production outside of Switzerland.

WP: Toblerone chocolate is no longer ‘Swiss’ enough for Alps logo

TikTok rolls put ‘Project Clover’ to assure Europeans on data: WSJ reports the video-sharing app launches effort in the UK amid a wave of other governments restricting its use.

+ Montreal’s McGill and Concordia universities have banned TikTok from university mobile devices.

White House said to consider pushing Congress on dealing with TikTok: NYT reports in a strategy shift, the Biden administration is increasingly pointing to Congress to give it more legal power to deal with TikTok and other technology that could expose Americans’ sensitive data to China.

A TikTok ban would make for an incredibly strange day on the internet?John Herrman

+ This sudden lurch toward a full ban of the platform follows years of debate over how to handle the rise of the wildly popular Chinese-owned platform that has, since its sudden breakout in 2018, been beating its American rivals at their own game.?

+ It would be unprecedented.?

+ It could also throw the tech industry into chaos.

+ A full ban faces some political obstacles.?

+ Banning TikTok would function as piecemeal industrial policy.

Amazon’s big dreams for Alexa fall short: FT reports teams working on the e-commerce giant’s voice assistant have been hit hard by the largest cuts in the company’s history.

At Elon Musk’s ‘brittle’ Twitter, tweaks trigger massive outages: WP reports: “Every mistake in code and operations is now deadly,” a former engineer said last year. That dire prediction appears to be coming true.

Marc Benioff regrets not buying Twitter: Kara Swisher grills the Salesforce CEO about activist investors, Elon Musk, drunk tweeting, and a lot more.?Intelligencer

LAT: From Chris Rock to the SAG Awards. Why Netflix is dabbling in livestreaming

Paramount explores selling majority stake in BET: Multihyphenate Tyler Perry has expressed an interest in buying the stake, though discussions are still in the early stages, a source tells THR.

'It's called capitalism': Ticketmaster's ex-CEO defends the company's business model: Fred Rosen blames artists, promoters — and music piracy — for high prices.?CBC

+ People frustrated with Ticketmaster are just lying in the bed they made themselves, insists the embattled company's former CEO.

+ Rosen says Ticketmaster is just an easy target.

+ Is Ticketmaster the problem? Are fans directing their frustration to the right spot? There were [3.5 million] attempts to get into the Ticketmaster system. No system on the face of the Earth can do that.

Good pod this: Bob Lefsetz speaks with Fred Rosen, aka Mr. Ticketmaster, on the Bob Lefsetz Podcast. Listen here .

WeightWatchers moves into the Ozempic market with telehealth deal: WSJ reports the weight-management company is buying Sequence, which offers telehealth visits with doctors.

Bloomberg: Dimon says Ukraine war, China relations are his top concerns

+ Ukraine is ‘the thing I worry about most,’ JPMorgan CEO says.

+ He calls the potential for artificial intelligence ‘staggering.’

The politics of deglobalization favors the robots: As labor supply problems persist, automation sales are hotting up.?Leo Lewis

+ Geopolitics, runs an argument that particularly favours a cohort of Japanese companies, is increasingly colliding with labour shortages.

+ If we really are entering a phase where the manufacturing arrangements of companies in the US, China, Japan and elsewhere (South Korea and Taiwan in particular) are impelled to relocate by a new set of deglobalised carrots and sticks, then automation will be everyone’s best bet when it comes to deglobalised donkey-work.

+ All of this has enshrined concepts such as “reshoring”, “nearshoring” and “friend-shoring” as part of the new geopolitical toolkit.

+ As long as geopolitics are in the driving seat, the economic calculations that previously shaped global manufacturing will merely be passengers.

+ The pressure on companies to build multiple supply chains and reduce dependency on China creates new constraints on the ability to chase cheap labour wherever it is available.?

+ The idea that the politics of deglobalisation will continue to favour the robots has also produced some eye-catching forecasts.

+ A recent report by Grand View Research found that the global market for machine vision — the cameras, sensors and readers that empower robots and other automation technology — reached $16.9bn last year.

+ Grand View forecast that the industry will exceed $40bn by the end of the decade.

+ Goldman Sachs recently hit clients with a weighty report outlining the investment case for humanoid robots. In its “blue sky” scenario, the US labour shortage gap could be 126 per cent filled by 2030 if humanoids can be made to toil for a solid 20 hours a day. That is a mere trifle compared with the workload of brokers currently attempting to sell investors on the great robot story.

How to get behind the scenes at Frank Lloyd Wright’s Taliesin? Take a baking class.?The writer gets a room of her own at the architect’s former home in the Wisconsin hills. A weekend workshop offers ample time to explore the grounds.?NYT

Michelin 2023 awards: List of winners gives pride of place to French regions: One new three-star, four new two-stars, 39 newcomers to the ranking, and 90 green stars distinguish an edition that also highlights some very young talents.?Le Monde

More big brands brave the rocky terrain of endorsement deals with college athletes: Novel deals known as NILs—for ‘name, image, likeness’—have marketers excited at having a new raft of young influencers, but concerned by the unsettled legal issues as well as the perils of using amateurs as endorsers.?WSJ

Baseball can no longer ignore Ron DeSantis’s culture wars?Kevin B. Blackistone

Le Monde: PSG's Neymar to undergo ankle surgery, miss rest of season

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc?

Marc A. Ross | Founder + Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal

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