ITK Daily | March 3
Happy Friday.
Here’s today’s ITK Daily.
To be ITK, know this:
March 3 is the 62nd day of the year; 303 days remain until the end of the year.
US braces for G20 clash over Ukraine war: China is urging the start of peace talks and could raise that among the Group of 20 nations in India, but US officials argue Russia would not negotiate in good faith.?NYT
G20 fails to reach consensus on global agenda amid Ukraine disputes: India, which hosted the gathering of the world’s biggest economies, declared afterward that ‘multilateralism is in crisis.’?WP
Nikkei: Russia and West spar as G20 communique remains elusive for India
Narendra Modi’s pitch as G20 unifier ignores problems at home: Despite refusing to condemn Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Indian prime minister has cast himself as a healer of international divisions. Inevitably, attention is turning to his troubling domestic record.?The Times
+ Last year, Reporters Without Borders, an international media watchdog, ranked India 150th out of 180 countries in its index of press freedom.
Insular India’s exporters will struggle to fill Chinese shoes: National trade strategy will make it hard for Indian companies to take full advantage of Beijing’s geopolitical problems.?Alan Beattie
+ Multinationals wanting to reduce their geopolitical vulnerability are on the hunt for the “plus one” in a “China plus one” production strategy — or increasingly, as tensions rise between Washington and Beijing, a “China plus one, minus China.”
+ India, especially given last year’s big expansion in high-end Apple iPhone production, is an obvious contender. It’s low-cost, English-speaking and has a substantial domestic market.?
+ The reality is less impressive. India has already had a decade of opportunity to scoop up the industrial production leaving China. It has performed poorly, and its trade and investment policy is regressing towards unhelpful Indian traditions of protectionism and import substitution.
+ China may take a different position in global goods supply chains, but its size and efficiency — and role as a massive consumer market — mean it will continue to be present.
+ Clothing and shoes, ceramics, leather goods, furniture — these are all mass-employment, labour-intensive manufacturing industries in which India ought to specialise.?
+ India tries to do too much at home, which means it’s not sufficiently competitive to sell enough abroad.
+ The Modi government’s industrial policy is primarily aimed at sectors like mobiles and pharmaceuticals, which may have prestige value but are more capital-intensive and create fewer jobs.
India-Italy-Japan is the troika that can one-up China. It starts with Meloni’s Delhi visit: The Print reports underlying Rome’s rapprochement with the Indo-Pacific is its awareness of the region’s importance for its own economy. Italy, in turn, is a reliable partner for India.
Japan and India hold joint military exercises before G20 in Delhi: China’s threat is growing, forcing new alliances between unexpected countries.?The Times
+ This is Dharma Guardian, a joint exercise between the Japan Ground Self-Defence Forces and the Indian Army, which has been held in India since 2019.?
+ This is the first time that the Indians have come to Japan — over the course of the past 13 days, the two sides have fired rifles and machine guns, rappelled out of helicopters and trained side by side in the hills overlooking Lake Biwa near Kyoto.
+ For decades after the Second World War it was a clear and relatively simple region in which the forces of the US faced those of the Soviet Union.?
+ Other countries, by and large, concentrated on economic development.?
+ Now tension caused by the growing economic and military ambition of China is bringing about new alignments between countries that once seemed to have few strategic interests in common.
+ Security co-operation between Japan and India has not come out of nowhere. Japan has long been a provider of aid to Delhi. It is India’s fifth biggest investor and more than 1,400 companies have an office in the country.
Biden challenged by softening public support for arming Ukraine: NYT reports proponents of more aid fear that growing taxpayer fatigue toward shipping tens of billions of dollars overseas could undercut the war effort.
America is in over its head?Thomas Meaney
+ Absent NATO involvement, the Ukrainian Army can hold the line and regain ground, as it has done in Kharkiv and Kherson, but complete victory is very nearly impossible.
+ Russia has nearly switched its state onto a war economy setting, while the United States has yet to meet the war production needs of its foreign partners.?
+ The historian Stephen Kotkin recently argued that Ukrainians may be better off defining victory as accession to the European Union rather than a complete recapture of all Ukrainian territory.
?+ Thomas Meaney, a fellow at the Max Planck Society in Germany, writes regularly on American foreign policy and international relations.
Four nuclear states can ruin your whole strategy: Washington and its allies face new threats from Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China—all at once.?Matthew Kroenig
+ America needs to strengthen its strategic forces to provide an adequate deterrent for itself and the more than 30 formal treaty allies that rely on US nuclear weapons for their security.
+ America won the last Cold War in part because it outcompeted the Soviet Union in strategic forces. Washington should remember that lesson if it doesn’t want to lose this one.
+ Matthew Kroenig is senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and a professor of government at Georgetown. He served as a senior policy adviser in the Defense Department, 2017-21.
Where is the big China speech??Daniel W. Drezner
+ You might have noticed that in recent years/months/weeks U.S. policymakers have grown more and more hostile towards China. It is one of the few sources of bipartisan consensus on American foreign policy.
+ This is all part of a concerted effort to reframe the policy debate about China in even more hawkish terms than currently exist. And maybe this reframing is the right way to go — Chinese behavior across a range of issues has been super-hostile.
+ Rep. Gallagher describes it as an existential struggle. I am old enough to remember the last few times that term was used to describe a U.S. adversary.
+ Biden’s mantra on China has been “competition, not conflict.” It is a decent start of an idea. But the “not conflict” portion of the rhetoric needs to be fleshed out further. Otherwise, the crude and offensive ideas will proliferate.
If you were scared of Japan in the 90s, China of the 20s will terrify you.
China was extremely lucky that until recently it was able to export anything it wanted to the US without worrying about political consequences. Japan has been involved in trade disputes with the US for 50 years.
Scholz urges China to talk to Ukraine, not deliver weapons to Russia: Politico reports German chancellor issues warning to Beijing ahead of his meeting with US President Joe Biden on Friday.
China and Russia test Switzerland's long-standing neutrality: Critics say sanctioning only Moscow shows Bern's inconsistency on democratic values.?Nikkei
The Wagner Group’s growing shadow in the Sahel: What does it mean for counterterrorism in the region??Modern War Institute?
Reuters: Indonesia president breaks ground on construction of $2.6 billion hydropower plant
SCMP: China ‘two sessions’ 2023: Xi Jinping vows ‘forceful’ overhaul of finance and technology sectors
+ ‘Far-reaching’ changes to have ‘profound influence’ on economy and society, Chinese president tells leaders of political groups.
+ Details of the reform package approved by the Central Committee to be revealed when presented to NPC for endorsement at the upcoming annual session.
Xi Jinping set to overhaul China’s economic policy team at watershed congress: President expected to unveil sweeping changes to extend Communist party’s grip over finance and other sectors.?FT
What Wall Street gets wrong about Xi Jinping's new money men: China’s new lineup of top economic policymakers is about to take the stage. The view that they offer nothing more than a lurch to the left is too simplistic.?Bloomberg
+ China is about to see its biggest reshuffle in decades as a generation of internationally respected economic officials makes way for a clutch of politicians better known for strong ties with President Xi Jinping than academic credentials or overseas exposure.?
+ That prospect is ratcheting up anxiety from Wall Street and Washington to the UK and Japan, with concerns the new lineup will prove to be Xi yes-men who take China further toward state intervention and international isolation — away from the path set by a dynasty of pro-market officials that have called the shots since Deng Xiaoping first opened the door between China and the world.
+ Whisper it quietly, but perhaps trust from the top, experience toughing it out in China’s fierce political system and a pragmatic approach to policymaking are more important than rigid adherence to the economics textbook. If that’s the case, the new team may turn out to be better placed than their predecessors to push through the painful reforms China now needs.
+ Suppression of protestors in Hong Kong, human rights abuses in Xinjiang and a strategic partnership with Russia unveiled on the eve of the Ukraine invasion hardened the bleak assessment from the US and its allies.??
+ A recent Citigroup report identified three “arrows” of Li Qiang economics: Developing the private economy, opening up and attracting FDI, and promoting industrial upgrading.?
+ The Citi analysts said that judged on his work in the provinces of Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shanghai, Li’s policy style appears pro-business, relatively liberal and pragmatic.
+ China’s biggest growth challenge is that its working-age population is shrinking.?
+ The labor force is set to drop to 550 million in 2050, from a peak of close to 770 million in 2016.?
+ Pushing back the pension age to offset that drag is as important for Xi’s new leadership team as it is unpopular with China’s workers.
+ For 2023, Bloomberg Economics forecasts China’s GDP to grow 5.8%, with the end of Covid lockdowns providing a one-off boost.?
+ Even with the smartest policy mix, the inertial weight of high debt and dismal demographics is too great for that pace to be sustained. With some good decisions, Xi’s new team can avoid too sharp a slide.
OTD: In 1857, the Second Opium War with France and the United Kingdom declared war on China.
After Rishi Sunak’s Brexit deal, UK Conservatives dare to dream: Tory MPs head for Windsor ‘away day’ in buoyant mood after unexpected Brexit breakthrough.?Politico
Politico: Johnson hints he won’t vote for Sunak’s EU deal
How politics scuppered Britain’s grand plan for tech: Often contradictory digital strategies have left many wondering what London actually wants to achieve.?Politico
+ New institutions, including the British Business Bank and the Advanced Research and Invention Agency, will likely survive no matter who is living in Downing Street. Those government-backed institutions either provide money for fledging companies or are expected to help the U.K. develop next-generation technologies to keep pace with global rivals.
Partygate probe chief Sue Gray offered top job by Labour leader Starmer: BBC reports senior civil servant Sue Gray, who investigated lockdown gatherings in Downing Street, has been offered a job as Sir Keir Starmer's chief of staff.
The UK economy has a London problem — but it’s not what you think: A slowdown in the capital’s productivity is an issue for the country as a whole.?Chris Giles
+ The UK economy does therefore have a London problem.?
+ It is that the capital is no longer boosting output and incomes as it once did. New research from the Centre for Cities think-tank shows that the collapse in London’s productivity growth accounts for 42 per cent of the UK’s overall productivity puzzle since 2007, even though it houses only 15 per cent of the population and accounts for 25 per cent of economic output.
+ Median incomes after housing costs are now no higher in London than the UK average. So it is certainly true that people can and do leave the capital to escape its horrendous housing costs, even for a lower-productivity job with worse pay elsewhere in the UK.
+ Make no mistake. If the UK wants to level up its growth rate to those of other countries, it needs London to be firing on all cylinders again.
Scotland: Kate Forbes said if she wins the SNP leadership race, she would force Westminster to hand over the powers to permit a Scottish independence referendum within three months of next year’s UK election.
AFP: Biden to host EU chief von der Leyen on March 10
Mexican president: My nation has more democracy than US: Politico reports: “If they want to have a debate on this issue, let’s do it,” Andrés Manuel López Obrador said.
Reuters: Canada's opposition steps up push for public inquiry on Chinese meddling
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Bloomberg: Canadians fear China swayed elections that kept Trudeau in power
+ Poll finds majority suspect Beijing tried to tip the scales.
+ More than 40% of Conservatives say the 2021 vote was 'stolen.'
Canadians fume as migrants surge at their border: A surge in illegal crossings from the United States has led to calls to shut down a rural road on the Canadian border.?NYT
OTD: In 1845, Florida is admitted as the 27th US state.
Give Kamala Harris the credit she is due??Donna Brazile
Biden team enlists top Democrats in early bid for campaign unity: ‘Advisory board’ of party stars asked to speak and travel on president’s behalf, in part to minimize the potential for dissent.?WP
Biden echoes House Dems’ early 2024 pitch: Look what we accomplished: Politico reports: “Folks are going to understand what you’ve done. We’re going to make sure of it,” he told the caucus at their annual retreat.
AP: Youngkin adviser says 2024 race is more than Trump, DeSantis
Guardian: Pence declines to support Trump if he’s 2024 nominee: ‘I’m confident we’ll have better choices’
Trump’s loosening grip on GOP defines early 2024 campaign: Politico reports the House Republican Conference is showing in real-time how the former president's standing inside his party is shifting.
Would a large GOP presidential field help Trump? Not necessarily.?Henry Olsen
Republicans can’t wait for Trump to implode: He’s weaker than he’s been in years — yet still tops the 2024 field.?Rich Lowry
Gina Raimondo becomes China player in a job where her predecessor used to nap: The US Commerce secretary and former Rhode Island governor has brought energy to a department where her predecessor was known for taking naps.?Bloomberg
+ China has pledged to invest an additional $1.9 billion in the country’s biggest maker of memory chips. This deal may herald a renewed influx of government capital into an industry hemmed in by US sanctions.
Treasury's Liang announces interagency working group on digital dollar?Politico
Yosemite National Park closed indefinitely after latest California snowstorms: WSJ reports California Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency in 13 counties, while up to 15 feet of snow fell in some areas.
WP: With 12 feet of new snow in one week, California’s Sierra Nevada is buried
This all-but-forgotten con man sold America on ‘fake it till you make it’?Helaine Olen
+ Psychiatrist Alfred Adler, writing in the early 20th century, argued people could change habits by embracing an “act as if” strategy: assume a behavior and, eventually, it will become real.
+ Self-help culture took that to ludicrous places: “Whatever the mind can conceive and believe, it can achieve,” claimed wealth guru Napoleon Hill in “Think and Grow Rich.”
+ According to 2019 surveys done by the Pew Research Center, almost half of us say Americans are not as reliable as in the past. We don’t trust the government, media or big business. We are forever suspicious, convinced someone else wants to profit at our expense.
The e in risk?Gerald Ashley
+ "Over the years I have tended to rail against people who claim to be risk managers but in truth are only risk measurers."
+ "We are all however up against a particularly difficult issue – that of Emergence. How do things start to appear or indeed seem to suddenly smash us right in the face from nowhere?"
+ "Emergence is a key component in Complexity Science and in broad terms can be defined as when an entity is observed to have properties its parts do not have on their own, properties or behaviours that emerge only when the parts interact in a wider whole."
+ "A key component of Emergence is that it doesn’t obey nice linear patterns, so that using normal tools is often of no use or even downright misleading."
OTD: In 2017, the Nintendo Switch was released worldwide.
Crain's: Chicago lands $250 million from Zuckerberg and Chan for biotech research hub
Apple blocks update of ChatGPT-powered app: WSJ reports the iPhone maker asked the developer of an email app embedded with AI-language capabilities to set an age restriction, a sign of unease about inappropriate content.
How OpenAI CTO Mira Murati became one of tech’s most influential innovators: OpenAI unlocked the generative-AI boom with tools like ChatGPT and Dall-E—and that’s why it’s our Most Innovative Company of the Year.?FC
+ OpenAI is No. 1 on Fast Company’s list of the World’s 50 Most Innovative Companies of 2023.
+ OpenAI is taking a different approach. It’s attracted top academic talent, but it’s putting their work into slick products and mass-market deployments.?
+ Imagine a room of PhDs with the energy of an enterprise sales force, and you’ll have some sense of why OpenAI has been the first to unlock broad public interest in AI.
+ Nearly every aspect of economic activity could be affected by OpenAI’s tools. According to the McKinsey Global Institute, relatively narrow applications of AI, such as customer service automation, will be more valuable to the global economy this decade than the steam engine was in the late 1800s.?
+ AGI will be worth many, many trillions of dollars more, or so say its most ardent believers.
+ To unlock ChatGPT, for example, OpenAI needed GPT to understand human conversational values. So much of language is subjective: What is a “cool” song? Or a “fancy” restaurant??
+ Without human feedback, language models struggle to understand such concepts, let alone banter about them.
Most innovative companies list of 2023?FC
Elon Musk’s Twitter is dying a slow and tedious death: The social media platform is becoming much less interesting.?Jemima Kelly
+ Twitter is more like some kind of ghastly open-mic night than a “digital town square,” so the idea that Musk could somehow use it to bring us all together always seemed rather far-fetched to me.?
+ Twitter is becoming a less interesting product.
+ Twitter has also stopped allowing third-party apps — which have been an integral part of the user experience and of Twitter’s very development — to access its data freely, meaning most of these apps are now defunct.
+ According to SimilarWeb, a data intelligence company, Twitter’s total traffic declined by 2 percent in January on a year-on-year basis. The complete data set for February is not yet available, but in the 28 days to February 25, traffic was down 5 percent.
TikTok: US adult users will spend an average of nearly 56 minutes daily on TikTok this year, six minutes less than the time spent watching Netflix, the market tracker forecast.
Rivian’s $6.4 billion cash burn might be a record for startups: WSJ reports the electric-truck maker had a very expensive 2022, and 2023 isn’t likely to be much better.
It is freakin' expensive to start a car company.
Lessons in the price of Vice: How Shane Smith and the digital media company missed an opportunity by not selling out at the top of the industry’s boom.?Anna Nicolaou
Office mandates. Pickleball. Beer. What will make hybrid work stick??Hybrid work has been choose-your-own-adventure, but now CEOs are making their choices more permanent.?NYT
+ A closer look at New York, from the Partnership for New York City, found that 82 percent of Manhattan office employers surveyed in late January were maintaining or adopting hybrid policies in 2023. So the corporate experts — McKinsey, Mercer, PwC — have consulted their crystal balls and declared: The future is hybrid.
+ “There’s not a Hybrid Office 101, where you can pick up the book and see what 100 offices have done before,” said Richard Buery, chief executive of the Robin Hood Foundation, which requires employees to come in two days a week.
+ A study in Nature last year found that communicating virtually can inhibit creativity.?
+ Another study from researchers at Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that with the onset of remote work, the formation of what sociologists call “weak ties” — measured in terms of emails between people with mutual contacts — declined 38 percent.
+ The best hybrid arrangements promise to combine the values that all sides want: the creativity of in-person collaboration, the ease and fluidity of working from home. Some executives remain hopeful they can strike that balance.
Mariana Mazzucato: “Consultancies depend on weak governments”: The economist and author of The Big Con reflects on why capitalism is broken.?Megan Gibson
The world is finally cracking down on ‘greenwashing’: The plan to stop companies from fudging their climate goals is fundamentally flawed.?Emma Marris
Meet the superusers behind IMDb, the internet’s favorite movie site: Powered by obsessed film buffs, it’s a crowdsourced juggernaut that’s older than Google and Wikipedia. Now AI is threatening to steal the starring role.?Wired
+ Although there are over 83 million registered users of IMDb in the world, only a small fraction of those ever add information to it.
The (other) man behind the Yellowstone kingdom: How Paramount’s Chris McCarthy turned Taylor Sheridan’s cable hit into streaming’s biggest franchise.?Vulture
+ McCarthy decided he needed to do two things quickly: Make Yellowstone an even bigger, broader hit on Paramount Network and figure out how to create a halo effect that would turn cable viewers into Paramount+ subscribers.
+ Betting on Sheridan’s almost superhuman ability to generate new ideas and scripts, McCarthy announced a sprawling new multiyear overall deal with the writer-director, one which imagined a small universe of Sheridan-created series.
+ "I had studied the movie industry and understood the only way the movie industry survived to what it is today is by running into big franchises."
+ "People often get confused with what a franchise means. They often think it’s too easy, or there’s no creativity in that. In fact, it’s actually harder than new series."
+ "It’s very complementary: Paramount+ focuses on heroes, and on Showtime, we focus on the antiheroes."
Wayne Shorter, esoteric jazz elder, dies at 89: Le Monde reports the enigmatic jazz elder performed with fellow legend Miles Davis and went on to become a leading bandleader on both soprano and tenor sax, including with his group Weather Report.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc?
Marc A. Ross | Founder + Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
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