ITK Daily | March 20

Happy Monday.

Here’s today’s ITK Daily.

To be ITK, know this:?

WSJ: UBS agrees to buy Credit Suisse for more than $3 billion

WP: Two Swiss banking giants combine to quell growing global bank crisis

Credit Suisse: UBS finds deal to acquire troubled rival: Le Monde reports an agreement shepherded by Swiss authorities was found on Sunday for banking giant UBS to buy Credit Suisse, whose share price plummeted this week.

UBS agrees $3.25bn rescue deal for rival Credit Suisse: FT reports regulators engineer takeover of the stricken bank by larger Swiss competitor after the frantic weekend.

Biden’s ‘go it alone’ trade deals draw criticism: Lawmakers have raised constitutional concerns over trade pacts that bypass congressional involvement.?WSJ

+ Rather than expanding market access through tariff cuts, the current generation of agreements focus on areas such as supply chains and digital trade, which the administration says don’t require congressional signoff because they don’t involve tariff policy.?

+ Trade agreements that don’t offer better access to the US market through tariff cuts also face difficulty gaining concessions from trading partners. They also lack an enforcement mechanism where the US could withdraw tariff benefits when a partner fails to comply with the agreement.?

+ The electric-vehicle subsidy dispute has brought the tension to the surface in part because of the language used in the text of the Inflation Reduction Act. It specifically states that critical minerals used in EV batteries must originate in the US or in any country that has a “free-trade agreement” with the US.

Protests mount as Macron faces no-confidence vote on pensions reform: FT reports riot police deploy water cannon and tear gas as 540 arrested over three days of demonstrations.

WP: Notre Dame’s new spire is being built, with hopes of late 2024 reopening

China as peacemaker in the Ukraine war??The US and Europe are skeptical. Chinese officials say Xi Jinping’s upcoming trip to Moscow is a peace mission. But US and European officials say he aims to bolster Vladimir V. Putin.?NYT

+?Chinese officials have been framing his trip as a mission of peace, one where he will seek to “play a constructive role in promoting talks” between Russia and Ukraine, as a government spokesman in Beijing put it.

+ A cease-fire now would be “effectively the ratification of Russian conquest,” John Kirby, a White House spokesman, said on Friday. “It would in effect recognize Russia’s gains and its attempt to conquer its neighbor’s territory by force, allowing Russian troops to continue to occupy sovereign Ukrainian territory.”

+ European officials have had varying attitudes toward China, and some prioritize preserving trade ties with Beijing. But China’s alignment with Russia throughout the war has spurred growing suspicion and hostility in many corners of Europe.

+ Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO secretary general, put it more simply: “China doesn’t have much credibility,” especially because “they have not been able to condemn the illegal invasion of Ukraine.”

Putin praises China's willingness to play 'constructive role' in ending War in Ukraine: Xi Jinping heads to Russia on Monday hoping to deliver a breakthrough on Ukraine as Beijing seeks to position itself as a peacemaker.?Le Monde

+ Freshly reappointed for a third term in power, Xi is pushing a greater role for China on the global stage, and was crucial in mediating a surprise rapprochement between Middle Eastern rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia this month.

As Xi visits Russia, Putin sees his anti-US world order taking shape: WP reports that ostracized by the West over his war in Ukraine, and the Russian president has sought to build alliances with China, Iran, and others in challenging the United States and NATO.

What does Xi Jinping want from Vladimir Putin??Big questions loom as the Chinese leader heads to Moscow.?Economist

+ A decade later Mao’s schism with Nikita Khrushchev laid the ground for an American rapprochement with China. That brought covert Chinese assistance in the fight against Soviet forces in Afghanistan, which helped to end the cold war.?

+ It also underpinned the decades-long run of economic growth that has transformed China into a global power—and a geopolitical rival to America.

China: Xi Jinping's global ambitions: The Chinese leader, who has just been unanimously re-elected president, is to visit Moscow on March 20, with the ambition of strengthening 'the most important bilateral relations in the world.'?Le Monde

+ By choosing Russia for his first trip abroad after being reappointed as President of the People's Republic of China, as he did ten years ago, Xi is also keen to remind the world that "Sino-Russian relations are the most important bilateral relations in the world," as he said in Moscow back in 2013, another way of signaling his desire to marginalize the West.

+ While Xi will be in Moscow, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will be in New Delhi trying to make an Indo-Pacific axis organized around the US a reality, something Beijing fears greatly.

Bao Fan: Why do Chinese billionaires keep vanishing??BBC

+ The mystery shrouding his disappearance comes after a number of Chinese business leaders have gone missing in recent years, including Alibaba boss Jack Ma.

+ While vanishing billionaires tend to get much more attention, there have also been a number of less publicised cases of Chinese citizens going missing after taking part in, for example, anti-government protests or human rights campaigns.

+ While maintaining a tight grip on these areas, Xi has widened his focus to bring even more of the economy under his control. His Common Prosperity policy has seen major crackdowns in much of the economy, with the technology industry coming in for particular scrutiny.

Japan’s biggest defense fair raises questions about military expansion: At the recent event, it was clear that the problem is not just what to buy but what it means to fight.?Leo Lewis?

+ Japan’s still unamended, war-renouncing 1947 constitution pledges that the country will reject “land, sea and air forces, as well as other war potential.”

+ A key reason for Japan’s newly enlarged defence budget is its ambition of creating a more centralised, competitive and effective military industrial complex.

+ A second critical element is that, in terms of better equipping the SDF to defend the country in real conflict, the hardest political work is only just beginning.?

+ SDF’s chronic recruitment crisis: a problem that has gnawed at government calculations on defence posture for some time, but will get progressively worse as demographics continue to shrink the nation’s 18- to 26-year-old cohort.

Germany and Japan underline mutual interests in Tokyo: Chancellor Olaf Scholz is in Tokyo this weekend for German-Japanese intergovernmental consultations. The two countries have recognized that they share economic and strategic interests.?DW?

+ It is a deliberate gesture of respect towards Japan, a country that is becoming increasingly important for the German government. That wasn't always the case. For a long time, when previous German governments spoke about Asia they meant China.

+ In the Japanese government, Scholz quickly identified partners faced with the same challenge: The need to diversify. Uncoupling from China is not an option for either of the two, both governments have consistently said.

+ The Indo-Pacific region is Japan's region, but is also important for Germany. German government officials say it was appreciated here when the German frigate "Bayern" came to Japan in 2022.

+ As for geopolitical security, the German chancellor uses the joint stage in Tokyo to thank Japan again for condemning Russia's actions in Ukraine. Japan supports the so-called West's stance towards Russia and Ukraine.?

A ‘new Cold War’ looms in Africa as US pushes against Russian gains: The US is reprising its playbook in Ukraine, where it has used classified information to expose plans by Russia. Next target: Chad.?NYT

+ Fueled by guns, gold and social media, the rivalry between Russia and the West in Africa is rapidly escalating.

+ The latest flashpoint is Chad, a sprawling desert nation at the crossroads of the continent, now a plum target for Russia’s expanding effort.

+ In Africa, the more forceful American approach aims partly to shore up the crumbling position of France, which in recent years has ceded ground to Russia in former colonies like Mali and the Central African Republic.

+ “Where Wagner has been present, bad things have inevitably followed”

+ The war in Ukraine did not blunt Russia’s push into Africa. American officials say that Wagner has maintained between 3,500 and 4,500 personnel on the continent.

+ Experts caution against overestimating the impact of Russia’s African forays. The countries where Moscow operates are among the world’s poorest, and on the ground, its efforts often appear scattershot, poorly resourced and motivated by a desire to poke the West in the eye.

The math behind the new super commute: Hybrid work is changing the calculus of what it takes to live and work in separate places.?WSJ

+ A super commuter used to mean someone who trekked at least 90 minutes to work each way, often five days a week. But with more companies embracing hybrid work, the new super commuter is one of the many people who now live hundreds of miles or multiple states away from where they work. They commute fewer days but even longer distances.?

We need to create guardrails for AI: The promise offered by this technology must not be allowed to deliver a dystopian future.?Rana Foroohar

+ What if the only thing you could truly trust was something or someone close enough to physically touch? That may be the world into which AI is taking us.

In New York City, a $100,000 salary feels like $36,000: After taxes and adjusting for the sky-high cost of living, a six-figure paycheck doesn’t take you as far as you might expect.?Bloomberg

+ Cities where $100,000 doesn't go far: Where take-home pay is worth least after taxes and adjusting for cost of living:

New York, NY - $35,791

Honolulu, HI - $36,026

San Francisco, CA - $36,445

Washington, DC - $44,307

Los Angeles, CA - $44,623

The exquisite darkness of Depeche Mode: Dave Gahan and Martin Gore are back with the group’s 15th album. But after losing their bandmate Andy Fletcher last year, their return was anything but certain.?NYT

+ On Friday, Depeche Mode will release its 15th album.

+ Derided early on by the British rock press, Depeche Mode made converts in America, particularly in Southern California, where the band’s champions included Blade, then an influential DJ at KROQ-FM.

+ The gay community was only one of many disparate subcultures from which Depeche Mode built a fan base.?

+ On the West Coast, Blade said, the band made converts among “the white kids who would go surfing” but also connected with Latino listeners who heard a reflection of their own experience in Depeche Mode’s misfit anthems.?

+ No new Depeche Mode album has been certified gold in the US in 22 years.

UK billionaire bidding for Manchester United plots US expansion: Jim Ratcliffe—chemicals tycoon, a fan of “bonkers” ideas—is launching an SUV and getting into fracking in Texas.?WSJ

+ “The grand plan—I mean, there isn’t one”

+ Ratcliffe’s holdings are now spread across 25 core businesses with combined sales of roughly $65 billion in 2021.

+ Ratcliffe has made expeditions to the North and South Poles, is accustomed to taking chances that others won’t and seeing value in assets others don’t want.

+ Ratcliffe grew increasingly outspoken about what he viewed as high-tax, antibusiness policies in the UK and European Union.?

+ "sport is emotional”

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc?

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal

Caracal produces ITK Daily.

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