ITK Daily | March 14
Happy Tuesday.
Here’s today’s ITK Daily.
To be ITK, know this:?
Insight | The geopolitics of AUKUS + business implications
In September 2021, the United States launched an unprecedented trilateral security partnership with the United Kingdom and Australia.
A deal that calls for Australia to build a fleet of world-class nuclear-powered submarines.
A deal forged as a bulwark amid rising tensions with China over disputes ranging from the South China Sea to Taiwan to shaping the governance of the amorphous Indo-Pacific region.
Full post?here.
Biden, in a challenge to China, announces major submarine deal: WP reports President Biden, joining leaders of Australia and the United Kingdom in San Diego, touted the $100 billion agreement to provide nuclear submarines to Canberra.
US to sell nuke-powered subs to Australia in unprecedented deal: The three-phase plan between Australia, the UK, and the US was unveiled by President Joe Biden and his counterparts.?Politico
The Anglophone military alliance in Asia is seriously ambitious: America, Australia, and Britain will build, man, and arm each other’s nuclear subs in Asia.?Economist
How the submarine deal fits into the complex US strategy for the Pacific?David Ignatius
+ The AUKUS partnership is a “present at the creation” moment for US strategy in the Indo-Pacific. But despite China’s fears, the agreement isn’t a NATO-style containment pact. It’s the hub of something more flexible and adaptive.
+ A way to describe the new U.S. Asia policy is as a kind of “zone defense” — a web that links different groups of countries that all worry about China. At the center of many of these nodes is Japan, which is becoming America’s most important ally in the region as it embraces rearmament.
+ Several triangles of power are emerging: The United States is helping Japan mend fences with South Korea and form a strong tripartite security relationship. Japan is helping the United States improve relations with the Philippines, a country that had been leaning toward China but got tired of being muscled by Beijing. Similar relationships are evolving to connect the United States and Japan with such swing states as Vietnam and Indonesia.
+ AUKUS matters partly because it brings Britain, a European power, into America’s long-term defense plans for Asia. The United States will share sensitive nuclear technology to provide attack submarines for Australia and augment Britain’s fleet.
+ A second “pillar” of AUKUS will involve sharing other advanced defense technologies among the three countries and perhaps other partners, such as Japan.?
+ The missing link in this grand strategy, unfortunately, is economic policy. The Biden administration has scorned the trade alliance known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, but it hasn’t come up with anything powerful to replace it.
+ Biden needs to recognize that America’s partners in Asia depend on trade. Until he demonstrates that he’s willing to defy political resistance to trade in the Democratic Party — and show Asian partners that US markets will remain open to their exports — some of the benefits of the new strategy for the region will be blunted.
The US, UK, and Australia send China a message: A new agreement to share the technology for nuclear-powered submarines could help ease tensions throughout the Pacific.?James Stavridis
+ These warships are the apex predators of the high seas. They overmatch their Chinese and Russian counterparts in stealth, range and offensive firepower.?
+ When powered by nuclear reactors and freed of the necessity of ever surfacing for oxygen, Virginia-class subs are deadly killers that threaten any surface ship on the planet.
+ It is important to note what is not in the agreement: nuclear weapons. This is all about nuclear propulsion.
+ The crucial strategic message here is clear: the US, UK and Australia are coordinating at the very highest levels on defense strategy. This will create a natural rallying point for other nations — Japan, South Korea, Singapore — that are interested in advanced technology.
+ Yes, the prospect of a fleet of nuclear submarines Down Under will make Beijing nervous. But for Washington, London and Canberra, coordinating on the world’s most advanced warfighting technology is smart strategy.
The age of American naval dominance is over: The United States has ceded the oceans to its enemies. We can no longer take freedom of the seas for granted.?The Atlantic
+ It is time for the United States to think and act, once again, like a seapower state. As the naval historian Andrew Lambert has explained, a seapower state understands that its wealth and its might principally derive from seaborne trade, and it uses instruments of sea power to promote and protect its interests.?
+ “If you like Walmart,” I often told my mother, “then you ought to love the US Navy. It’s the Navy that makes Walmart possible.”
+ Today, it is difficult to appreciate the scale or speed of the transformation wrought after World War II. The war destroyed or left destitute all of the world powers opposed to the concept of a mare liberum—a “free sea”—first enunciated by the Dutch philosopher Hugo Grotius in 1609.
+ The United States and Great Britain, the two traditional proponents of a free sea, had emerged not only triumphant but also in a position of overwhelming naval dominance. Their navies were together larger than all of the other navies of the world combined. A free sea was no longer an idea. It was now a reality.
+ The United States began its life purposefully as a seapower: The Constitution explicitly directed Congress “to provide and maintain a Navy.”
+ In the end, the Second World War was won not by bullets or torpedoes but by the American maritime industrial base.
+ The United States will need to implement a seapower industrial policy that meets its national-security needs: building steel plants and microchip foundries, developing hypersonic glide bodies and autonomous unmanned undersea vehicles.?
+ The Navy, however, is not just a wartime force. It has a peacetime mission unique among the military services: showing the flag and defending American interests by means of a consistent and credible forward presence.
+ Our economy and security rely on the sea—a fact so fundamental that it should be at the center of our approach to the world.
+ Read: Seablindness: How political neglect is choking American seapower and what to do about it - click here.
AUKUS, the Anglosphere, and the return of great power rivalry: The US, the UK, and Australia believe that preparing for a war with China may be the best way of preventing one.?Gideon Rachman
+ AUKUS is not a grand philosophical statement like the Atlantic Charter. But the underlying geopolitical intent is clear. The nations of the “Anglosphere” are renewing their alliance — this time to counter China’s efforts to gain naval dominance in the Pacific.
+ For the designers of AUKUS, the purpose of the pact is not to wage a war but to prevent one.?
+ Arthur Sinodinos, Australia’s ambassador to Washington, has described AUKUS as a “moonshot.”
+?The US, the UK and Australia, having fought on the same side in two world wars, are again preparing for a possible global conflict.
One for the ages: Albanese meets his moment on the world stage: Under cinematically blue skies with a submarine in the background, the Australian leader stood with his US and British counterparts to mark a momentous new chapter.?SMH
AFP: UK to boost defense spending over China, Russia concerns
AFP: North Korea launches two cruise missiles, ahead of US-South Korea drills
AP: US, South Korea hold drills as North sub test-fires missiles
Biden seeks tension-easing call with China’s Xi Jinping: With relations frosty in the wake of spy balloon controversy and with allies’ plan to outfit Australia with nuclear submarines, the US president looks to dial down tensions with Beijing.?WP
China plans new Middle East summit as diplomatic role takes shape: Beijing’s involvement in the details of the dispute between Saudi Arabia and Iran led to a re-establishment of ties.?WSJ
China’s Xi plans to speak with Zelensky for first time since Ukraine war broke out: WSJ reports conversation would likely follow the Chinese leader’s meeting with Russia’s Putin next week.
India is getting an eye-watering big transport upgrade: Overhauling the country’s roads and railways will make it richer and much better connected.?Economist
WP: Moscow open to extending Black Sea grain deal
Moldova says it thwarted Russia-linked plot ahead of anti-government protests: Politico reports the arrests to come soon after the US warned that Moscow is trying to ‘weaken the Moldovan government.’
Italy blames Russia's Wagner group for surge in migration: DW reports more than 20,000 people have reached Italy's shores this year, and the government says the influx is deliberate. It now wants NATO's help.
Finns don’t love Sanna Marin as much as you do: Politico reports Finland’s prime minister remains popular with voters, but her Social Democrats are trailing their main rival ahead of April?2 election.
SNP leadership race: Independence vote will be price of Labour pact?The Times
+ Sky News/YouGov poll shows 39% of Scots supporting independence versus 47% who want to remain in the UK
Biden to visit Ireland on anniversary of Good Friday Agreement: FT reports Rishi Sunak issues an invitation to celebrations in Belfast, with the US president also planning to travel to the Republic.
领英推荐
Ten years of Pope Francis's pontificate in ten words: On March 13, 2013, Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio was designated by his peers to succeed Benedict XVI. Ten years on, his record is marked by both reform and scandal.?Le Monde
AP: Nicaragua proposes suspending Vatican ties after comments
AP: Vice President Harris to visit Africa in latest US outreach
Trump continues to suck the air out of the GOP primary: There was a window when the Republican party looked like it was ready to move on, but the party is once again “reliving the worst” parts of the Trump presidency.?Politico
Biden administration approves huge Alaska oil project: NYT reports the administration also announced new limits on Arctic drilling in an apparent effort to temper criticism over the $8 billion Willow oil project, which has faced sharp opposition.
TikTok hires Biden-connected firm as it finds itself under DC’s microscope: Politico reports the popular Chinese-owned app has turned to SKDK, which has a number of veterans in the administration.
Biden’s TikTok dilemma: A ban could hurt Democrats more than Republicans: WSJ reports the app is popular with younger Americans and is emerging as a vital campaign asset for Democrats.
The weekend US officials hatched a plan to stave off a banking crisis: The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank prompted regulators to announce a package to restore public confidence.?FT
Washington’s bank rescue fails to erase all doubts: On Wall Street, bank stocks were ravaged, with regional institutions hit hardest.?WP
The end of Silicon Valley (bank)?Stratechery
+ More government, though, means replacing trust with more rules, regulations, and restrictions, which will have a long-term effect on innovation. This, perhaps, is the inevitable outcome of tech having set disruption as its objective function: the ultimate casualty may be the Silicon Valley that once was, not just its bank.
WP: Signature Bank’s collapse spells trouble for cryptocurrency industry
VW?has chosen Canada for its first-ever North American battery gigafactory.
Global Great Lakes = The future of the global economy is the Great Lakes.
Porsche steps up pressure to free e-fuel cars from combustion engine ban: FT reports chief executive Oliver Blume urges synthetic fuel exemption as carmaker unveils record profits.
Silver Lake to acquire software company Qualtrics in $12.5bn deal: FT reports buyout with Canada’s largest pension fund is expected to be one of biggest this year.
A supermarket megamerger will redefine what you buy at the grocery store: Kroger and Albertsons want to merge in a $20 billion deal. If antitrust regulators approve, the definition of a grocery store grows further.?WSJ
+ The companies together employ more than 710,000 employees and operate nearly 5,000 stores, including Ralphs, Food 4 Less, Safeway and Vons among them. Both companies run stores in Southern California, Seattle and Chicago, as well as in other areas. They have more than 50 manufacturing plants and nearly 70 distribution centers.
+ Kroger executives have been open about seeing the company’s future beyond its grocery aisles. The chain already runs more than 1,000 Starbucks locations in stores.
+ It is now setting up what the industry calls “ghost kitchens” across California, Texas and Ohio that allow customers to order restaurant meals and pick them up from some stores, without any actual restaurants.
+ Besides being the biggest US grocery store operator, Cincinnati-based Kroger has been expanding its private-label business to boost margins and capitalize on emerging trends in food. It runs more than 30 of its own plants that make store-brand fan favorites, including strawberry lemonade seltzer and unicorn-swirl ice cream.
+ “What is a modern grocery store?” said Suzy Monford, who previously led e-commerce and fresh food departments at Kroger and now leads consultancy Food Sport International. “We feed you. We clothe you. We help you manage all your prescriptions. We are the place you go to when you celebrate.”?
Chick-fil-A wants to serve its sandwiches in Asia and Europe: WSJ reports the fast-food restaurant chain plans a $1 billion international expansion, with locations in five international markets by 2030.
Four Seasons and Miami developer to open Vatican City hotel: WSJ reports Fort Partners aims to have a hotel in a 15th-century palace open in 2025.
Bloomberg: CIA goes to South by Southwest to look for technology that can ‘supercharge’ spies
+ Agency’s deputy director makes a case for collaboration.
+ Wireless technology and quantum computing are named as focuses.
Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo: ‘A city’s creativity doesn’t depend on cars. That’s the 20th?century’: Accused of desecrating the French capital, the politician wants more bikes, green spaces, and social housing.?FT
+ Parisians who used to enjoy driving across the city are outraged. They accuse Hidalgo of making the capital less easy and less pleasant to live in. Some on social media use the hashtag #SaccageParis
+ The world will soon have an opportunity to judge her changes. Paris hosts the 2024 Olympics. Where today there are roadworks, there will be 60km of bicycle lanes, allowing visitors to cycle to each venue.
+ Far-right conspiracy theorists have taken aim at the 15-minute city concept, claiming the idea is part of a socialist plot to control the world.
+ Paris’s population fell by about 75,000 people between 2014 and 2020.
+ The mayor attributes the falling population to property prices and divorce rates.?
+ She criticises the rental platform Airbnb, “which has made us lose a lot of housing”. Will she go ahead with a promised referendum on Airbnb? “For now, no — because also the Olympics are coming.” But its presence in Paris is “still not” a settled matter.
+ How does Hidalgo explain the failure of her presidential campaign? Not by blaming her message or over-reach. She blames President Emmanuel Macron for reshaping French politics, so there isn’t a “reasonable right and reasonable left” but a centre against populists of left and right. “I knew there would be little chance of winning.”
‘Navalny,’ film about dissident fighting Kremlin, wins Academy Award: Politico reports it was the most political moment in an otherwise mostly politics-free telecast.
When the light, shadow, and stars aligned: Standing where Ansel Adams stood: An enigmatic photograph by America’s most famous landscape photographer led to a forensic hunt to identify exactly when and where it was taken.?NYT
+ He emphasized his technique for making perfect exposures, called the Zone System.
David Hockney and his intimate allusions at the Musée Granet, in Aix-en-Provence: The facility is exhibiting the collection of works by the famous contemporary English artist held by the Tate Modern in London.?Le Monde
+ The exhibition in Aix is an illustration of this promotional tactic and its success in terms of attendance has demonstrated its effectiveness.
+ Hockney as an observer and moralist is so much more interesting than the great master, however brilliant he may be.
Saudi Arabia thought golf could save its image. It whiffed.?If the LIV Golf startup was meant to rebrand the kingdom, a year of foreign agent controversies, 9/11 evocations, and events at Trump properties hasn’t helped.?Politico
+ With an assist from armies of Washington lobbyists, communications pros, lawyers and strategists, a golf story that began with splashy hires of top sports talent has evolved into a minefield of hot-button, distinctly non-athletic Beltway issues, from antitrust, foreign influence-peddling and human rights to 9/11, national sovereignty and Donald Trump.
+ And, in most of these matters, the storylines have played out in ways that give problematic aspects of Saudi Arabia’s public image more attention, not less.
+ Back in Washington, the more fraught political competition continues: PGA’s newest lobbying hire is Jeff Miller, the GOP power broker and one of the closest associates of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc?
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal produces ITK Daily.
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