ITK Daily | January 30

Happy Monday.

Here’s today’s ITK Daily.

To be ITK, know this:

Bloomberg: US general sees China war risk for 2025 in memo cited by NBC

+ Defense official tells outlet it’s not the Pentagon’s view.

Nikkei: US general predicts China conflict over Taiwan in 2025

+ Unusual memo reflects a sense of urgency over Beijing's intentions on the island.

Top House Foreign Affairs Republican agrees with possibility of war with China: “I hope he's wrong as well. I think he's right, though, unfortunately,” Rep. Michael McCaul said about a US Air Force general who reportedly predicted war with China.?Politico

Can China's young generation reverse population decline??China's government is offering benefits for young people to start families. However, many women say the country's demographic crisis won't push them to have children.?DW

FT: NATO?boss seeks to strengthen Asian alliances

+ NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg visits South Korea, where he will meet with senior officials, including Foreign Minister Park Jin and Minister of National Defense Lee Jong-sup. Stoltenberg will then head to Japan.

Tuesday: US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets South Korean counterpart Lee Jong-sup in Seoul to discuss military cooperation and Washington's commitment to South Korea.

Erdogan says Finland may join NATO without Sweden: AFP reports Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said for the first time Sunday that Ankara could accept Finland into NATO without its Nordic neighbor Sweden.

How activists shaped Sweden’s NATO debacle: By riling Turkey, the country’s virtually perfect application has been sabotaged. But while such regimes may be tricky to handle, sometimes you need them.?Elisabeth Braw

+ “I’d advise future NATO applicants to check member states’ election schedule before submitting their application,” an exasperated Swedish legislator told me last year.?

+ “It’s incredibly difficult to discern who’s behind such activities in a liberal democracy and which activities are partly or wholly manipulated by foreign actors,” said Anton Lif, a crisis management consultant with the Swedish firm Combitech. “Until there’s proof showing malign influence, I’ll assume that these protests were simply part of free speech in Sweden, but obviously such activities can also be exploited by malign actors,” he added.

+ One might ask whether Russia actually had a hand in the spectacle, and whether the activists are simply useful idiots. Either way, other countries should take note.

+ Authoritarian-leaning countries are tricky to handle in the first place — and sometimes you need them.

+ Elisabeth Braw is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and an advisor at Gallos Technologies.

The Cold War roots of Scholz’s tank trauma: Olaf Scholz’s long dithering before sending tanks is symptomatic of a deep-seated mindset that détente won the Cold War, not Reagan’s belligerence.?Matthew Karnitschnig

+ "Putin’s erstwhile socialist comrades in Berlin may not be willing to ignore the atrocities he has committed in Ukraine, but as the German chancellor has proved over the past year, the Russian leader can at the very least count on them to buy him more time. Scholz’s spinmeisters are now declaring “All’s well that ends well.” That may provide some comfort to the chancellor and his inner circle."

How do Germany and the EU fund military gear to Ukraine??Germany and its EU partners have channeled billions of euros worth of military equipment to Kyiv. That aid comes from a range of different sources.?DW

Tanks to Ukraine mark change in Moroccan foreign policy: DW reports Morocco has become the first African country to send tanks to Ukraine. But it's not just doing so because it believes in the Ukrainian cause.

+ Germany and Poland are set to begin tank training programs for Ukrainian forces in days.

+ Britain’s Defense Ministry said Ukrainian tank operators have arrived in the United Kingdom.

At the Pentagon, push to send F16s to Ukraine picks up steam: Politico reports that Kyiv has recently renewed its request for modern fighters after the US and Germany approved transferring tanks.

A documentary about journalists in Mariupol has won an award at the Sundance Film Festival: 20 Days in Mariupol won the Audience Award: World Cinema Documentary.?

Ukraine belongs in NATO: Henry Kissinger now says the idea of a neutral Kyiv is ‘no longer meaningful.’?Bernard-Henri Lévy

Russia’s footprint grows in Africa as France leaves Burkina Faso: The former colonial power’s withdrawal leaves a vacuum that the mercenary Wagner Group is eager to fill.?Bloomberg

+ The end of France’s roughly 400-person mission in Burkina Faso comes ten months after its troops were kicked out of neighboring Mali, where French forces spent nearly a decade leading a losing fight against a growing jihadist insurgency, which killed thousands and displaced millions as it spread across the Sahel.

+ In both countries, the French withdrawal occurred as government leaders strengthened their ties to the Kremlin, which has used the mercenary Wagner Group to gain a foothold in the Central African Republic, Libya and Sudan.

+ “Through companies that exploit Africa’s natural resources, political operatives who undermine democratic actors, front companies posing as NGOs, and social media manipulation, Prigozhin spreads disinformation to influence African politics in Russia’s favor," the US State Department warned last May.

+ The colonial history, alongside French troops’ failure to stop the spread of extremist activity in the region, has contributed to a growing sense of resentment.??

+ These dynamics created an opportunity for the Wagner Group, which Mali’s ruling military junta hired in December 2021 to assist in its counter-insurgency efforts. Burkina Faso has denied doing the same.

+ Civilian deaths have roughly quadrupled to more than 2,000 since Mali deployed Wagner mercenaries in December 2021, up from about 550 in the previous year, according to data collected by ACLED, a Washington-based group.

+ No country in the Sahel has suffered as precipitous a collapse as Burkina Faso, which just eight years ago was seen as relatively stable and a tourism destination. Now huge swathes of its territory are outside government control, thousands have died and about 2 million people – or a tenth of the population – are displaced.

Qatar joins Lebanon gas exploration consortium: AFP reports Lebanon announced Sunday that Qatar had entered a consortium to explore for offshore gas in waters near Israel, following a historic border deal last year between the two foes.

Egypt unveils 4,300-year-old mummy, tombs: Archaeologists found the gold-covered mummy inside a limestone sarcophagus that had remained shut for more than four millennia. It was among several recent discoveries, including four tombs found outside Cairo.?DW

WSJ: Israel strikes Iran amid international push to contain Tehran

+ Israel carried out a drone strike targeting a defense compound in Iran.

+ Israeli and American officials discuss new ways to combat Iranian operations.

Why India as new superpower could spell trouble for the West: The world's largest democracy drifts away from ideal as its power grows.?Nikkei

+ In a bitterly divided world rife with uncertainties, India is seeking to become a superpower that could eclipse China.

+ India showed its ambition to play a greater role in world affairs during the Voice of the Global South Summit, an online meeting the country hosted on Jan. 12-13. According to the Indian government, 125 developing nations took part in the conference, discussing a range of issues in 10 sessions, each focused on specific policy areas.

+ "India's foreign policy carries three major burdens from its past," citing "the 1947 Partition," which divided the territory ruled by Britain into India and Pakistan. This, the foreign minister argued, "reduced the nation both demographically and politically," and gave China "more strategic space in Asia."

+ "India's diplomacy is aimed at countering China by using its ties with another authoritarian power, Russia, [as a deterrent]."

+?If the 21st Century turns out to be India's era, rather than China's, the world would find itself dealing with a superpower that is no less troublesome.

Bloomberg: Venezuela opposition starts talks for funds with Spain meeting

+ Opposition delegates met Spain’s Albares Sunday in Madrid.

+ Delegates also visit Berlin, Brussels, Lisbon, and Paris.

Inside a nuclear war bunker built to save Canada’s leaders: Amid renewed tensions with Russia, tourists are flocking to a decommissioned nuclear fallout shelter that Canada built to preserve its government during a nuclear war.?NYT

+ Since its construction began in 1959, the bunker has carried a variety of official names: Emergency Army Signals Establishment, Central Emergency Government Headquarters and Canadian Forces Station Carp.?

+ But it came to be known as the Diefenbunker after John Diefenbaker, the prime minister who commissioned it, more as a form of mockery than in his honor.

+ The Canadian?military also assumed that the Soviets had reserved their then-limited number of warheads for the United States and would not “waste” them on Canadian targets.

+ In that scenario, planners assumed that radiation from Soviet bombers shot down over Canada would be the main threat.

+ Diefenbaker vowed that he would never visit it and would stay home with his wife if the bombers and missiles came.?

Take it from K-pop's finest: Globalization lives!?Despite dire predictions, neither the financial meltdown nor Covid nor today’s supposed “polycrisis” can unravel the world economy.?Niall Ferguson

+ As for cultural globalization, BTS is part of a wider trend toward Asian fusion. TikTok, a Chinese platform, now has over 1.53 billion users, close to a third of the world’s online population.

+ While it may be argued that the globalization of trade in goods has peaked, cross-border trade in services continues to grow relative to output.

+ It is worth remembering that the surprising persistence of globalization is no guarantee of a harmonious world.

Tuesday: The International Monetary Fund releases an update to its World Economic Outlook, which will reveal its latest global growth projections.?

US population center trending toward South this decade: AP reports Last year, the South outgrew other US regions by well over 1 million people through births outpacing deaths and domestic and international migration, according to population estimates from the US Census Bureau. The Northeast and Midwest lost residents, and the West grew by an anemic 153,000 people, primarily because a large number of residents left for a different US region. The West would have lost population if not for immigrants and births outpacing deaths.

Expect to see a lot more of First Lady Jill Biden in 2024: Bloomberg reports Joe Biden’s expected re-election bid will thrust his wife, Jill Biden, further into the public eye as the White House deploys the self-described introvert to help win over women.

If Biden doesn’t run: New Hampshire Democrats don’t want the president to be their 2024 nominee.?James Freeman

Trump tries a new campaign tack: Small-scale: At two events on Saturday, Donald J. Trump embraced more traditional campaigning as he struggles to maintain support for his third White House bid.?NYT

+ For his third campaign, it’s back to basics.

+ “I am more angry now and I am more committed now than ever.”

+ Longtime donors have been reluctant to recommit. Leaders in the Republican National Committee are openly encouraging other candidates to run. Voters rejected the handpicked candidates he vowed would win Republicans control of the Senate, but whose losses instead left the chamber in Democratic hands.

+ Still, Trump maintains his perch as the most powerful Republican. An Emerson College poll this week showed Trump with support from 55 percent of primary voters, nearly twice as much as his closest competitor, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida.

+ The biggest risk to Mr. Trump’s campaign may not be political so much as legal: the five criminal and civil investigations targeting both his conduct before he was a candidate in 2016 and his efforts to thwart the peaceful transfer of power after he lost in November 2020.

+ “We have no problem with what Trump has done as president. I supported him. But DeSantis can bring together the Chamber of Commerce Republicans and the MAGA Republicans. He is less bombastic, and he understands the legislative process.”

From Make America Great Again to “I am more angry now and I am more committed now than ever.”

Trump's third official run for President is going to wild.

Republicans vow to probe US banks’ ‘ESG agenda’ in Congress: FT reports lawmaker Andy Barr says the financial system has been ‘co-opted by the intolerant left.’

The $400K conundrum: Why America’s urban rich don’t feel that way?Megan McArdle

+ "These people are rich by any measure, and they are spending their money on things only rich people can afford, such as living in the best school districts and in or near amenity-rich megacities. However, they are rich in a peculiarly modern way: in the context of a meritocracy where elites are supposed to re-earn their position anew each day."

+ "Compared with the old establishment that survived on inherited wealth and social position, they are insecure, and many worry that their offspring will be downwardly mobile, which leads them to spend virtually all of their outsize disposable incomes on preparing the children to become star performers in the next round of competition."

+ "But then, if you could be satisfied with a solid ordinary life, you probably wouldn’t have spent decades working overtime and delaying gratification in order to make it into the 2 percent."

Uniqlo brings skateboarding streetwear vibe to t-shirt sub-brand: Bloomberg reports Japanese artist and graphic designer Kosuke Kawamura unveiled last week his first creations as creative director of the apparel maker’s T-shirt line, called UT. He worked with professional skateboarders such as Alex Olson to develop products with over-sized silhouettes and contemporary graphics.

How Barnes & Noble came back from near dead?Ezra Klein

+ “How is it that bookstores do justify themselves in the age of Amazon?” James Daunt, the chief executive of Barnes & Noble, asked during the Book Industry Study Group’s 2020 Keynote.

+ “They do so by being places in which you discover books with an enjoyment, with a pleasure, with a serendipity that is simply impossible to replicate online. And to do that, you have to have a good bookstore.”

+ “My view was that the reason bookstores had failed to defend themselves against Amazon is simply they weren’t good enough,and the only reason they would fail to defend themselves against Kindle is they wouldn’t be good enough.”

+ Daunt’s diagnosis of the industry is refreshingly simple: Good bookstores thrive, bad bookstores die.?

+ Daunt’s focus has been devolving power to local store managers. A great bookstore, he thinks, is a reflection of the community in which it exists.

+ On whether Barnes & Noble tracked the demographics of its customers: “My predecessors spent enormous amounts of energy and effort to answer questions of that sort, and I spend literally zero,” he said. “I have no interest at all in even beginning to think of that as a question. It’s totally irrelevant. Our stores are for everybody.”

+ Barnes & Noble’s resurgence is a reminder that there is nothing inevitable about its (or any bookstore’s) demise. Great bookstores and libraries still provide something the digital world cannot: a place not just to buy or borrow books, but to be among them.

The M&M’s aren’t done with us yet: Was the company’s recent decision to sideline its spokescandies a response to cultural backlash, or just an elaborate stunt leading up to the Super Bowl??NYT

+ “The mistake that M&M’s made was that they didn’t own the story,” said Alex Center, who formerly worked as a designer and brand strategist for Coca-Cola, and has also worked on campaigns for New Balance and Apple. “They didn’t embrace the conversation that was happening about their brand. They were trying to push it one way with a cheery message of unity.”

+ Debbie Millman, the co-founder and chair of the School of Visual Arts’s graduate program in branding, agreed that M&M’s handled the backlash to its rebrand poorly.

+ Legacy brands have found it difficult to connect with young people particularly when its ad campaigns address social-justice issues.

+ Advertising tends to be most effective when brands communicate their values instead of what they think young consumers want to hear.

+ M&M’s has yet to do that, but the company seems to be dangling its response to all this attention with its coming Super Bowl ad. Consumers will just have to wait and see.

Amsterdam’s underwater bike garage is next-level cycling infrastructure: Bloomberg reports the Dutch capital spent $65 million to create a parking structure that can store 7,000 bicycles in a submerged facility at the city’s central train station.

ChatGPT is smart, fast and easy — all the reasons you should be wary?Mitch Albom?

+ "What it left out was this. Joy. There is a joy in taking the language you have learned and reassembling it to create your thoughts. Spark. There’s a spark of imagination that comes when you string ideas together."

+ "And magic. The magic of creativity."

+ "As Marvin and Tammi once sang, 'Ain't nothing like the real thing.'"?

BYD?will start selling its electric vehicle models in Japan.

Toyota rethinks EV strategy with new CEO: The auto maker’s new boss will confront a question dividing the corporate world: whether to take gradual steps or big leaps ahead in the move to green technology.?WSJ

+ Akio Toyoda said last week that he was handing the reins at Toyota to a successor.?

+ Koji Sato will take over in April as president and CEO, while Toyoda will become chairman.

Will the metaverse be entertaining??Ask South Korea. In the world’s testing ground for tech, K-pop singers are being spun up out of pixels and doing battle in a virtual universe.?NYT

+ In the metaverse — whatever that is, exactly — the normal rules don’t apply. And the Korean entertainment industry is delving into the possibilities, confident that fans will happily follow.

+ Countries like South Korea “are often looked at like a test bed for how the future is going to pan out. If any trend is going to move from overseas to the US, I would put South Korea at the front of the line in terms of who is likeliest to be that springboard.”

+ According to McKinsey, more than $120 billion was spent globally on developing metaverse technology in the first five months of 2022.

WSJ: ‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ climbs box-office ranks with help from Chinese audiences

What happened to decoupling?

Are you there, MBA? it’s me, industry: Business school graduates usually go into consulting, finance, or tech. But there’s a whole world of other opportunities out there.?Suzy Welch

Senior housing that seniors actually like: “Granny flats” are popping up in backyards across the country, affording Americans a new housing option. Some communities are not happy about it.?NYT

+ Accessory dwelling units — also known as in-law suites, granny flats, casitas or guest cottages — come in many forms.?

+ About 80 percent of the nation’s neighborhoods permit only single-family homes.

Learning styles don’t exist: A teaching approach that is based on students’ preferences sounds laudable. But this misunderstands how learning happens.?Carl Hendrick

+ Learning styles theory represents a form of retrospective absolution.

+ Education was largely shaped by mass industrialization and privileged efficiency over individualism.

+ In the United Kingdom, mass schooling grew out of the Sunday school movement, where children were given instruction mainly on reading and literacy.

+ Looking back, learning styles can be seen not only as a reaction to the earlier ‘factory school’ model of education but something that emerged from a progressive movement that stressed individual differences in children and sought to apply more empirical methods to the study of how learning happens.

+ Learning style tools measure is not a learning?style, but rather a learning?preference.

+ It is emblematic of a wider malaise in education, still hugely prone to faddism and pedagogical?snake oil.

Could Russian, Belarusian athletes compete at Paris Games??DW reports some Russian and Belarusian athletes may be a step closer to being allowed to return to international competition. An IOC proposal has been sharply criticized by Ukraine and athletes' representatives.

+ Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he sent a letter to French President Emmanuel Macron encouraging him to bar Russian athletes from competing in the 2024 Paris Olympics as the war rages on.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc?

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal

Caracal produces ITK Daily.

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