ITK Daily | January 29

Happy Sunday.

Here’s today’s ITK Daily.

To be ITK, know this:

Air Force general predicts war with China in 2025, tells officers to prep by firing 'a clip' at a target, and 'aim for the head': “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me will fight in 2025," said Gen. Mike Minihan in a memo sent to the officers he commands and obtained by NBC News.

DC is awash with peeps not wanting to be the next Neville Chamberlain.

The mood on Capitol Hill when it comes to China is down to the right.

Bloomberg: Biden wins deal with Netherlands, Japan on China chip export limit

+ Deal comes Friday after two days of talks in Washington.

+ Netherlands to ban sales of some immersion lithography gear.

FT: Japanese firms step up intelligence gathering as US-China tensions mount

China’s top nuclear-weapons lab used US chips decades after ban: WSJ reports the state-owned institute has continued buying computer chips made by Intel and Nvidia despite its inclusion on a US export blacklist in 1997.

China targets consumption in bid to drive growth: FT reports analysts hope abandonment of zero COVID policies will unleash a flood of consumer spending.

Old stand-by for the Chinese Communist Party - keep the Party going with more consumer spending.

Bloomberg: Gandhi walks 2,000 miles to challenge Modi in 2024 election

+ Rahul Gandhi’s march attempts to revive his party’s image.

+ Some analysts still doubt the trek will shift focus from Modi.

Upstart Indian shipper helps get Russian oil to market: WSJ reports Russia is keeping its oil moving, defying fears that sanctions would lead to a plunge in exports, with the help of several international startups plying new trade routes to mostly Asian buyers.

Some Western backers of Ukraine worry that time might be on Russia’s side: WSJ reports officials in some capitals fear the Kremlin, which is willing to keep throwing men and materiel into the war, could gain the upper hand in any lengthy war of attrition.

Tanks help but the battle of wills is how the Ukraine war will be decided: Zelensky was boosted last week by Germany’s fearsome Leopards. His troops need to avoid getting bogged down in a battle of attrition. Mark Galeotti

Key lawmaker: Biden mulling broad prohibitions on US investments in Chinese tech: The administration is considering a more aggressive walling off of American capital flows into Chinese high-tech sectors than previously known, says House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul. Politico

TikTok ban faces obscure hurdle: The Berman Amendments: WSJ reports lawmakers face decades-old measures that protect free flow of content internationally, even with hostile nations.

+ The "Berman Amendment" (which was revised in 1994 to include electronic media) stipulates that transactions involving "information and informational materials" are generally exempt from the purview of the presidential regulation

Czech Republic: Petr Pavel's election brings back a pro-European moderate to the presidency: Le Monde reports the former chief of staff will succeed the pro-Russian and eurosceptic Milos Zeman. With more than 58% of the vote, Petr Pavel won a landslide victory over populist former prime minister, Andrej Babis.

Guardian: Pro-western Petr Pavel sweeps to landslide win in race for Czech presidency

Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo uses the scooter to politically rebound: By calling for a vote on whether to keep electric scooters on the streets of Paris, the socialist mayor aims to regain public attention and demonstrate her willingness to listen to the people. Le Monde

The Times: Zahawi sacked as Tory chairman over tax affairs

Britain’s Rishi Sunak fires party chair in latest scandal for Conservatives: WP reports Nadhim Zahawi was dismissed over a “serious breach” of the ministerial code, which governs how ministers should behave, Sunak said in a letter to Zahawi.

+ Allegations of “Tory sleaze” and mismanagement continue to dog the government.

UK PM Sunak fires Conservative Party chair Zahawi after tax row: Le Monde reports the former chancellor has faced extensive questions in parliament and the media after it emerged he agreed to pay millions in a settlement with the tax department.

Can Rishi Sunak get out of first gear now he’s fired Nadhim Zahawi? Tory insiders fear the PM is spinning and getting nowhere, though others profess a quiet faith that he will repeat John Major’s 1992 trick. The Times

Inside the ‘Qatargate’ graft scandal rocking the EU FT

WP: High-level visit highlights US balancing act on Israel, Palestinians

+ Secretary of State Antony Blinken lands in Israel this week.

+ The BBC’s Arabic radio service went off the air for the final time on Friday after 85 years of broadcasting.

Israel moves to ‘strengthen’ Jewish settlements after shootings: Guardian reports Benjamin Netanyahu announces punitive steps against Palestinians in response to attacks that killed seven Israelis.

Israel, Palestinians caught in escalating cycle of violence in Jerusalem and West Bank: WSJ reports two gun attacks in Jerusalem and a wave of Israeli raids in the West Bank have diminished the space for either side to find an off-ramp.

'The ‘Shiite crescent’ of Lebanon, Syria and Iraq is at risk of crumbling': Beirut, Damascus, and Baghdad are sinking further into crisis due to the scarcity of the dollar, institutional chaos, economic disorder, and civil war. Antoine Basbous

+ "These countries, which have fallen under the control of the Iranian 'mullah-archy,' are facing a shortage of dollars, institutional chaos, economic disorder and civil war."

+ "As for Lebanon, its ruling political class – mostly mafia – has been working as one in a systematic plundering of the country under the benevolent gaze of Hezbollah."

+ Antoine Basbous is a political scientist who founded the Observatoire des Pays Arabes (Arab Countries Observatory), a consulting firm specializing in Arab and Islamic issues.

In Benin, electric motorcycles are gaining popularity: Le Monde reports to speed up the transition to a greener economy, the government has eliminated all VAT and customs duties on 100% electric vehicles.

+ "By the end of 2023, we hope to sell 25,000 motorcycles throughout Benin and replace 70% of the Zem' fleet two years later."

+ "Since May 2022, we have been consistently selling an average of 50 motorcycles per day in Benin and have seen similar growth in Togo."

Zimbabwe plans a new city for the rich: Zimbabwe’s leader is seeking investment for a new national capital with luxury homes just down the road from an impoverished and overcrowded Harare. Bloomberg

+ The development in Mount Hampden, 11 miles northeast of Harare, is slated to be the site of the national parliament, headquarters of the central bank, the high and supreme courts, mineral auction centers, a stock exchange, a presidential palace and luxury villas.

+ Mnangagwa’s government is not the only one to dream of building state-of-the-art cities from scratch. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman has a $500 billion plan for a futuristic city called Neom , and Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo is pushing the construction of a new capital known as Nusantara at an estimated cost of $34 billion.

Brazil insurrection probe increases Bolsonaro’s legal jeopardy WP

+ Bolsonaro’s legal problems are legion.

+ The 16 electoral cases against him are being investigated under Brazil’s electoral court. Six criminal cases are being investigated by the Supreme Court.

+ Bolsonaro in an interview with CNN Brasil, suggested he would return to Brazil this month. But one person familiar with his thinking said the ex-president remains concerned of his possible arrest in Brazil.

Biden hones policy themes, campaign plans for re-election effort: President assembles a campaign staff and prepares for fundraising ahead of expected formal announcement in March or April. WSJ

The data-driven strategy behind Democrats’ state-level success in 2022 Eric Levitz

DeSantis advisers prepare for potential presidential run, explore staff options: The private activity is the latest indication the second-term Republican governor is laying a foundation for a potential White House bid. WP

Nikki Haley’s campaign-in-waiting starts its engines: The Dispatch reports two existing Haley groups form the foundation of a possible 2024 bid.

Reuters: 'Trump fatigue' in New Hampshire complicates 2024 White House bid

FT: ‘I’m more angry now’: Trump returns to campaign trail for 2024 race

Trump kicks off 2024 run, says he's 'more angry and more committed' than ever: Le Monde reports former President Donald Trump stopped Saturday in New Hampshire before heading to South Carolina, events in early-voting states marking the first campaign appearances since announcing his run.

Trump hits DeSantis: He's a COVID skeptic phony: Politico reports the former president slams the Florida governor — and potential 2024 rival — as he hits the campaign trail in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Trump’s path to GOP nomination is strewn with obstacles: Still, a wide field could so divide the race that Trump could take the nomination, as he did in 2016, by winning a plurality of primary voters. Dan Balz

WP: Who would work for Rep. Santos? Capitol Hill is watching closely.

Rep. Santos should be avoided unless one plans to write a Hollywood screenplay and take lunches at the Ivy at the Shore.

8 trends to watch in 2023 HBSWK

The AI assist Fred Wilson

More than artificial intelligence: How ChatGPT learns conversation skills from humans: The conversational robot capable of producing impressive texts upon request has had spectacular success. Le Monde

BTS: Smith & Diction’s pitch deck Brand New

Media start-up Semafor plans to buy out Sam Bankman-Fried’s investment: NYT reports Semafor is one of several media companies that received money from Mr. Bankman-Fried or his affiliates before his cryptocurrency company fell apart, and he was charged with crimes.

+ The news start-up Semafor began operating late last year with big ambitions backed by deep-pocketed investors. But the company soon found itself in a pickle: how to handle its biggest outside investment, roughly $10 million, from Sam Bankman-Fried after his crypto company collapsed and the federal government accused him of fraud.

Party’s over at Spotify as celebrity podcast deals fall flat: The Times reports in better days, the company lavished UK staff with impromptu gigs in the office canteen by Coldplay and Kylie Minogue. Now it’s wielding the jobs axe. How Daniel Ek’s empire went so out of tune.

Tears, blunders and chaos: Inside Elon Musk’s Twitter: In the three months since Musk bought Twitter for ￡44bn, thousands have been sacked and the company has nosedived. Here, staff tell of a firm in disarray and an owner whose reputation is also plummeting. Guardian

Virtual Birkin bags on trial in Hermès case testing IP rights: WSJ reports legal analysts say the trial represents an important early test of how a company can exercise its rights against virtual assets it didn’t authorize.

“Like mountain air in the veins”: HG Wells’s 1908 satire, Tono-Bungay, about a fictional health tonic, provides valuable insights into the entrepreneurial mind and spirit. Daniel Akst

+ "Yet we also have a US$4.4 trillion global wellness industry that encompasses all kinds of potions and practices, many of them far-from-proven remedies for discontents that may have little to do with the body."

+ "Wells’s portrait of Edward is surely among the greatest of any entrepreneur in English literature. He is what we might today call a change agent, an absolutely instinctive disrupter."

+ "The real lessons here for business readers are twofold. First, without integrity, you are doomed, and second, success will force you to face the problem of purpose."

The lessons we’re still ‘Learning from Las Vegas’ after 50 years Archinect

+ Top Gun: Maverick won Best Picture at the AARP Movies for Grownups Awards

Cate Blanchett, a maestro in full control of her art: Recognized as one of the best actresses of her generation, at 53 the Australian plays one of the most outstanding roles of her career with 'Tár.' The film could earn the actress a third Oscar, after awards at Venice and the Golden Globes. Le Monde

The Himalayan tragedy that forever changed mountaineering: In 1976, Nanda Devi Unsoeld, the daughter of legendary alpinist Willi Unsoeld, died while climbing the massive Indian peak for which she was named. Decades later, friends, family, and surviving expedition members offer new insights into what went wrong during this controversial adventure, shedding light on an enigmatic young woman who lived without limits. Outside

+ A Himalayan expedition requires thousands of pounds of gear: ropes, ice axes, tents, clothing, food, fuel, cooking stoves, and more—usually far too much for climbers to carry on their own. Then as now, the solution is to hire local porters and pack animals for the trek to base camp.

+ “Devi died 8 Sept Camp IV Acute Mountain Sickness,” he wrote. “Body committed to mountain. From beauty into beauty.”

+ A major theme in the aftermath of the tragedy was a fascination with Devi’s connection to the mountain.

+ “First Fig,” by Edna St. Vincent Millay, which says: “My candle burns at both ends;/ It will not last the night; / But ah, my foes, and oh, my friends, / It gives a lovely light.”

A lunch with Roger Federer helped fuel Mikaela Shiffrin’s record run: After Shiffrin’s disaster at the Beijing Olympics last year, a timely lunch with the tennis great helped reinvigorate her run for Alpine skiing’s wins record. WSJ

NFL’s unparalleled parity was born at a cigarette-burned desk in Philadelphia. WP

+ Once, his father offered him $100,000 to marry a local debutante. Bert Bell took the money, lost it all at the Saratoga racetrack and at breakfast the next morning told his dad, “I ain’t marrying that broad!”

+ Too small to make it as a player, Bell became the worst coach in NFL history. His winning percentage of .179 still stands as the low mark among 196 qualified coaches.

+ Bell’s ownership of the Philadelphia Eagles, co-ownership of the Pittsburgh Steelers and reign as the NFL’s second commissioner from 1946 to 1959 cemented him as a figure critical to the league’s early survival and sustained success.

+ Bell’s vision was for every team in the league to be as competitive as possible. He was fond of saying, “On any given Sunday, any team can beat any other team.” It was a radical idea.

+ Bell pushed the notion that the league was only as strong as its weakest link, and he got other owners to buy in.

+ Religious scholar James P. Carse argued life has at least two kinds of games: finite and infinite. “A finite game is played for the purpose of winning,” he wrote. “An infinite game for the purpose of continuing to play.”

+ “Winning the World Series is a finite game, while growing the popularity of Major League Baseball is an infinite game.”

Marcus Rashford and the goal celebration that is transcending football The Athletic

+ You know how it goes. He runs to one of the corner flags, stands still, perhaps closes his eyes, but always points his index finger to his temple.

+ Rashford wants to keep its full meaning under wraps, preferring to keep people guessing, to the extent that he has even kept his cards close to his chest when asked about the celebration by United’s in-house media team.

+ It relates to Rashford shutting out the external noise that has sometimes followed him during his career, and to finding new focus.

2024 Olympics speed up northeast Paris renewal: The only large-scale facility to be built within Paris premises for the Olympics, an arena, will be in the surroundings of the Porte de La Chapelle, a deprived area of the capital. Le Monde

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal

Caracal produces ITK Daily.

Caracal is a geopolitical business communications firm specializing in global business issues at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics.

Caracal believes that to be a world-class geopolitical business communicator, you need global street smarts coupled with holistic, high-frequency, and high-low communications.

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