ITK Daily | February 5
Happy Sunday.
Here’s today’s ITK Daily.
To be ITK, know this:
China balloon soaring over US deflates hopes for diplomatic thaw?Reuters?
+ The political uproar over a suspected Chinese spy balloon drifting over the United States did not just derail a planned visit to Beijing by the top US diplomat, it also threatens to upset attempts by both countries to steady an increasingly rocky relationship.
+ The reaction in the United States to what appears to be an ill-timed spying mission will have lingering consequences for efforts to stabilize ties – already near historic lows.
+ China has often complained about surveillance of its growing military by US ships and aircraft, though such operations in recent years have been conducted from widely recognized international waters and airspace.
+ Had Blinken gone ahead with the visit, it likely would have opened the administration to more strident criticism that its approach toward was China weak and poor optics in Congress where there is bipartisan support for a hard line on Beijing.
A balloon upended Blinken’s trip to China. That could be a good thing.?Politico reports as one former official puts it, China’s “a little bit on the back foot.”
Global Affairs summons Chinese ambassador after surveillance balloon crosses continental airspace: CBC reports officials at Global Affairs Canada have summoned China's Ambassador to Canada Cong Peiwu for a meeting in response to a high-altitude surveillance balloon detected in North American airspace.
China rushes to cap damage over suspected spy balloon as Blinken delays trip?WP
+ Beijing on Saturday offered a subdued rebuttal to Washington’s decision to delay a high-level visit after a suspected Chinese spy balloon was discovered hovering over the United States, derailing China’s recent efforts to repair its most important bilateral relationship.
+ The Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement Saturday that the presence of a Chinese airship in US airspace was “completely an accident,” and was caused by westerly winds knocking the balloon off course.
+ The ministry also said Beijing and Washington had never officially announced plans for Blinken’s visit.
+ “The information that the US releases [related to this visit] is their business, and we respect that”
+ The trip would help pave the way for a potential visit to the United States by Xi when San Francisco hosts an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders’ meeting in November.
+ The balloon incident, on the eve of such a critical meeting, raises questions over whether it was an accident or a deliberate effort by Beijing to send a message to Washington.
+ In either case, it is a setback for China’s leadership.
+ The delay to Blinken’s trip comes after weeks of efforts by Chinese officials to slow the downward spiral of US-China ties, as Beijing tries to rehabilitate its global image and revive its economy after almost three years of paralyzing anti-covid policies and strident “wolf warrior” diplomacy.
+ Previous visits to China by US officials have also been marred by provocative moves.
+ In 2011, hours before receiving Defense Secretary Robert Gates in Beijing, the People’s Liberation Army staged a test flight of a new stealth fighter jet. When US officials raised the issue with President Hu Jintao, the leader and his retinue appeared caught off guard.
+ Users on Weibo joked that a lantern for this month’s Chinese Lantern Festival had flown too far. “Sorry about that,” one wrote. “Happy lantern festival.”
Balloon incident highlights fragile state of US-China relationship: Recent efforts by Beijing to mend ties with Washington were showing progress, but the balloon’s appearance over the United States illustrates lingering mistrust and growing tensions.?NYT
From China to Big Sky: The balloon that unnerved the White House?Bloomberg
+ The mysterious white object entered US airspace on January 28.
+ The Biden administration knew it had to exercise extreme caution especially in what is a heated political environment ahead of 2024 elections, with Republicans agitating on which party could strike a harder or tougher line on China.
+ The Biden administration initially hoped to keep the balloon news away from the public, until the Billings Gazette published a picture of it.
Duh.
Classified US report highlights foreign power aerial spying with advanced tech: NYT reports before a Chinese spy balloon was discovered in the United States, American officials said a rival power may have used advanced technology to surveil US military sites.
AP: US downs Chinese balloon over ocean, moves to recover debris
NYT: Shoots down Chinese spy balloon off the coast of the Carolinas
Bloomberg: US downs alleged Chinese spying balloon that lingered for days
US downs suspected Chinese spy balloon over the Atlantic coast: WP reports the US military downed the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon Saturday afternoon while it was over the Atlantic coast near the Carolinas. President Biden had earlier?told reporters, “We’re gonna take care of it.”
+ @MarcusReports: The military jets using the call sign “FRANK” is significant. Frank Luke Jr. was an American fighter ace in World War I better known as the “Arizona Balloon Buster.” He is credited with shooting down 14 German surveillance balloons?
+ @JenGriffinFNC: Senior US military official says 1 air to air missile fired by F22 at 58,000 feet (an A9X missile) brought down China spy balloon. The balloon was at 60-65,000 feet when shot.
What I am thinking today:?
I don't think Xi Jinping approved this, and I think this is a PLA inside hatchet job.
This spy balloon incident reminds me a lot of when Defense Secretary Robert Gates visited China in 2011, and the PLA revealed a new stealth jet.
"China conducted the first test flight of its stealth fighter just hours before US Defense Secretary Robert Gates sat down with President Hu Jintao here to mend frayed relations, undermining the meeting and prompting questions over whether China's civilian leadership is fully in control of the increasingly powerful armed forces."
Here's the story:?China shows its growing might: Stealth jet upstages Gates, Hu.?WSJ
Detente still makes sense for US and China: Spy balloons aside, both sides would benefit from even a limited, temporary pause in hostilities.?Bloomberg - Editorial
The Sino-American rivalry needs guardrails to contain small incidents: With luck, the balloon affair will not escalate, but something like it could.?Economist
+ A visit to Beijing by Antony Blinken, America’s secretary of state, planned for February 5th and 6th, was meant to consolidate progress. Then a Chinese balloon floated over America.
Reuters: CIA chief warns against underestimating Xi's ambitions toward Taiwan
+ Burns said that the United States knew ‘as a matter of intelligence’ that Xi had ordered his military to be ready to conduct an invasion of self-governed Taiwan by 2027.
For Team Biden, Burns is the MVP.
Why Marcos is inviting the US military back to the Philippines?Bloomberg
+ The two allies have paved the way for greater American presence in the Asia-Pacific region, spurred by persistent tensions with China over Taiwan and the South China Sea.
In Kyiv, EU leaders promise new sanctions and welcome Ukraine's 'progress' toward membership: Le Monde reports Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President Charles Michel met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the country's capital on Friday.
+ The US announced that it would allow the first transfer of a Russian oligarch's confiscated funds to Ukraine.
When it comes to building its own defense, Europe has blinked: Despite expectations that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would force Europe to bolster its military strength, it has instead reinforced dependency on US leadership, intelligence, and might.?NYT
+ Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the greatest challenge to European security since the end of the Cold War, but the Europeans have missed the opportunity to step up their own defense, diplomats and experts say. Instead, the war has reinforced Europe’s military dependence on the United States.
+ It is impossible to have a real European defense without a coherent European foreign policy.
The German spy at the heart of the biggest scandal in years?SMH
+ Linke is currently held in a German prison on suspicion of treason. He faces between five years and a life sentence over accusations he sold documents to the FSB, Russia’s intelligence agency, that could have given Vladimir Putin an advantage on the battlefield.
+ After a career serving in the German army, Linke switched to the Bundesnachrichtendienst foreign intelligence agency (BND), where he rose up the ranks of its signal unit, the department that is tasked with snooping on foreign countries’ communications.
+ “That is a position that would have been really interesting to the Russians as they could have used the background information he gleaned on BND agents to use against them. The rank he had at his age meant that he was on course to take on one of the top four jobs inside the agency before he retired.”
France, India, UAE agree on climate cooperation:?DW reports the three countries agreed on a trilateral initiative to embark on energy projects. The initiative aims to take advantage of India's presidency of the G20 and the UAE's hosting of COP28.?
Thailand became the Asian Amsterdam last year, but it may not last?SMH
Sri Lanka marks 75 years of independence amid bankruptcy: DW reports many citizens were in a less-than-celebratory mood as Sri Lanka marked 75 years of independence. Buddhist and Christian religious leaders said they would boycott celebrations in the capital Colombo.
Pope tells South Sudanese leaders that the path to peace 'can no longer be postponed': During his February 3 meeting with the country's president and vice presidents in Juba, Pope Francis did not hide his irritation at the current stalemate in the peace process.?Le Monde
Is Africa the future of Catholicism (and will the next Pope be African)??Pope Francis will visit the Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan from January 31 to February 5 in his third visit to Sub-Saharan Africa.?Le Monde
+ According to figures released by the Vatican in October last year covering the year 2021, Africa has 256 million Catholics, representing about 18% of the continent's population. That is 5.2 million more than in 2020.
+ African theology has momentum. Several African Catholic universities are experiencing significant growth, such as in Cameroon, the DRC, Kenya and Nigeria.
+ A large number of African theologians also represent a recognized trend, known as "inculturation," meaning the dialogue between faith and local culture.
+ Africa has about 30 cardinals today, 16 of whom are the right age to elect a future pope (under 80 years old).
+ Today, there are between 400 and 500 million Muslims in Africa including about 250 million south of the Sahara.
+ The number of Muslims, as well as that of Christians, grew by more than 20 times over the course of the 20th century and the two great monotheistic religions seem to be experiencing a similar momentum whatever the different currents.
+ Catholics are regularly targeted by jihadist movements. Almost every week, churches are attacked and priests and nuns are killed or kidnapped.
Biden unveiled $500 million for Philly lead pipe replacement as he aims to show how his infrastructure bill has worked: Philadelphia Inquirer reports President Joe Biden's stop in Philadelphia aimed to highlight his bipartisan infrastructure law and signals how he and fellow Democrats plan to approach the run-up to the 2024 election.
Democrats, seeing a weaker Trump, are falling in line behind Biden: Concerns about the president’s age are being overcome by enthusiasm about his record so far, optimism about the GOP field — and the absence of better options.?NYT
+ As Democratic National Committee members gather in Philadelphia for their winter meeting this week, nearly all have come to the same conclusion: It’s Biden or bust.
+ “Let me ask you a simple question: Are you with me?” Biden asked the crowd of DNC members on Friday night, to boisterous cheers.
+ Still, with the election 641 days away, much remains uncertain. The shape of the Republican field remains unclear, as does the country’s economic forecast.
+ Biden’s age is one reason many Democrats are hoping that Trump, who at 76 is just four years younger, wins the GOP nomination.
Top Biden aides and writers to gather at Camp David to work on State of the Union address?CBS
Biden’s State of the Union address to take aim at Silicon Valley: As critical legislation has stalled in Congress, the president plans to call on Republicans and Democrats to work together to regulate the industry.?WP
How to turn a boring speech into something Americans will actually want to watch?Josh Tyrangiel
+ Josh Tyrangiel is a journalist and television producer whose work has won 11 Emmys.
Democrats make South Carolina first presidential primary voting state: NBC reports the DNC officially moved the state ahead of Iowa and New Hampshire for their 2024 primary, following President Biden's recommendation.
+ @aseitzwald: NEWS: The DNC just officially approved by voice vote the revamped primary calendar for 2024, which moves SC and NV to the front and dethrones IA.
+ @aaronlarnavarro: The DNC has officially passed the new primary window calendar for 2024 (SC first, NH/NV, GA, MI). Some open questions left about NH and GA, but the full committee passed it emphatically
+ @ec_schneider: NEWS - DNC overwhelmingly approves the new calendar line up on an overwhelming voice vote. Smattering of 'nah' votes. And that's that. (NH/GA gets kicked to June.)
+ @CatherineKimNY: The new calendar puts South Carolina first on Feb. 3, 2024, followed by New Hampshire and Nevada on Feb. 6, then Georgia on Feb. 13, and Michigan on Feb. 27.
Forget Trump, Democrats are preparing ways to beat a DeSantis campaign: Age and experience could be DeSantis strengths with Biden voters.?Bloomberg
+ “Right off the bat, you’ve got such a contrast on age. It’s one thing for Biden to stand side by side with Trump, because Trump’s not actually that young. The age difference between Biden and DeSantis is very noticeable”
+ DeSantis is a near daily fixture in Democratic National Committee attack emails, slamming his positions and policy moves.
+ Long-time GOP operative and former executive director the Republican Governors Association, Phil Cox, is expected to help run the DeSantis campaign.
+ Part of the DeSantis strategy is to win over as many GOP donors as possible and dominate the race before he formally announces.
+ The DNC recently hired a Tallahassee-based staffer to respond to DeSantis in real time.
+ Biden is likely to announce his presidential bid following the State of the Union address on Feb. 7, with much of his political strategy coming from top White House advisers including Anita Dunn, Jen O’Malley Dillon, and Mike Donilon. The DNC will run most of the organizing in states.
Trump needs a confrontation. His GOP rivals don’t have to give him one.?Ross Douthat
+ For Republicans who might prefer to have Trump broken than to simply have him fade, it’s a reminder of the post-2016 limits on their power. They probably can’t break him; he’d have to break himself.
Is Trump way up or way down??The polls are surprisingly divided, but higher-quality surveys point to an answer.?Nate Cohn
+ In national surveys since last November’s midterm election, different pollsters have shown him with anywhere between 25 percent and 55 percent of the vote in a multicandidate field.
+ Whether Trump is at 25 percent or 55 percent is no small matter. Believe it or not, early polling is fairly predictive of the eventual outcome in presidential primaries.
+ We probably won’t be sure until there’s a large enough wave of rigorous national polls — think ABC/Post, Times/Siena (sorry, won’t be soon) — to calibrate our expectations for the race.
+ In the interim, Trump is stuck in the low-to-mid 30s nationwide represents a best guess.
Nikki Haley is taking on Trump 2024 (or running for VP)?Ed Kilgore
+ Haley’s ultimate problem as a presidential candidate is that she’s from a crucial early primary state. If she loses South Carolina, her candidacy will be dead as a mackerel.
+ Haley’s other big problem will be the perception that she’s really running for vice-president.
+ Haley is only 51.?
House GOP embraces mainstream media after years of bashing ‘fake news’: Since taking over the majority, House Republicans are back on the airwaves after years of staying away.?WP
+ Awakening from a traditional media hibernation, House Republicans have begun to blitz the airwaves they previously shunned with brushoffs about the “lamestream media.”
+ This pivot for House Republicans comes after a prolonged standoff with the more-traditional media outlets that came under attack during, and after, Donald Trump’s grievance-driven presidency.
+ McCarthy has embodied this shift in strategy.
Dianne Feinstein's extremely awkward, very uncomfortable exit from the political stage: Politico reports Democrats in her home state are moving on even as she isn’t.
+ Mitch Daniels is the new namesake of Purdue’s business school - the Mitchell E. Daniels, Jr. School of Business
DC's skyline is low — by law. The mayor wants to reshape it.?The prospect of amending the Height Act has taken on new urgency as city officials seek to build consensus around a vision for reinventing an emptier downtown.?WP
+ The 1910 Height of Buildings Act limits buildings from rising more than 130 feet on the city’s widest boulevards.
+ Yet opponents contend that amending the Height Act is not necessary to revive downtown and that maintaining the current limit is essential for protecting the city’s unique aesthetic and clear views of its monuments.
+ “The bottom line is that Washington, DC, is among the few distinct world capital cities with a distinctive urban design that includes height limitations. I’m thinking of Paris, for example. It’s a distinguishing characteristic, and it makes for a beautiful city.”
+ Any change to the Height Act would require congressional approval.
Lufthansa + Air France-KLM?are in talks to buy bankrupt UK airline Flybe, the Telegraph reported.
Nike and Tiffany & Co: Do we need yet another fashion crossover??SMH
+ The social media response has been, well, lukewarm.
+ Collaborations are often a low-risk undertaking for the companies involved.?
+ “This strategy taps into the highly engaged and culturally influential communities to drive both sales and hype.”
+ The purpose of collaborations is about brand awareness, aka marketing, aka attention, aka “buzz.”
TikTok’s secret menus are driving food-service workers nuts?WP
+ “Order from the menu. We are not making anything you saw on TikTok!!”
BMW?is negotiating a ￡75 million funding deal with the UK government to guarantee the production of electric Minis at its Oxfordshire plant, Sky News reported.
Bloomberg: SpaceX Awarded Shared NASA Contract Worth Up to $100 Million
GM’s driverless car snafus jeopardize San Francisco expansion: The city’s transit authority opposes Cruise taking its service city-wide and running around the clock.?Bloomberg
+ In its push to get to $1 billion in robotaxi revenue by 2025 and as much as $50 billion by 2030, General Motors-owned Cruise LLC is working to expand its paid service to all of San Francisco and run it 24 hours a day.
+ GM Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra has a lot riding on Cruise.
+ The automaker has downsized dramatically since she took over the top job nine years ago, pulling out of Europe and shutting down operations in countries including India, Australia and South Africa.
+ These cars largely have delivered from the safety record perspective. Now, they need to learn to drive safety without causing traffic jams.
How in just 8 weeks ChatGPT kick-started a revolution that won’t fizzle out?The Times
Sex Pistols star loses Eurovision bid to represent Ireland: DW reports former Sex Pistols frontman John Lydon, better known as Johnny Rotten, failed in his bid to represent Ireland. He lost out to the band Wild Youth with their song "We Are One."
+ @chbooksdc: An employee just asked if Tribe Called Quest was a one-hit wonder. Started to answer but was simpler just to fire them.
'There is an urgent need to examine the archaeology of World War II sites': For archaeologist Vincent Carpentier, the excavation of World War II sites is a major contribution to history, and the material evidence provides a particularly effective way of combating denialist factions.?Le Monde
+ "This work is also an extremely effective way of fighting against all the denialist movements that poison history: When we have concrete relics, plans with precise dimensions and materials, and when all this can be compared with photographs, testimonies and receipts, then we provide material evidence that cannot be contested."
+ " I think that this is archaeology's great contribution to history."
+ "Let's take the opportunity of finding these elements in the ground, while they are still preserved, so we can fill in the gaps, especially in such a sensitive field."
As energy costs bite, museums rethink a conservation credo: Tight climate controls have become the norm to protect artworks and artifacts. But as heating and electricity prices soar, Europe’s museums administrators are wondering whether the rules need to be so strict.?NYT
+ The Rijksmuseum has relaxed temperature and humidity standards in galleries where it owns the works on display. But in rooms where loan items are on display, the old, strict standards still apply.
+ Since the first public museums were founded in the 18th century, one of their main roles has been to protect the artworks and artifacts they display.?
+ Most Western museums have also installed expensive and complex climate control systems to help preserve the works in their care. Those energy-guzzling technologies, including climate monitors, air conditioning units and dehumidifiers, normally whir away unnoticed, 24 hours a day.
+ The Guggenheim Bilbao predicts it will save about $21,800 a month, since it decided to allow a slightly wider range of temperatures and humidity levels.
+ The Prussian Cultural Heritage Foundation, the organization that runs many of Berlin’s major museums, announced a goal to become carbon neutral by 2035.
Golf's existential crisis is coming to Netflix: When it greenlit its new golf series Full Swing, Netflix was hoping to build something like the next Drive to Survive—then a controversial new Saudi league took aim at the PGA Tour and the fight for the soul of the game commenced. It’s a good thing cameras were rolling.?GQ
Fly Eagles Fly: Jill Biden is going to the Super Bowl.
Ford returns to the most prestigious motorsport globally: Formula 1?Detroit Free Press
+ Ford, which is currently led by CEO Jim Farley, a race car driver, is returning to Formula 1 after a 22-year absence.
+ Red Bull Racing and Ford will develop together the powertrain that will be part of new technical regulations, including fully sustainable fuels, through at least 2030.
+ Red Bull Ford Powertrains will provide the power units for both the Oracle Red Bull Racing and Scuderia AlphaTauri teams from 2026 to 2030.
+ Ford will provide technical expertise, including battery cell and electric motor technology, power unit control software and analytics.
+ Ford remains the third most successful engine manufacturer in F1 history with a total of 174 wins.
+ Ferrari and Mercedes are the only automakers with a better record.
LeBron James keeps the world watching: The Los Angeles Lakers star has embraced the often harsh spotlight of celebrity to further his career and personal goals. But he said it can be “challenging at times.”?NYT
+ “Hopefully I made an impact enough so people appreciate what I did, and still appreciate what I did off the floor as well, even when I’m done. But I don’t live for that. I live for my family, for my friends and my community that needs that voice.”
+ James likes to say that he always keeps “the main thing the main thing” — meaning that no matter what else is happening in his life, he prioritizes basketball.
+ He led his teams to the NBA finals in eight consecutive years and won championships with three different franchises.
+ He’s estimated to be worth more than $1 billion.
Rugby: Scotland v England: The Calcutta Cup is coming back to Scotland.?
Paris 2024 Olympics: Organizers promise 'huge popular festival' for Olympic flame's arrival in Marseille: Riffing on the city's Greek roots, the Organizing Committee has come up with a symbolic and spectacular welcoming ceremony, presented on Friday, February 3.?Le Monde
+ This relay will cross 60 departments to reach the capital, symbolically, on July 14, 2024.
Japan baseball team takes grassroots swing at South America: Kochi Fighting Dogs offer clinics, a pathway for a new generation of players abroad.?Nikkei
+?The Kochi Fighting Dogs, a Japanese independent league baseball team, is spreading its knowledge of the sport in South American countries as part of a bid to deepen connections across the Pacific.
+ Last month, the Fighting Dogs traveled to Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina to hold baseball clinics, the third such delegation following similar events in 2018 and 2020.
+ The Fighting Dogs anticipate recruiting South American players looking for a stepping stone to playing baseball at a higher level.
The queen of Everest trains while working at Whole Foods: Lhakpa Sherpa has climbed Mount Everest 10 times, the most ascents ever by a woman. She has no plans of slowing down.?NYT
+ “I’ve lost many of my heroes, many of my best friends”
+ “I want to teach them climbing skills and show them that all girls can climb mountains”
NFL owners have a problem hiring coaches: They’re lousy at it?Sally Jenkins
+ What other billion-dollar business conducts management-leader searches in this way? Almost none, according to Jed Hughes of executive search firm Korn Ferry.
+ “CEOs and board members do things in a precise, orderly manner. Normally, people in sports don’t follow a prescribed way.”?
+ High churn rate and rare organic talent development: These are the signatures of NFL owners in hiring.
+ A central fact seems to totally elude most owners: The player pool is not just the labor pool.
+ In truth, owners can’t really “know” how any of their favorite son candidates will perform, for the simple reason that real leadership emerges only in action, under pressure and in specific emergencies, and in the face of resistance.?
+ Yet owners blather on with hazy, inexact, elusive terms about finding a coach with “vision,” squawking indistinctly as they deflect examination of their utter hackishness.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc?
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal produces ITK Daily.
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