ITK Daily | February 19
Happy Sunday.
Here’s today’s ITK Daily.
To be ITK, know this:
+ @jimsciutto: Just a monumental tragedy: The death toll across Turkey and Syria following the catastrophic earthquake on February 6th climbed to at least 46,483 on Saturday.
The post-Cold War era is gone. A new arms race has arrived: Countries around the world are drawing lessons from Europe’s first high-intensity war since 1945, reassessing everything from ammunition stocks to supply lines.?Bloomberg
+ Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, the government in neighboring Poland passed a law to more than double the size of its military, and went shopping for weapons.
+ “This is the story of the end of the post-Cold War era, and it ended on February 24, 2022,” said Francois Heisbourg, a veteran French defense analyst and former government adviser, describing a nascent move away from the extreme depletion and restructuring of land forces that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
+ “The Russians showed how devastating it can be to mismanage logistics,” said Michele Flournoy, a former US Undersecretary of Defense for Policy who chairs the Center for a New American Security in Washington. “It cuts both ways for a Taiwan scenario: 200 miles of ocean is hard for China, but it’s also hard for Taiwan to resupply.”
+ It’s harder to understand any assessments China is making, because those debates tend to be closely held by the military and would involve deconstructing the battlefield failures of Russia, an economic and strategic partner, in public.
+ India has also ordered more shoulder-held anti-aircraft missiles, known as MANPADS, for use at the border with China.
+ India is looking to partner more with the US and France in particular to buy weapons, the officials said. It has also earmarked two thirds of the defense procurement budget for domestic producers — often in joint ventures with foreign arms makers — up 7 percentage points from the 2022-2023 fiscal year.?
Inside Zelensky’s Ukraine war bunker: No phones, no light, no sleep: The Times political editor goes to the heart of Kyiv’s government machine to witness how a country is kept running after a year under attack.?The Times
+ The most striking thing upon entering the Bankova — Ukraine’s equivalent of Downing Street — is how dark it is inside. Every curtain is closed to protect against bomb blasts and the lights are off to reduce the threat of the building being targeted by air attacks or snipers.
+ I am told by many of those that I met during my visit that the most difficult thing about life at war is the inability to plan for the future.
+ “I think it will go on for long time . . . it’s very hard to defeat the enemy. Their manpower and armoury and weapons are far higher than ours. The only way to win is with Western technologies, and [our] motivation.”
+ Half of state revenues now come from foreign aid, with a significant percentage of the rest dependent on its giant agricultural industry.
+ Ukraine, known as the breadbasket of Europe, normally contributes 15 percent of global corn, 10 percent of the world’s wheat, 15 percent of barley and nearly half its sunflower oil.
+ “The farmers have to sell their grain at an extremely low price, because logistics are extremely expensive for everything.” Before the war “logistics expenses from field to port was about $30. At the moment it is at least $100.”
+ Hopes are the supply of food can be used as a diplomatic tool to counter Russia’s influence across Africa.
+ Nineteen African countries abstained from a UN resolution condemning Moscow’s annexation of four regions of Ukraine in October, while 26 voted in favor.
+ “It’s possible to end this war in this year. It’s absolutely not necessary to have a second anniversary. Give us everything which we need to win.”
‘Not one inch’: Unpicking Putin’s deadly obsession with the details of history: Russia’s justification for the invasion of Ukraine is based on a wilful misreading of agreements made with the west — and offers warnings for the future.?FT
+ As a professor, I teach how and why history matters. Yet, over the course of the past year, even I was unprepared for just how much it mattered.
+ Anger at Kyiv is the foundation of Putin’s bitterness. Resting precariously on that foundation is a haphazard and dangerous pile of accessory grievances, including an obsession with NATO enlargement in its smallest historical details.?
One year on, Putin must wish he'd read his Herodotus: What the war in Ukraine has proven is that all of us, starting with the Russian president, have been arrogantly wrong about almost everything.?Andreas Kluth
+ A big lesson all of us — but especially people in power — should learn from Vladimir Putin’s attack on Ukraine one year ago has to do with intellectual humility, and the disastrous consequences of its absence.?
+ That’s because not only the Russian president but almost everybody has been wrong, wrong, wrong about almost everything.
+ Putin was just as sure that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy would either be eliminated within hours of the attack, or would take his family and flee abroad. Instead, Zelenskiy not only stood his ground but became one of the most inspirational leaders in history.?
+ Putin was also wrong about the West. From his previous aggressions — against Georgia in 2008, or Crimea and Donbas since 2014 — he concluded that NATO and the European Union would never coalesce to stare him down.
+ Wrong on all counts. NATO — always a fractious alliance — has rarely been as united as it is today, and is poised to grow by another two members, Finland and Sweden, in direct response to Putin’s invasion.
+ One of the first thinkers to describe a historical figure like Putin was Herodotus, with his account of the Lydian king Croesus, who ruled and failed in the sixth century BCE.
+ Croesus was famous for two things. The first was his vast wealth in gold and other glittery things (hence the phrase “rich as Croesus”) — the ancient equivalent of Putin’s hydrocarbons. The second was his hubris.
+ Croesus’s problem, like Putin’s, was that he lacked intellectual humility. This trait doesn’t necessarily have much to do with modesty as such. It’s instead defined as an “awareness of the limits of one’s knowledge” and of the “limitations of one’s viewpoint” — or, if you prefer, an appreciation of one’s own fallibility.
+ Such intellectual hubris is often potentiated by “groupthink.”
+ The first lesson from history, it’s often said, is that we never learn the lessons of history. Each generation brings forth new characters Herodotus would recognize. But we’d be foolish to pass on the opportunity for reflection offered by this tragic anniversary.?
+ Putin and Xi remind us that autocracies are at particular risk of intellectual hubris.
+ Open societies, by contrast, at least have the advantage of intellectual heterogeneity.
US formally accuses Russia of crimes against humanity in Ukraine, Harris says: The vice president told the Munich Security Conference that the US would hold guilty Russians and ‘their superiors’ accountable.?Politico
+ The United States has determined that Russia is committing crimes against humanity in Ukraine, Vice President Kamala Harris announced Saturday, the latest salvo in the West’s effort to hold Moscow accountable for its wartime atrocities.?
+ The declaration is among the most forceful yet from a Western power as allies grapple with how to punish Russians responsible for violations.
+ And it escalates the judicial side of America’s support for Ukraine, which has long said Russia was guilty of these crimes and that Russian President Vladimir Putin was ultimately responsible.
+ “In contrast with genocide, crimes against humanity do not need to target a specific group,” according to the United Nations. “Instead, the victim of the attack can be any civilian population, regardless of its affiliation or identity. Another important distinction is that in the case of crimes against humanity, it is not necessary to prove that there is an overall specific intent.”
+ Last November, human rights organization Amnesty International said Russia was “likely” committing crimes against humanity, citing instances of the forceful transfer and deportation of people from Ukraine.
With this declaration, Team Biden has decided to send Russia into the wilderness for at least a generation.
Bloomberg: Sunak says NATO should make Ukraine security pledge by July
Inside the stunning growth of Russia’s Wagner Group: Exclusive US diplomatic cables and internal documents detail the expansion of the paramilitary force and global network led by a top Putin ally.?Politico
+ American and European allies are mobilizing to thwart the rapid expansion of the Russian paramilitary group known as Wagner, run by a Putin-affiliated oligarch, as it captures key cities for Moscow in Ukraine and spreads its influence to Africa and other corners of the world.
+ With tens of thousands of fighters, many of them now battlefield-trained, the Wagner Group’s emergence as a rogue military threat could become a serious global challenge in years to come, US and European officials said.
+ Diplomats from the US, Europe and Africa have met behind closed doors in capitals across the world, including Bangui, Kigali, Brussels, Washington, Kyiv, London and Lisbon, to discuss ways to limit Wagner’s footprint.?
+ “Wagner is this relatively unique arm of the Kremlin. Putin uses him as one of his tools in Africa and around the world. So, there are concerns in our Africa policy. But for us, this is also a problem about how Russia blurs the line between covert action and military action and political influence.”
+ “The thing to understand about Yevgeny Prigozhin is that his empire of influence is large but it’s not entirely of his own making. It’s multi-faceted, there are troll farms, there is the Wagner Group, there are shell companies, there are movie productions. This is not your standard military general.”
+ In the last five years, Wagner has expanded its operations to politically turbulent countries in Africa, signing contracts with governments to help quell resistance and provide security to high-level officials.?
+ “A hallmark of Russian disinformation campaigns is that they are very opportunistic. If something happens that could in some way be reframed to benefit them, they will do it. It’s right out of their playbook.”
+ “Wagner is a cancer. It doesn’t just sit in one country. It’s something that spreads to those adjacent countries and then all of a sudden you have a much bigger problem to worry about.”
WP: Over 30,000 Wagner Group fighters killed or injured in Ukraine, US says
The West uses Munich conference to present show of unity against Russia: Nearly a year after the start of the Russian invasion, the allies gathered at the security conference in Munich to once again assure Kyiv of their support. Emmanuel Macron stressed Moscow's 'failure.'?Le Monde
+ A year ago, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, attended the conference in person, in civilian clothes, at a time when, despite American and British intelligence, no one in Munich wanted to believe that Russia was about to invade Ukraine.
+ Faced with a Russian president who is betting on a long war, France and Germany also wanted to make it known on Friday that they are preparing for such a scenario.
+ A new resolution condemning the Russian-initiated war is scheduled for debate in the UN on February 23, on the eve of the first anniversary of the conflict, and the outcome of the vote is eagerly awaited.
+ Any increase in the number of abstentions and dissenters will be interpreted as a victory for Russia.?
+ It is also there, far, sometimes very far from its borders, that Europe's future is at stake.
How McKinsey steers the Munich Security Conference: The US-based consultancy has taken control of the event’s agenda, shaping its program and the guest list for years.?Politico
+ McKinsey has quietly influenced the agenda of the conference, according to current and former employees and internal documents viewed by Politico, steering everything from the focus of its marquee report to the event’s program, to the guest lists.?
+ While the non-profit MSC benefits from the convening muscle of the most powerful management consultancy in the world (free of charge) and its army of experts, McKinsey gets to shape the agenda of one of the premier venues for global elites, giving it the opportunity to push narratives that serve the firm’s client base, be they in defense, the energy sector or government, people close the conference say.?
+ The MSC is a state-sponsored event held under the aegis of the German government. Without the close involvement of the state, which aside from financial support also helps recruit the global leaders who lend the conference its cachet, the MSC would cease to exist.
+ McKinsey described its association with the MSC, which refers to the firm as a “knowledge partner,” as that of a provider of “publicly-available facts and data” and graphics, adding in a statement that it does not undertake new research or analysis for the MSC security report.
+ With annual revenue of more than €12 million and about 100 sponsors (including McKinsey), the MSC is well on its way to becoming what a decade ago its advisory council feared: a copy of Davos.
US reaction to balloon ‘absurd and hysterical,’ says top Chinese diplomat: The Guardian reports Wang Yi also says China is preparing to outline its position on the Russian war against Ukraine.
White House to hold secret talks with Taiwan officials in Washington: Dialogue is part of ‘special channel’ of diplomacy as US-China relations worsen over spy balloon drama.?FT
+ The White House will next week hold secret talks with Taiwan’s foreign minister Joseph Wu and national security adviser Wellington Koo as part of a special diplomatic dialogue intended to remain private to avoid sparking an angry reaction from China.
+ Next week’s meeting will be held at the Virginia headquarters of the American Institute in Taiwan.
+ Laura Rosenberger, the top National Security Council official for China, is preparing to leave her White House position to become the head of AIT in the US, according to four people familiar with the situation.
Bloomberg: Silicon Valley’s Rep. Ro Khanna leads Congressional trip to Taiwan
AP: North Korea fires missile as US, S. Korea prepare for drills
How Macron wants Paris to steal London’s tech crown: President Macron is backing French start-ups. Does the UK need to up its game.?The Times
+ Check out Station F - a tech campus that was converted from an old railway depot - here .
+ The Station F start-up campus, the brainchild of telecoms tycoon Xavier Niel, symbolizes the fire that was lit under Paris’s tech scene when Emmanuel Macron took office in May 2017.?
+ Paris has traditionally lagged London, which remains Europe’s tech hub thanks to its access to financing. But as Macron throws billions of euros at the French tech sector, is London at risk of losing its crown?
+ In September 2019, Macron set France the target of having 25 “unicorns” — start-ups valued at more than $1 billion — by 2025.?
+ n January 2022 Macron declared that the country had hit the target three years early and now wanted to create 100 by 2030. French unicorns include the car-sharing app BlaBlaCar.
+ La French Tech, a government agency for promoting the industry, similar to the UK’s Tech Nation.
The UK’s political fever dreams may finally be over: Scotland, Corbyn, and Northern Ireland may signal less volatile days ahead.?Martin Ivens
+ A fever has raged through UK politics for seven debilitating years since the Brexit vote.?
+ During this time, every radical, wrong-headed cure for the country’s ills has been tried and found wanting. Last week saw three major political developments that indicate the fever may finally have burnt itself out.
+ UK politics will remain fraught: Divides will still be wide on issues from the economy to culture wars.
+ But at least the heat may be cooling by a couple of degrees, enough to bring the arts of compromise and gradualism back to the table.?
+ The UK may finally come out from under the so-called Chinese curse. Living in less interesting times once more will give everyone a break.
+ @KeejayOV3: Latest odds on who will be the next First Minister with @StarSports_Bet:
Angus Robertson: 11/8
Kate Forbes: 13/8
Humza Yousaf: 7/1?
Ash Regan: 8/1
领英推荐
Mairi McAllan: 9/1
Keith Brown: 10/1
Ben Macpherson: 16/1
He’s energized Nigeria’s young voters. Will they turn out for him??The race is wide open in the presidential election in Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation and a struggling economic powerhouse. Youth looking to evict the old guard are cheering on Peter Obi, a surprise third-party candidate.?NYT
+ General elections will be held in Nigeria on February 25, 2023, to elect the President and Vice President and members of the Senate and House of Representatives.
+ For eight years, the citizens of Africa’s most populous nation — 70 percent of them under the age of 30 — have been governed by Muhammadu Buhari, who previously ruled the country as a military dictator, in the 1980s, long before most of them were even born.
Bloomberg: Five million carnival goers descend on Rio as Brazil seeks comeback
Presidential candidates' very first decision?Tevi Troy
+ Democratic campaign guru Howard Wolfson believes that “you have to move early because the process starts early, and if you are not announcing in the early time, you are going to lose out.”
+ Wolfson has a point: Early entrants can gain points by campaigning hard in the early primary states, honing their messages, and being vetted early by the media.?
+ Another advantage to the early strategy is scaring off competitors, especially if one catches fire rhetorically or in the polls.
+ Even if one does not enter early, it is necessary to “plan early,” according to Stephen J. Wayne, author of The Road to the White House 2020. As Wayne wrote, early planning is essential because “creating an organization, devising a strategy, and raising the amount of money necessary to conduct a broad-based campaign all takes time.”
+ According to CNN senior political commentator and GOP campaign veteran Scott Jennings. "If you currently hold a position or platform that allows for you to get attention and earned media (i.e., DeSantis or Biden), you can afford to wait. If you are just bored and retired, you probably need the vehicle to get some attention early.”
+?Consultants and pollsters can suggest strategies, but for presidential aspirants, “they’ll never know unless they launch a campaign.”
Inside the collapse of the Trump-DeSantis 'alliance of convenience': Behind an apparent close alliance, the two Republicans have racked up years of mutual suspicions fueling a 2024 grudge match.?WP
+ Trump and DeSantis had a relationship based on mutual advantage rather than genuine closeness — “an alliance of convenience,” in the words of one person who knows both men.
+ DeSantis was skeptical of Trump before he won the presidency and made fun of Trump on multiple occasions, according to recordings obtained by The Washington Post and news reports from the time.
+ If Trump had created the world, DeSantis quipped in one recorded speech, “He’d have done it in half the time at half the cost, and he would have had Satan pay for it.”
+ Trump has suggested publicly that DeSantis was crying and begging for the nod — “tears coming down from his eyes,” he recently told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt.?
+ On Trump’s political team, DeSantis is widely seen as the biggest threat. Trump advisers have begun to compile opposition research on DeSantis, and several people close to Trump said he wants to make DeSantis think about whether he wants to get into the race.
+ They plan to paint him as aloof and cold.
+ Trump has watched clips of DeSantis debating, particularly against Democrat Charlie Crist last fall, and has given advisers dim reviews of his skills onstage.
+ A series of polls that show DeSantis is Trump’s only competitive rival.
+ Trump advisers say he wants to make it painful for DeSantis to enter the race — and he has repeatedly taken warning swipes.
+ At some point after last August, the famous ad from DeSantis’ 2018 campaign — the one showing him teaching his children to “build the wall” and reading “The Art of the Deal” — disappeared from the governor’s YouTube page.
DeSantis is trying to turn Trump’s biggest win into a liability: The Florida governor is seizing on distrust among GOP voters over COVID shots ahead of a widely expected presidential run.?Bloomberg
+ Much of DeSantis’s rise to national prominence has been built on his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Biden team faces challenges to fill top job with a complicated set of duties: The decision-making power is likely to remain in the White House.?NBC News
+ Finding a campaign manager for President Joe Biden’s re-election remains a problem for his top aides, according to multiple sources familiar with the discussions, underscoring the difficulty of finding someone who can run the operations while the decision-making power remains in the White House.??
+ “You can’t build your field campaign in Wisconsin or Michigan from the White House. So I think it’s a very important job. But I think appropriately the campaign is going to seek a manager who is going to understand that profile.”
+ Inside the White House, senior adviser Anita Dunn and deputy chief of staff Jen O’Malley Dillon will play a large role, as well as counselors Steve Ricchetti and Mike Donilon.?
+ Recently departed White House chief of staff Ron Klain also has already made clear he intends to be involved with a Biden re-election campaign on the outside, as was the case four years ago.
+ Biden intends to continue to rely on the Democratic National Committee as well. The DNC is currently hiring staff — some on a temporary basis and others who may remain longer term — to help build the initial infrastructure needed to launch the campaign.
Momentum builds in Congress to crack down on TikTok: NBC News reports lawmakers from both parties have increased their scrutiny of the app, with some backing a national ban to counter China as others probe its effects on young people.
The inconvenient truth about electric vehicles: The experience of owning, charging, and driving an electric vehicle makes the rising inequality in America more visible in new and subtle ways.?Andrew Moseman
+ New EV drivers will encounter zoomy torque, lower maintenance costs, and the joy of leaving on the air-conditioning for your dog while you run into the store. They will cope with a new tension in the shoulders as the battery level keeps on falling while the next plug remains miles down the road.
+ Fortunately, we have found the cure for range anxiety. It’s money.
This startup can 3D print a battery into any shape you want: Its solid-state batteries may be the holy grail of the industry.?FC
AI becomes Silicon Valley’s next buzzy bandwagon as crypto boom fizzles: Trend-hoppers have moved from Web3 and blockchain to artificial intelligence. ‘The Venn diagram is a circle.’?Christopher Mims
WP: After AI chatbot goes a bit loopy, Microsoft tightens its leash
Buttons are bougie now: Everyone is tired of touch screens.?Drew Millard
A twisted tale of celebrity promotion, opaque transactions, and allegations of racist tropes: Bored Ape Yacht Club was not the biggest crypto phenomenon, but it was one of the top beneficiaries of celebrity hype. That celebrity hype, in turn, helped draw new consumers to crypto — an industry rife with manipulation and fraud, and one that US regulators are now giving more scrutiny in the wake of the collapse of crypto exchange FTX.?CNN
+ A class action lawsuit, filed in December, alleges Hilton, Fallon, and other celebrities conspired in a “vast scheme” to artificially inflate the price of Bored Ape NFTs and enrich themselves, the crypto payments company they used to get the apes, MoonPay, and the company that made the Bored Apes, Yuga Labs.
Forget milk and eggs: Supermarkets are having a fire sale on data about you: When you use supermarket discount cards, you are sharing much more than what is in your cart—and grocery chains like Kroger are reaping huge profits selling this data to brands and advertisers. The?Markup
+ When you hit the checkout line at your local supermarket and give the cashier your phone number or loyalty card, you are handing over a valuable treasure trove of data that may not be limited to the items in your shopping cart.
+ Leveraging customer data this way has become a crucial growth area for top supermarket chain Kroger and other retailers over the past few years, offering much higher margins than milk and eggs. And Kroger may be about to get millions of households bigger.
+ “I think the average consumer thinks of a loyalty program as a way to save a few dollars on groceries each week. They’re not thinking about how their data is going to be funneled into this huge ecosystem with analytics and targeted advertising and tracking,” said John Davisson, director of litigation at Electronic Privacy Information Center (EPIC).
+ When you enter a store: If you have a Kroger app on your phone, Bluetooth beacons may ping the app to record your presence and may send you personalized offers.
+ At the register: If you use your loyalty membership (such as Kroger Plus or Boost), detailed information about your purchases gets added to your shopping history, tied to a unique household identifier.
+ If you are shopping online at Kroger.com: Third-party trackers send your product page views, search terms, and items that you have added to your shopping cart to Meta, Google, Bing, Pinterest, and Snapchat.
+ Founded in Cincinnati in 1883, Kroger counts 60 million households in the US as regular shoppers at 2,750 stores under the nearly two dozen retail brands that it owns and operates (including Ralphs and Food 4 Less).?
Hidden hydrogen: Does Earth hold vast stores of renewable, carbon-free fuel??Science
+ Contrary to conventional wisdom, large stores of natural hydrogen may exist all over the world, like oil and gas—but not in the same places.
+ These researchers say water-rock reactions deep within the Earth continuously generate hydrogen, which percolates up through the crust and sometimes accumulates in underground traps.?
+ The enthusiasm for natural hydrogen comes as interest in hydrogen as a clean, carbon-free fuel is surging.
+ The hydrogen rainbow: Researchers use colors to distinguish between different kinds of hydrogen.
- Gray hydrogen: Made from fossil fuels, which release carbon dioxide and add to global warming.
- Blue hydrogen: Same as gray hydrogen, but the carbon is captured and sequestered.
- Green hydrogen: Made without carbon emissions by using renewable electricity to split water.
- Gold hydrogen: Tapped from natural subsurface accumulations.
- Orange hydrogen: Stimulated by pumping water into deep source rocks.
+ Green hydrogen costs about $5 per kilogram, more than twice as much as gray hydrogen, which tends to track the price of natural gas.
+ The oil and gas industry has punctured Earth with millions of wells. How could it have overlooked hydrogen for so long? One reason is that hydrogen is scarce in the sedimentary rocks that yield oil and gas, such as organic-rich shales or mudstones.
+ Hydrogen is the smallest molecule of all: It can leak through minerals and even metals. If Earth were producing hydrogen, it seemed unlikely to hang around.
Children of the Ice Age: With the help of new archaeological approaches, our picture of young lives in the Palaeolithic is now marvelously vivid.?April Nowell
Eliminalia, a Spanish reputation management firm burying the truth for disreputable clients: The Spanish reputation management company helps public figures in trouble with the law to remove articles from the internet and to promote content that is favorable to them.?Le Monde
+ Eliminalia's internal documents show that the company sometimes used false names or email addresses impersonating judicial institutions.
The one percent are not as clever as they think: The brainiest people and the biggest-earners are two largely separate groups says new research.?Simon Kuper
+ The Davos Fallacy: the notion that very high earners are also very clever.?
+ According to a new study of 59,000 Swedish men. The highest-earning 1 percent and the brainiest 1 percent seem to be two largely separate groups, with little overlap.
+ It’s no wonder that cleverness barely predicts top incomes, because so many other factors matter more in working life. There’s luck, family background, motivation, self-regulation, skill at office politics and even height.
+ Brilliant people often aren’t driven by money. Many of them are intrinsically motivated: they love learning, and they make that their career goal.
+ Rather than funding clever people’s bank balances, we should subsidise their work. We want them to do the thinking, imagining and inventing for our societies.
+ "I write one page of masterpiece to ninety one pages of shit. I try to put the shit in the wastebasket." -- Ernest Hemingway
No more spring trainings: John Jaso walked away from Major League Baseball at 34, potentially leaving millions of dollars on the table. The sea was calling.?NYT
When did NBA stars become too cool to dunk??Jerry Brewer
The best draft prospect since LeBron is coming. NBA teams aren’t tanking for him.?The arrival of Victor Wembanyama in June’s draft has pressure-tested the NBA’s measures designed to keep teams competing on the floor. So far, those measures have passed.?WSJ
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc?
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
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