ITK Daily | February 15

Happy Wednesday.

Here’s today’s ITK Daily.

To be ITK, know this:

WP: Turkey-Syria quake: Death toll tops 41,000

Putin faces ‘quiet rebellion’ in Kremlin over Ukraine war failures: The Russian leader looks increasingly isolated, and his mistakes have cost him the respect and loyalty of top officials, analysts say.?The Times

+ In place of triumphant speeches in the Ukrainian capital, Putin’s image as a master strategist has been shattered, leaving him arguably weaker than at any time during his 23-year rule.

+ “A year on, Putin has nothing to reply to the main question: ‘How does he see a way out of the situation he created?’” Leonid Volkov, the former chief aide to Alexei Navalny, the imprisoned Russia opposition leader, wrote on social media.

+ Putin spent much of the pandemic holed up at his residences near Moscow and in Sochi. Visitors were obliged to pass through disinfecting “tunnels” before entry, and officials were ordered to quarantine for up to 14 days before they were allowed to meet the president.?

+ “Putin and the Russian elite see this war as existential. If Russia loses, if there are strikes on Crimea, I think that they are psychologically prepared to use nuclear weapons.”

+ “Putin thinks that he gave Ukraine too much time to arm itself. He believes now that if he does nothing, Russia will cease to exist in a few years. His only regret is that he didn’t begin the war earlier.”

Russia finds itself dependent on China: The friendship between the two countries is not as 'unlimited' as was declared on February 4, 2022.?Alain Frachon

+ After a year of the war it launched against Ukraine, Russia finds itself dependent on China.

+ Within the China-Russia couple, demography and the economy establish Chinese superiority.

+ The two countries share a border of 4,200 kilometers. Standing at some $18 trillion (more than €16 trillion), China (1.4 billion inhabitants) has a gross domestic product ten times greater than Russia's (142 million inhabitants).

+ To compensate for the loss of its rich European customers, Russia has no other choice for its hydrocarbons than the Chinese and Indian markets.

+ The Russians see the future of their country not in Europe, but in a Euro-Asian bloc, and will welcome this dependence on China.?

Russia is planning coup in Moldova, says President Maia Sandu: Politico reports: ‘The plan included sabotage and militarily trained people disguised as civilians to carry out violent actions,’ according to Moldovan leader.

Western intelligence shows Russians amassing aircraft on Ukraine border: FT reports NATO allies to prioritize rapid shipments of air defenses and ammunition as the conflict enters a new phase.

Suspected Iranian weapons seized by US Navy may go to Ukraine: WSJ reports US officials are considering sending a cache of arms to help Kyiv in its battle against Russia.

US focuses on training Ukrainian troops to use less ammo: Politico reports that Western nations are growing concerned over their ability to quickly replenish stocks.

US tells Ukraine it won’t send long-range missiles because it has few to spare: Politico reports the Biden administration wants to ensure it has enough ATACMS for the US military.

US warns Ukraine it faces a pivotal moment in war: As the first anniversary nears, White House fears flow of arms may be harder to come by.?WP

+ Biden and his aides are eager to avoid any sign of defection or weakening resolve by Western allies ahead of the Feb. 24 anniversary, hoping to signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin that support for Ukraine is not waning.

+ UK PM Sunak also announced a national one minute’s silence on February 24 to mark one year since the invasion of Ukraine.

How might the violence in Ukraine come to an end??Russia's invasion of Ukraine began one year ago. But how might the war end? Russia seems further from victory than ever, but a Ukrainian triumph is also far from a foregone conclusion. What are the possible scenarios for an end to the conflict??Der Spiegel

+ Starting a war is simple. Ending it, though, is quite a bit more difficult.

+ Hitler’s "blitzkrieg" ended up lasting six years.

+ War is a monster that ultimately grows over the heads of those who unleashed it.

+ The upshot is that Ukraine, a country for which nobody in Europe felt a particular responsibility over the past several years, has now become a key crucible of global politics.

+ There is one scenario for Europe and Ukraine that would likely be almost as distasteful as a Russian victory: a partially frozen conflict, a deep wound in Europe’s side with new skirmishes daily.?

+ The end of the Korean War is seen by many as a model for a frozen conflict. In 1953, the armistice agreement created a 4-kilometer-wide demilitarized zone between the north and the south of the country.

+ The war against Ukraine, however, may be Putin’s private obsession and only tolerated by the Russian elite out of opportunism.

What China has learned from the Ukraine war: Even great powers aren’t safe from economic warfare if the US-led order sticks together.?Evan A. Feigenbaum + Adam Szubin

What to expect from the 2023 Munich Security Conference?Brunswick

+ Every year since 1963, the Munich Security Conference has hosted governments, experts, and companies to come together to discuss Euro-Atlantic defense and security issues.

+ Dominated by the presence of NATO countries, including a strong US delegation, the conference functions as a thermometer of European security debates and helps identify future trends.

+ The Sino-Russian relationship will remain in the limelight a year after their “no-limits partnership”

Chinese mobile masts loom over the Munich Security Conference: Politico reports Huawei kit is set up around the venue, highlighting a sore point in Germany’s security ties with the US and allies.

Balloon furor deflates China’s commercial charm offensive: Politico reports Chinese officials have been blanketing Washington with pleas for a trade detente in 2023. The balloon incident blew up their campaign.

China is the master of grey-zone aggression: The West must confront Beijing over the scale of its infiltration of business and academia.?Elisabeth Braw

China’s balloon-size blunder is a huge opportunity: Beijing has given the United States a rare opportunity to rally public concern and build international solidarity.?Richard Fontaine

China tries to depict furor over spy balloon as sign of US decline: Ignoring charges of spying, Beijing says Washington’s “overreaction” is a symptom of the country’s broken politics.?NYT

US tracked China spy balloon from launch on Hainan Island along unusual path: The large Chinese surveillance device that flew across Alaska and the continental United States may have been diverted on an errant path caused by unusual weather conditions.?WP

The truth is out there: UFO fever grips Congress: Senators entered a classified Biden administration briefing with big questions about the objects shot down in US airspace. They left the room, reiterating calls for more transparency.?Politico

The Hill: Tester to lead Senate probe on failures to spot Chinese spy balloons earlier?

The Chinese surveillance balloon: Blown out of proportion??Juliana Suess

Adversary drones are spying on the US, and the Pentagon acts like they’re UFOs: The US military seems aloof to the fact that it’s being toyed with by a terrestrial adversary, and key capabilities may be compromised as a result.?The War Zone

Spy balloons are a growth industry?John Herrman

China's Xi hails Iran 'solidarity': AFP reports the Chinese President is hosting his Iranian counterpart for a three-day visit.

Taiwan’s tech king to Nancy Pelosi: US is in over its head: “Fifty billion dollars – well, that’s a good start,” quipped the 91-year-old Morris Chang, warning that Washington’s new bipartisan industrial policy may not add up.?Politico

+ Chang warned that it was terribly na?ve of the United States to think that it could rapidly spend its way into one of the most complex electronics-manufacturing markets in the world.

+ The task of making semiconductor chips was almost impossibly complicated, he said, demanding Herculean labors merely to obtain the raw materials involved and requiring microscopic precision in the construction of fabrication plants and then in the assembly of the chips themselves.

+ If the United States wanted a semiconductor industry it could rely on, Chang said, then it should keep investing in the security of Taiwan.?

Marcos summons Beijing envoy over laser use in South China Sea: Nikkei reports that the Philippines slams China's 'acts of aggression' as US vows anew to defend an ally.

Indian tax officials raid BBC’s New Delhi, Mumbai offices after it airs Modi program: Politico reports the move comes after New Delhi took umbrage at a documentary about the PM.

BBC's The Modi Question.?Watch the two-part documentary?here .

Can a political underdog save Nigeria??Peter Obi thinks he can renew Africa’s biggest economy and democracy.?Economist

Slashing tourism will heal Barcelona, says mayor: Ada Colau is promising to cut overcrowding, cruise ships, and traffic pollution as she seeks a third term. Will it help??The Times

+ The city draws more than 27 million visitors a year.

+ Colau has closed thousands of illegal tourist apartments rented out on sites such as Airbnb and banned further licences for them.

+ She has also limited the number of hotel beds in the city and forbidden the opening of hotels in its center.

+ Now the mayor wants to reduce cruise ship visits to Barcelona’s port and opposes an extension of the airport.

+ With an area of 100 sq km and 1.6 million inhabitants, Barcelona is one of the densest cities in Europe.

WP: Scotland’s Nicola Sturgeon, flag-bearer for independence, to resign

Britain’s political power couples — 2023 ranking?Politico

Back me or quit Labour, Keir Starmer tells hard left: We’re never going back, says the leader in an ultimatum to Corbynistas.?The Times

Has Macron turned France into America’s poodle??Gavin Mortimer

+ French opposition to the war is predicated on several factors; the worsening economic situation in the country is one, and the fear of a nuclear conflict another.

+ In last year’s presidential election, eight of the 12 candidates pledged to withdraw France from NATO if voted into office.

Bolsonaro says he will return to Brazil in March to lead opposition: The ex-president tells The Wall Street Journal he will defend himself against accusations he fomented post-election riots.

Canada's medical assistance in dying (MAID) numbers: Statistics Canada reported Monday that the number of medically assisted deaths in Canada rose 35 percent between 2020 and 2021, from 7,446 to 10,029.

Biden taps Fed's Lael Brainard as top economic adviser: Politico reports the president is also likely to pick Jared Bernstein to head the Council of Economic Advisers.

Bloomberg: US to sell 26 million more barrels from strategic oil reserve

GOP legislative agenda hits snags amid party divisions: NYT reports Republicans have pulled back on legislation to crack down on unauthorized immigrants and support law enforcement as internal disputes conspire with a tiny majority to freeze them in place.

Nikki Haley's 2024 presidential announcement video, watch it?here .

Nikki Haley’s bid illustrates the problems of the Republican Party: Her long-shot candidacy for 2024 complicates its chances of finding a new leader.?Economist

Nikki Haley’s time for choosing: The 2024 hopeful can’t decide who she wants to be—the leader of a post-Trump GOP or a “friend” to the president who tried to sabotage democracy.?Tim Alberta

DMN: Ted Cruz won't run for president in 2024 but will seek third Senate term

LAT: Sen. Feinstein makes it official: She will retire at the end of her current term

Crypto investors brace for more crackdowns from regulators: WSJ reports officials cut off access to products and services vital to digital-currency business.

Elizabeth Warren is building an anti-crypto army. Some conservatives are on board.?Warren is zeroing in on national security concerns as her focus for potential crypto legislation, even as she raises red flags about a host of issues in the space, from consumer protections to environmental impact.?Politico

The new interventionism could pose a threat to global trade: Security concerns are driving the fashion for active industrial policy, but there are potential downsides.?Martin Wolf

+ We are all interventionists now.

+ Fragmentation is very easy to start. But it will be hard to control and even harder to reverse.

Mariana Mazzucato: ‘The McKinseys and the Deloittes have no expertise in the areas that they’re advising in’: The economist argues that consultants are hobbling the state’s ability to perform the role of economic motor.?FT

+ Consultancies and outsourcers, Mazzucato argues, know less than they claim, cost more than they seem to, and — over the long term — prevent the public sector developing in-house capabilities.

+ Do you support Nasa going back to the Moon? I support Nasa getting back its mission-oriented policies and not simply thinking it’s there to de-risk Elon Musk.

+ Did you consider leaving the UK after Brexit? It’s less dynamic. I wouldn’t have moved here now. But I can’t think of any better place to live than London.

+ “By design, we’re making it much more interesting to work in the Googles, the Goldman Sachses and the McKinseys. How do you revive the civil service? It’s not by the Dominic Cummings ‘we need geeks in government’. It’s by changing the remit of government. We need to make it really cool.”

Boeing and Airbus sell 470 planes to Air India in record deal: WSJ reports the airline’s orders mark the largest deal for commercial aircraft in aviation history.

Apple’s manufacturing shift to India hits stumbling blocks: The iPhone maker is under pressure to unwind its China-orientated supply chain strategy following the COVID disruption.?FT

+ Apple is hitting stumbling blocks in its effort to increase production in India, as the US tech giant faces pressure to cut its manufacturing reliance on China.

+ The iPhone maker has been sending product designers and engineers from California and China to factories in southern India, to train locals and help establish production.

+ The Apple engineers have also, at times, been housed at city-centre hotels in Chennai, the capital of the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu, two hours away from the factories where they are working.?

+ Bain estimates that manufacturing exports from India could more than double from $418bn in 2022 to more than $1tn in 2028.

+ “India” was also mentioned 15 times in Apple’s earnings call earlier this month, with chief executive Tim Cook saying he is “very bullish on India.”

+ He called the market “hugely exciting” and “a major focus” and confirmed plans to soon open the first Apple Stores in the country.

Ford?temporarily halted production and stopped shipments of its F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck over an unidentified battery problem.

Ford?announced plans to cut 1,300 UK jobs, a fifth of its British workforce.

Shoichiro Toyoda, son of Toyota founder, dies at 97: Nikkei reports the father of the current president expanded the Japanese carmaker into a global leader.

Toyota’s new EV plan is a big reality check: Getting drivers to adopt EVs — and buy into the technology transition — will require a fundamental shift in the company’s thinking.?Anjani Trivedi

+ As the world’s largest automaker transitions to the electric-vehicle era, it has a warning for the industry: It’s time to fundamentally rethink traditional manufacturing.

+ Manufacturing new-age cars isn’t a cakewalk — and it’s part of the reason scaling up has proven difficult.

+ While it may seem like making EVs is an extension of ICE vehicles, it isn’t.

+ The body architecture is unlike that of traditional ones, as is its assembly.

+ EVs need a whole new set of electronics and wiring, while the parts require different modes of handling and storage, and are made using other machines.

+ Much of the manufacturing process revolves around the battery, which accounts for almost 40% to 50% of the cost and presents a big technology hurdle.

+ For a company that has mastered the art of carmaking and managed to make millions of vehicles through severe crises, this is a serious shift that will likely pave the way for how EVs are manufactured en masse.

Airbnb posts first annual profit: WSJ reports the short-term rental company recorded a profit of $1.9 billion in 2022, benefiting from strong travel demand despite high inflation and recession fears.

Airbnb earnings surge as foreign travel rebounds: FT reports a jump in cross-border trips and looser China COVID restrictions accelerate travel recovery.

TikTok’s talks with US have an unofficial player: China: WSJ reports ByteDance is under pressure from the US to silo—or divest—TikTok’s American operations, but the company also has to navigate Beijing’s druthers.

Subway said it’s exploring a possible sale: The closely held company could be worth as much as $10 billion.

French wines and spirits set new export record: Le Monde reports the overseas sales of champagne, cognac, Burgundy wine, and other French spirits have exceeded the €17-billion mark for the first time.

Louis Vuitton?named music producer Pharrell Williams as its new menswear designer.

Get me Risa Heller!?If you’re Jeff Zucker or Mario Batali or Jared Kushner and you’re trying to survive a bout of very bad press, she’s who you call.?NY Mag

+ She demands you tell her the entire truth about how things got to the point that you had to call her, before telling you what to expect, and helping you navigate it.

+ “Is there anybody who has stepped in shit who does not call her to clean their shoes?

+ “It’s really hard, even if you’re in the business of dealing with the press on a daily basis, to understand that when you’re the subject of the press, it’s probably better to get some help.”

+ “When I read something that’s really in the news and I don’t get to be involved with it, I’m like, Why aren’t I in this? I feel a little upset.”

+ Nothing about the office, one suspects, is off-message.?

+ Heller tells me she thinks of her job as simply “adding context” to a story.

+ When the reporter and the editor — and maybe the internet itself — seem ready to render a summary verdict, she will provide them with facts and contingencies that might generate reasonable doubt.?

+ She invites you into the gray zone.

+?‘Put on your big-boy pants. What do you think your male colleagues would do if a Twitter mob was coming after them? They’d use it to sell fucking books.’”

How Architectural Digest became the new Vogue: With rocketing prices and COVID making home a shared obsession, celebrity house tours are no longer a niche interest.?Guardian

+ A new generation of digital-native celebrities, relaxed about the blurring of boundaries between public and private lives, have embraced celebrity home tours as a tool to promote their personal brands and to challenge public preconceptions.?

Michel Bourdin obituary: Uncompromising ma?tre chef de cuisine who turned the Connaught hotel in London into ‘the last French restaurant in the world.’?The Times

+ He believed only in “cuisine marché” or cuisine of the market, meaning dishes inspired by fresh ingredients.?

+ “Good cooking is the accumulation of small details done to perfection.”

+ “I tell them that if they wanted to be a musician, and I asked if they liked music and they said, ‘I’m not too sure,’ they’d have no chance. It’s the same if you want to be a cuisinier. If you don’t love your food, do something else.”

+ Bourdin believed it took 15 years for a chef to be properly trained.

+ For Bourdin, a truffle was “the king of condiments — it brings cooking to an art level.”

+ His awards included Chevalier de Mérite Agricole, de l’Ordre National de Mérite and the title ma?tre cuisinier de France.

When a visit to the museum becomes an ethical dilemma: Western museums are major tourist attractions, drawing travelers from around the world. But what responsibility do we bear as spectators for patronizing institutions that display what critics say are stolen works??NYT

+ Western museums are major tourist attractions, drawing travelers from around the world. But what responsibility do we bear as spectators for patronizing institutions that display what critics say are stolen works??

+ Should we be asking how these museums got their treasures?

+ European and American museums have long resisted calls for repatriation, arguing that objects from Africa, Asia and elsewhere were legally obtained, that they are safer where they are, and that passing time and turmoil have made it impossible to determine rightful owners.

+ Last year, New York State passed a law requiring museums to identify art stolen by the Nazis on placards “prominently placed” alongside the art.

+ “I’ve described the British Museum as the world’s greatest receiver of stolen property”

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc?

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal

Caracal produces ITK Daily.

Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry.

Caracal is here to help.

Caracal is a geopolitical business communications firm specializing in global business issues at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics.

Caracal believes that to be a world-class geopolitical business communicator, you need global street smarts coupled with holistic, high-frequency, and high-low communications.?

More @ caracal.global