ITK Daily | December 7

Happy Wednesday.

Here’s today’s ITK Daily.

To be ITK, know this:

Insights | Political trends matter until they don't.?

"I am probably more confused about American politics right now than at any point in my career." -- Newt Gingrich

Where was the "Red Wave" sweeping more Republicans into DC?

The triple combination of a weak economy, high inflation, and an unpopular President Biden, plus being the political party out of the White House, all suggested the GOP would do exceptionally well in a midterm election.

That's the trend pros used.

That's the trend pros trusted.

That was the trend that mattered until it wasn't the trend that mattered.

We are ending a 28-year run of a generation of American politics defined by Republicans taking over the House of Representatives, Speaker Newt Gingrich, the Contract with America, Frank Luntz's "words that work," Sarah Palin as a VP candidate,?the GWOT, the Great Recession, Barack Obama's audacity of hope, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Donald Trump as President.

The following political span will focus on cultural issues, various education achievement levels, passport ownership, Whole Foods vs. Cracker Barrel, yoga vs. mixed-martial arts, and workers who assemble vs. workers who create.

Less about "it's the economy, stupid" and more about causes over campaigns.

An exciting time.?

+ Every Democratic Senate incumbent won re-election this cycle, the first time in almost 90 years that either party can say that.

+ "we'll have so much winning, you'll get bored with winning"

Reuters: Biden invites Brazil's Lula for White House visit

Brazil, a bastion of hydropower, is gaining traction in wind and solar: WSJ reports the country has lots of sunny days and windy nights, prime conditions for investing in renewable energy.

WP: Argentine Vice President Cristina Kirchner guilty of corruption

+ Cristina Fernández de Kirchner was sentenced to six years in prison and banned from public office for steering public works contracts to a family friend.

Quebec’s government wants to make oath to King Charles III optional?WP

+ The Minister of Democratic Institutions, Jean-Fran?ois Roberge, tabled Bill 4 in the national assembly on Tuesday, which will put an end to the crisis that has shaken parliament for weeks over the duty of allegiance Quebec elected officials must swear to the British Crown.

+ For decades, elected officials have been required to swear two oaths to the people of Quebec and to the Crown in order to sit in parliament. The second part of the oath has long been a source of unease for many MNAs.

+ In short, the bill tabled on Tuesday stipulates that only the oath of allegiance to the people of Quebec will henceforth be required, and the only one that will be mandatory, the other becoming optional.

COVID Canada cash: Ottawa may have overpaid as much as C$32 billion ($23.5 billion) in COVID benefits.

Three Amigos Summit: President Biden plans to head to Mexico City next month for his first scheduled foreign trip of 2023. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is also expected to attend this year's North American Leaders' Summit.

Mexico’s troubled Maya Train tourist project will now include a 45-mile stretch of elevated trackway through the jungle, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said Monday.

Haiti: Inside the capital city taken hostage by brutal gangs: BBC reports in Port-au-Prince, you cannot see the boundaries, but you must know where they are. Your life may depend on it. Competing gangs are carving up the Haitian capital, kidnapping, raping, and killing at will. They demarcate their territory in blood. Cross from one gang's turf to another, and you may not make it back.

TOI: G20 presidency belongs to entire nation, says PM Narendra Modi

Australia to strengthen ‘unbreakable’ US alliance as bulwark against China: SMH reports Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defence Minister Richard Marles are meeting their US counterparts in Washington.

South Korea's Yoon draws closer to ASEAN, keeping distance from China: Nikkei reports the president welcomes Vietnam's PM in the latest move of new Indo-Pacific strategy.

SCMP: South Korea tipped to tack to US, putting strategic ambiguity on China behind it

+ Yoon Suk-yeol aims to exert more pressure on China over North Korean threats

+ But experts are skeptical Beijing will move to rein in Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions

South Korean lawmakers raise concerns over Chinese voters: AP reports members of South Korea’s ruling conservative party have proposed a bill that would place tighter restrictions on the voting rights of foreign permanent residents in local elections, which they insist is necessary to protect the country’s democracy from being undermined by Chinese voters.

Bloomberg: Japan’s rising defense budget is now nearly on par with Russia

+ PM Kishida calls for a 57% increase over five years

+ China accuses Japan of sensationalizing regional threats

NATO + Japan: The country participated in a NATO summit for the first time when Japanese PM Fumio Kishida attended the alliance’s 2022 event in Madrid.

Nikkei: Japan sends fighter jets to Philippines for 1st time in air force exchange

+ Visit marks Manila's latest move to strengthen defense ties with Tokyo and Washington

In a turbulent time for China, Xi projects unity at an ex-leader’s funeral: Paying tribute to Jiang Zemin, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, urged the nation to rally around himself a week after protests tested his authority.?NYT

Xi hails Jiang Zemin's 'opposition' to Tiananmen protests: Nikkei reports at the memorial Xi praises late leader for overseeing HK handover.

Chinese Communist Party strives for unified image at Jiang Zemin’s funeral: Beijing seeks to honor the former president without drawing a contrast with Xi Jinping.?FT

CNN: China’s Xi to visit Saudi Arabia amid frayed ties with the US

+ @annmarie: Saudi state news agency @spagov announces Xi Jinping’s trip to the kingdom this week. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will take part in a Saudi-Chinese summit during Xi’s Dec. 7-9 visit.?

LBP: Over half of Lebanon's GDP comes from remittances.

Hungary blocks EU Ukraine aid, deepening rift with Brussels: AP reports Budapest vetoed an 18 billion euro ($18.93 billion) financial aid package to Kyiv, leaving the other 26 nations to scramble to keep the money supply going.

Russian oligarch seizes 400,000 acres of Ukrainian farmland, owners say: WSJ reports the family company of a Putin ally and former Russian agriculture minister has become one of the biggest farm operators in Ukraine.

WP: Ukrainian drones responsible for attacks on Russian airfields, Kyiv official says

For Sunak, like Biden, dullness could be a secret weapon: For all their differences, President Biden and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of Britain share a challenge: operating in the wake of a larger-than-life predecessor. They have tactics in common, too.?NYT

Macron once again attempts to reassure France over possible power cuts: Le Monde reports the French president urged people 'not to panic,' claiming power outages could be avoided if usage was reduced.

AFP: Capital of Ethiopia's Tigray region reconnected to electric grid after a year of war-related cuts

HBD: Noam Chomsky

Global renewable energy use will overtake coal by 2025, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) .

+ The amount of electricity generated by wind turbines and solar panels will more than double in the next five years and account for almost 20% of global power generation by 2027.

+ Data centers will consume 29% of Ireland’s electricity by 2028.

Briefing: What to watch in 2023: Teneo ’s global team of geopolitical risk experts and Co-President Kevin Kajiwara will discuss the critical issues to watch in key regions worldwide in 2023 on December 15 at 8:30 am ET.?RSVP here.

What does the world economy look like through 2075??Here’s what Goldman Sachs thinks?Bloomberg

+ Goldman economists see global growth on a declining path

+ Team led by Hatzius sees risks in protectionism, climate change

"Bumpy times ahead.": 高盛 ' David Solomon said a US recession in 2023 is possible and that smaller bonuses and job cuts should be no surprise.

This is the biggest pre-recession recession in my life.

Facebook threatens to pull news from platform if Congress passes bill helping publishers: WSJ reports the move echoes the social network’s stance in other countries, including Australia and Canada.

TikTok national-security deal faces more delays as worry grows over risks: US officials say popular social-media platform poses a range of security concerns.?WSJ

AP: Maryland bans TikTok in state agencies, latest state to act

In Phoenix, a Taiwanese chip giant builds a hedge against China: WSJ reports 台积公司 , the world’s biggest maker of advanced computer chips, unveiled an ambitious factory upgrade in Arizona.

+ TSMC outlined a $40 billion plan on Tuesday to expand and upgrade a US production hub in Phoenix.?

Why the GOP will lose its war on ‘Woke Wall Street’: Republicans can’t accept that they dislike modern capitalism, so they’re blaming “ESG” instead.?Eric Levitz

Allies of Kevin McCarthy implore GOP holdouts to back him for Speaker: WSJ reports a narrow Republican majority means the candidate can afford to lose only four votes.

Election 2024: Axios reports Biden could announce a potential 2024 presidential bid after the Christmas and New Year's holidays, White House chief of staff Ron Klain said this week.

Tallahassee triumph: Ron DeSantis will take two days to mark his inauguration for a second term as Florida governor as he courts Republican mega donors and eyes a challenge to Donald Trump for the GOP presidential nomination in 2024.

+ DeSantis, 44, begins his second term as governor on January 3

WWW: 37 percent of the world’s population, 2.9 billion people, have never used the Internet, per the Imternational Telecommunication Union .

Everyone in your feed is talking about ChatGPT and Lensa, and here’s why: Two internet sensations give non-nerds a turn at artificial intelligence, yielding surprising wit and stunning avatars.?WSJ

The brilliance and weirdness of ChatGPT: A new chatbot from OpenAI inspires awe, fear, stunts, and attempts to circumvent its guardrails.?NYT

摩根士丹利 ?said it will reduce its global workforce by about 2,000—roughly 2% of its staff.

苹果 ?scaled back its self-driving EV plans and postponed the car's target launch date by about a year to 2026.

Hitachi ?plans to hire 30,000 people skilled in the field of digital transformation over the next three years.

So you want to be a TikTok star??The social media platform is transforming the music industry. Is that a good thing??New Yorker

Are edibles better for you—or at least less bad—than alcohol??Here’s how the health effects of each vice stack up.?WSJ

F. Murray Abraham would make ‘The White Lotus’ all over again: The buzzy series is one of several featuring the actor, who at 83 is finding some of the most satisfying work of his career. “I still am thrilled by acting,” he said.?NYT

LAT: UCLA women’s soccer pulls off miracle comeback over North Carolina for NCAA title

+ UCLA wins the 2022 national championship in an all-time classic, 3-2 in 2OT.

+ UCLA (22-2-1) trailed 2-0 late in the second half before scoring two goals in the final 10 minutes to force overtime.

WP: Spirit set to play all home matches at Audi Field under new deal

CBC: Christine Sinclair, Diana Matheson reveal pro Canadian women's soccer league set for kickoff in 2025

+ Professional women's soccer is coming to Canada

+ Christine Sinclair and former national teammate Diana Matheson announced on Monday plans to kick off a domestic professional women's league in 2025, featuring eight teams throughout Canada

+ Each team will have at least one Canadian international, and the goal is to bring home about half of the over 100 Canadians currently playing abroad.

World Cup Quarterfinals:

CRO v BRA - Friday @ 10:00 am ET

NED v ARG - Friday @ 2:00 om ET

MAR v POR - Saturday @ 10:00 am ET

FRA v ENG - Saturday @ 2:00 pm ET

Heisman Trophy: Georgia's Stetson Bennett, USC's Caleb Williams, TCU's Max Duggan, and Ohio State's CJ Stroud were announced Monday finalists.

+ Caleb Williams (USC QB) is the Heisman betting odds favorite.

FOS: Qatar now wants to host 2036 Summer Olympics?

+ The next three Summer Olympics will occur in Paris in 2024, Los Angeles in 2028, and Brisbane in 2032.

+ India, Indonesia, South Korea, and Germany have all shown interest in bidding for the Olympics.

The?Oakland Athletics?will have their relocation fee waived if they decide to move to Las Vegas.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc?

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