ITK Daily | April 20

Happy Thursday.

Here’s today’s ITK Daily.

To be ITK, know this:?

Al Jazeera: Ceasefire falters as nearly 300 killed

CNN: People scramble to leave Sudan’s capital after attempted ceasefires fail to stop violence

Le Monde: In Sudan, Khartoum transforms into ghost town as inhabitants flee

+ Desperate civilians are trying to flee the fighting as all announced ceasefires have been violated by the troops of the two rival generals.

+ Amnesty International says the spread of the conflict is exacerbating the plight of civilians in the Darfur region.

+ Fighting between Sudan’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues for a sixth day as the latest attempt at a ceasefire breaks down.

Sudan's truce falters, as Egypt repatriates army personnel: ABC News reports Egypt has repatriated dozens of technicians in its air force who had been held by one of the warring factions in Sudan.

Turkey’s micromanager-in-chief faces test of his political life: President Erdogan’s unorthodox economic philosophy looms large in the May 14 election.?Bloomberg

+ After two decades in power, Erdogan now faces the test of his political life in presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for May 14.?

+ His gamble is that a large enough portion of the electorate still wants a leader with a firm hand to guide the country through the aftermath of a natural disaster that killed more than 50,000 Turks and inflicted more than $100 billion worth of damage.

+ Erdogan’s version of a command economy relies on a cadre of technocrats inculcated in his doctrine, according to interviews with high-ranking current and former officials who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal. Many of them trace his maverick views on monetary policy to his religious beliefs and his brief career in the private sector before he took up politics.

+ Erdogan is affiliated with Turkey’s powerful Islamist movement, which opposes collecting interest, in line with the Koran. His thinking on the matter also was shaped by an 81-page work titled Fair Economic Order written by a mentor, the late former Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan.

AP: US Navy sails first drone through Mideast’s Strait of Hormuz

Rwanda's Kagame defends Russia's presence in Africa: DW reports while visiting West Africa, Rwandan President Paul Kagame said that Russia had the right to be anywhere in Africa ― as much as any other country. He also accused the West of dragging Africa into its own political issues.

Ukraine agitates to keep EU bid on Europe’s mind: Politico reports Kyiv is anxious that updates from Brussels may be slipping amid broader concerns that Ukrainian imports are hurting EU farmers.

The EU in 2035: Bigger, messier, tougher: A valedictory gaze into the crystal ball.?Paul Taylor

EU energy: Natural gas consumption in the EU fell almost 18 percent in the eight months to March, lessening fears of energy shortages because of cuts to Russian imports.

Black Sea grain deal: Some 28 million metric tons of Ukrainian grain have been exported under the Black Sea Grain Initiative since last July, including to poor countries facing the brunt of the world’s spiraling food crisis. But Russia is threatening to walk away from the pact, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey unless its demands are met.

‘We need every man’: Ukraine’s troops prepare for counter-offensive against Russia: The Financial Times joins units training near the frontline as Kyiv faces ‘decisive moment’ in war.?FT

+ After 14 months of all-out war, including grinding, months-long battles in the eastern cities of Bakhmut and Avdiivka, Ukraine’s military has been worn down. It has lost a large portion of its experienced soldiers, who made up the most effective units, and expended massive amounts of weaponry and artillery.

What is the point of Humza Yousaf??Katy Balls

+ Just a year ago, Nicola Sturgeon looked invincible. Now the SNP is in freefall and Humza Yousaf, its new leader, is unable to give a clear answer when asked if his party is currently a criminal organisation.

+ Many in the SNP believe it is a matter of when, not if, Humza Yousaf is pushed out.

+ For now, the Scottish Labour attack line is to depict the SNP as a party of sleaze and a tired government that’s run out of ideas and lost the ability to go on. But to really win over some wavering pro-Indy voters, Labour will be pressed on its position on independence.

The India stack: Opening the digital marketplace to the masses: New Delhi has pioneered a new approach to online infrastructure in its drive to connect 1.4bn. But there are privacy and data protection concerns.?FT

+ This digital infrastructure is interoperable and “stacked” together — meaning that private companies can build apps integrated with state services to provide consumers with seamless access to everything from welfare payments to loan applications.

+ Supporters argue that India has found a world-beating solution for building out and regulating the online commons that is more equitable than the US’s laissez-faire approach, more innovative than the EU’s regulation-heavy model and more transparent than China’s totalitarian template.

+ As New Delhi hosts this year’s G20 presidency and surpasses China as the world’s most populous country, India’s public digital infrastructure has become a core part of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s efforts to present India as a nascent economic superpower, alternative investment destination to China and leading voice of the global south.

+ India’s government argues that bringing the world’s poor online is one of the fastest means to the end of global development. Around 850mn people globally don’t have legal ID and 1.4bn are unbanked, according to the World Bank.

+ India has made some of the tech behind its digital infrastructure public for others to use. Officials say this guards against both excess state control and market capture by Big Tech giants such as Amazon and Google in advanced economies like the US.

+ Ambarish Kenghe, vice-president at Google Pay, says that as digital payments grow “a bunch of opportunities become available”, from allowing customers to pay bills through the app to taking loans. “You’ll see us enabling commerce, enabling services on top of payments. That’s my hope,” he says.

One of the mantras of a world-class geopolitical business communicator: “Globalization depends on technology and politics”

India 2023 is like China 2009.

Buzz-heavy.

Immense promise.

Hyperbolic commerce.

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India races to get rich before it gets old as population passes China?Bloomberg

+ Bloomberg Economics says India needs to advance on four broad fronts — urbanization, infrastructure, up-skilling, and broadening its labor force, and boosting manufacturing — to fully cash in on its demographic dividend and reshape the global economy in the process.

+ “The country is young, English speaking and the rising labor force is already supporting the government’s ‘Make in India’ initiative,” said Abhishek Gupta, senior India economist with Bloomberg Economics. “Geopolitical tailwinds are also helping.”

+ Over the period to 2040, India will likely add 270 million people to its urban population, according to the International Energy Authority.

+ For urbanization to pay economic dividends, infrastructure investment will be needed on a massive scale. There has been progress — since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s election win in 2014, the number of domestic air passengers has roughly doubled and the national highway network expanded more than 50%.?

+ Education is another stumbling block. Many degrees are essentially worthless and a skills mismatch has jeopardized growth. Half of all graduates in India are unemployable, according to a study by Wheebox, a group that advises businesses. Unemployment is stubbornly high at around 7%.

+ Four decades ago, China and India were both largely agrarian-based economies. But as the Western world outsourced production of everything from toys to TVs and tools, China seized a moment that India missed. Today, manufacturing comprises more than a quarter of China’s economy, compared to just 14% for India.

+ Increasing rivalry between the US and China is giving Modi’s government a new shot at boosting its manufacturing share to a targeted quarter of GDP. And there are pockets of progress. Apple Inc.’s three key Taiwanese suppliers won incentives from India to boost smartphone production and exports.

+ “The political and democratic set up in the country is more conducive for global investment than China,” said Sanjay Kumar Mohanty, a professor at the International Institute for Population Sciences in Mumbai.

+ But moving up the value chain won’t be easy. Labor laws are still restrictive and compared to nations like Bangladesh or Vietnam, India has been less successful in creating the highly-efficient industrial parks preferred by many global manufacturers.

+ Health care is just one illustrative pressure point. Today, India has about five hospital beds per 10,000 people. The ratio in China is about eight times that, and analysts say India will take decades just to reach the level where China currently stands.

Taiwan's choice: China or the United States??Following overseas trips by the current and former Taiwanese presidents, political parties are gearing up for Taiwan's 2024 election, with the slogan "war or peace" dominating the conversation.?DW

As Xi befriends world leaders, he hardens his stance on the US: China has rebuffed calls to restart high-level talks with the United States, raising the risk of confrontation in contested areas like the Taiwan Strait.?NYT

China finds unlikely allies in Germany's far right and far left: Foreign policy alignment of AfD and Left Party could weaken hawkish China bent.?Nikkei

+ The German government's increasingly strong line on China is coming under fire from smaller parties on both the extreme right and left, whose growing popularity could pressure Berlin to soften its line on Beijing.

+ "The notion of Germany being a vassal state of the US is strongly supported by both the right and left specters and recently got a boost from the center by Macron," said Reinhard Biedermann, a German professor of international relations at Tamkang University in Taipei.

G7 stresses unity on China following unease over Macron’s comments: WP reports the leading democracies downplayed their differences at a meeting in Japan after France’s president revealed concerns about getting dragged into a war over Taiwan.

Macron's comments on China and Taiwan fuel unease within the Foreign Ministry: Le Monde reports some French diplomats are tired of having to clarify the president's 'misunderstood positions' abroad and of the lack of communication between the Elysée Palace and their ministry.

Forget Macron, Europe and the US see eye-to-eye on China’s threat: The real obstacle to decoupling from Beijing isn’t Western governments but Western companies that have bet heavily on China.?Greg Ip

+ In its geopolitical competition with the West, China has long sought to divide the US from Europe. Last week it appeared to score a coup when French President Emmanuel Macron declared Europe wouldn’t follow the US’s approach toward Beijing.?

+ Unfortunately for China, Europe’s assertive posture probably has more staying power precisely because it doesn’t reflect submission to US leadership. Rather, it results from Europe’s own re-evaluation of China’s strategic and ideological direction, most of all its support for Russia since its invasion of Ukraine.

Janet Yellen to say security comes before economy in US-China relationship: Treasury secretary to give a speech laying out Biden administration’s China policy.?WSJ

+ In prepared excerpts of a speech she will give, Yellen listed three goals for the US relationship with China: protecting human rights and national security, establishing healthy economic ties, and cooperating on major global issues. She criticized subsidies the Chinese government offers to its industries and said the US will remain the world’s dominant economic power.?

Yellen to call for ‘constructive and fair’ economic relationship with China: Treasury secretary to warn Beijing the US will keep resisting its ‘unfair’ economic policies.?FT

+ In a speech on Thursday, Yellen is expected to warn Beijing that the US will keep resisting its “unfair” economic policies, but will add that Washington is not trying to “stifle” the Chinese economy with national security measures.

One of the mantras of a world-class geopolitical business communicator: “Where you sit is where you stand”

Analysis: Xi, not Trump, started on path to decoupling: The leader's desire to be independent of US influence has been consistent for 11 years.?Nikkei

+ To some extent, Xi has got what he wanted. The US is probably not hijacking the Chinese economy today.

+ But it has also become difficult for Chinese companies -- both state-owned and private -- to expand operations around the world without restrictions. This has become a drag on Chinese economic growth.

+ In the 11 years under Xi, the fundamental principle that moves China has changed. The party's political logic takes precedence over any logic of economic freedom. The economy is but a tool to complement Communist-led politics.

+ Xi has already acquired ultimate power, and those around him are all his close aides. There is no one who can fundamentally correct the basic policy that the top leader has pushed ahead for political reasons.

+ Small and midsize manufacturing companies, which have supported the Chinese economy, are also in a serious slump. If they do not get back on their feet, it will become impossible to secure jobs for huge numbers of new university graduates and others.

+ Foreign companies, including Japanese ones, are gradually shifting some production from China to Southeast Asia and India.

+ Since his pledge to fight American hijacking 11 years ago, Xi has followed through. U.S.-China decoupling has progressed step by step. Non-American companies are also caught up in the storm.

One of the mantras of a world-class geopolitical business communicator: “Good politics rarely makes good economics”

US-led Pacific trade framework may see results this year: USTR: Nikkei reports US Trade representative Tai says the goal is not to decouple from China.

‘Deeply frustrated': Florida legislators worn out by DeSantis: The governor didn’t wow DC. It’s not great in Tallahassee, either.?Politico

After high-flying start, DeSantis hits stumbling blocks on road to 2024: The governor, who began the year with momentum, is now confronting a considerably more difficult path as he prepares to launch a national campaign.?WP

DeSantis’s electability pitch wobbles, despite GOP losses under Trump: NYT reports the former president’s rivals are seeking to tap into Republican frustration with recent election disappointments to urge a new face for the party in 2024, but it is proving to be a tough sell.

‘I’m not a paid assassin’: Inside Chris Christie’s 2024 decision: Politico reports the former New Jersey governor is eager to take on Donald Trump. But he’s only running, he says, if he thinks he can win.

Biden summons big donors to Washington as 2024 campaign nears: The gathering is the latest in an intensifying series of planning moves ahead of Biden’s expected announcement of a re-election bid.?NYT

+ Top donors to President Biden have received a last-minute invitation to travel to Washington at the end of next week to see Biden as he gears up for a 2024 campaign, according to more than a half-dozen people who have been invited to or briefed on the event.

Why MillerKnoll CEO’s rant on bonuses put executives’ multi-million pay in focus: A video of the office furniture company CEO telling employees to quit worrying about whether or not they’ll get a bonus — and to instead buckle down and work harder — has struck a chord on social media amid heightened economic anxiety.?Work Shift

+ The head of the upmarket furniture-maker MillerKnoll Inc., known for its iconic Herman Miller office chairs, is under fire for telling employees to leave “pity city’’ and stop asking about bonuses.?

+ The 90-second leaked recording captures Owen chiding staff at the end of a 75-minute internal company meeting for speculating too much about the annual bonus payouts.

+ “Andi fiercely believes in this team and all we can accomplish together, and will not be dissuaded by a 90-second clip taken out of context and posted on social media,” MillerKnoll spokesperson Kris Marubio said in an emailed statement.

Take me down to the pity city

Where the grass is green and the girls are pretty

Take me home (oh, won't you please take me home)

Take me down to the pity city

Where the grass is green and the girls are pretty

Take me home (oh, won't you please take me home)

Honda and VW hedge bets on decoupling with China EV plants: Nikkei Major global automakers are boosting production of electric vehicles in China, hedging against the risk of supply chain disruptions amid bilateral tensions with the US. As the world's largest EV market, with sales estimated to reach 9 million vehicles this year, China is too big to ignore despite the geopolitical risks.

Hyundai Motor shoots for the moon with lunar rover: Nikkei reports South Korean group aims for a platform that can support digging for resources.

Russia releases first feature film shot in space: AFP reports the first feature film shot in space premiered in Russian cinemas on Thursday, as Moscow exulted in beating a rival Hollywood project amid a confrontation with the West.

IKEA to open 17 US stores in expansion drive: WSJ reports the furniture company is making its largest-ever investment in new American stores, betting on strong US demand for its flat-pack.

IKEA makes biggest investment in single country with €2bn US push: FT reports the world’s largest furniture retailer wants to win market share beyond Europe.

More meatballs and lingonberries coming to America.

Chip competition: The European Union has agreed to a $47 billion subsidy plan to bolster chip making in the bloc.

Amazon HQ2 was thought up pre-pandemic. But the world is hybrid now.?As the tech company requests its first subsidies from Virginia, construction delays and a slow return to the office are dimming the economic boost promised by its new headquarters.?WP

Google to deploy generative AI to create sophisticated ad campaigns: FT reports big tech groups are racing to incorporate the groundbreaking new technology into their products.

Large, creative AI models will transform lives and labor markets: They bring enormous promise and peril. But how do they work??Economist

+ Chatgpt embodies more knowledge than any human has ever known.

+ Running alongside this excitement is deep concern, inside the tech industry and beyond, that generative ai models are being developed too quickly. gpt-4 is a type of generative ai called a large language model (llm). Tech giants like Alphabet, Amazon and Nvidia have all trained their own llms, and given them names like palm, Megatron, Titan and Chinchilla.

+ Governments in America, Europe and China have all started mulling new regulations.?

Instagram to move majority of staff from London to New York: FT reports the decision comes less than eight months after the social media platform’s head, Adam Mosseri, relocated to the UK.

I thought the metaverse fixed this need for location...

Elon Musk needs journalists more than they need Twitter: The demand to pay for verified status on the platform poses a dilemma for media organizations. But they shouldn’t feed the troll.?Dave Lee

+ Twitter delivers only a fraction of traffic to news sites compared with Meta Platforms Inc.’s Facebook and what is known as “dark social” — things like email or WhatsApp messages where people might share news links — according to the analytics group Chartbeat, which uses aggregated referral data from 1,500 global news and media sites.

Sorry, weed probably does not make you more creative: In experiments, the work of light cannabis users was not rated as more creative than of nonusers.?Richard Sima

420 downer...

+ “Almost everyone thinks that cannabis makes them more creative. And it seems like that assumption is not supported by the data,” said Christopher Barnes, professor of organizational behavior at the University of Washington’s Foster School of Business and an author of the study.

2023 Champions League semi-finalists:

AC Milan

Inter Milan

Real Madrid

Manchester City

Semi-final matches:

May 9 @ 300 pm ET | Real Madrid v Manchester City

May 17 @ 300pm ET | Manchester City v Real Madrid

May 10 @ 300 pm ET | AC Milan v Inter Milan

May 16 @ 300 pm ET | Inter Milan v AC Milan

Final match:

June 10

Milan and Inter preparing for fireworks with Champions League derby: AFP reports the Milan derby will return to the center stage of European football when the Italian city's two giant clubs meet in what promises to be a fiery Champions League semi-final.

Nicole Lynn’s legacy as a sports agent has reached new level with Jalen Hurts deal?The Atheltic

+ Lynn has been with Klutch Sports Group since 2021 and was promoted to president of football operations for the agency founded by Rich Paul, who brought his own seat to the table of the world of NBA agents. Like Lynn, Paul once was an outsider in the sports business world. And like Paul, Lynn now is someone who has become synonymous with some of the biggest names in sports.

+ Lynn is a published author who connected with Hurts via Instagram to become his agent. Who needs a business card when a direct message will suffice?

French sailor Clarisse Cremer back at sea for 2024 Vendee Globe race: AFP reports French sailor Clarisse Cremer, who lost her sponsorship only months after the birth of her daughter, is back on course for the 2024 Vendee Globe, with Britain's Alex Thomson and a new partner on board.

Paris 2024: The US Olympic Team will open 'Team USA House' to fans at the 2024 Paris Olympics for the first time — allowing visitors to watch events and meet athletes.

Smart.

The?Oakland A's?have entered an agreement for land in Las Vegas — with plans to build a $1 billion, 35,000-seat ballpark. The MLB team has signed a binding deal for 49 acres of land owned by Red Rock Resorts.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc?

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal

Caracal produces ITK Daily.

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