ITK Daily | April 1

Happy Saturday.

Here’s today’s ITK Daily.

To be ITK, know this:?

Evan Gershkovich loved Russia, the country that turned on him: The Wall Street Journal correspondent, whose parents fled the Soviet Union, made Moscow a second home. He was detained by the FSB and charged with espionage, an allegation the Journal vehemently denies.?WSJ

+ Gershkovich, 31 years old, is the American son of Soviet-born Jewish exiles who had settled in New Jersey. He fell in love with Russia—its language, the people he chatted with for hours in regional capitals, the punk bands he hung out with at Moscow dive bars. Now, espionage charges leave him facing a possible prison sentence of up to 20 years.

+ His employer, colleagues and the Biden administration all deny Russia’s claim that he was spying on behalf of the U.S., and have called for his immediate release.?

+ Diplomats and legal experts see little hope Gershkovich, a reporter accredited by the Russian foreign ministry, will immediately be freed, given that espionage trials in Russia are conducted in secret and almost always end in a conviction.

+ His adopted Moscow was starting to fill with fear and paranoia. “Reporting on Russia is now also a regular practice of watching people you know get locked away for years,” he tweeted in July.

+ On one assignment, Gershkovich was followed by several Russian security officers, some of whom recorded his movements with a camera and pressured sources to not talk to him. He assumed his phone was monitored. On another trip, to the western region of Pskov, he was followed and filmed by unidentified men.

Moscow hadn’t accused a US reporter of spying since the Cold War — until this week?WP

+ It was the first time Moscow had formally accused a US journalist of being a spy in 36 years. For Russia experts and press freedom advocates, the arrest of an accredited foreign journalist on seemingly far-fetched espionage charges was an unwelcome echo of the Soviet Union’s tactics.

+ Since the mid-1970s, the CIA has officially prohibited the recruitment of agents from US news organizations. Some analysts say the seizure of Gershkovich is designed to give Moscow leverage in a potential prisoner swap with the United States.

When will it end? Russia and Ukraine make a recruitment push as they prepare for a long war.

Reuters: Embattled Macron heads to China, leaving burning Paris behind

SCMP: Macron to take French business leaders to China next week, despite EU calls to ‘de-risk’ ties

+ French President Emmanuel Macron hopes to strengthen economic and cultural ties with Beijing.

+ Several meetings with Xi Jinping are planned; one will include European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Bloomberg: Spanish premier urges Xi to talk to Ukraine on peace plan

+ The Spanish prime minister discussed Ukraine with Xi.

+ Macron, von der Leyen will meet Xi in Beijing next week.

Russia's Ukraine violations 'shockingly routine': UN Human Rights chief Volker Turk has said the number of civilian casualties in Russia's invasion of Ukraine far outstrips official figures.?DW

IMF approves $15.6 bn Ukraine loan package: AFP reports the International Monetary Fund has approved a $15.6 billion support package for Ukraine to assist with the conflict-hit country's economic recovery, the fund said in a statement Friday.

Why Britain’s Pacific trade deal is about more than just trade: UK seeks influence in a region increasingly dominated by China.?Politico

+ The UK accession to an 11-strong Pacific trade pact is about much more than just whisky tariffs and beef imports. It’s about post-Brexit Britain’s place in a 21st century dominated by the rise of China.

+ Formally announced in the early hours of Friday morning, Britain’s accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is being touted as the U.K.’s biggest trade achievement since leaving the EU in January 2020.

+ Britain has also secured “dialogue partner” status with the 10-strong Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN); joined a U.S.-led group boosting economic ties with Pacific island nations; and created a new Singapore-based arm of its development finance agency, British International Investment.

Inside the deal: How Britain joined CPTPP: Securing access to the Indo-Pacific pact marks the end of a significant chapter in the UK’s fledgling free trade agenda.?Politico

UK should stop China joining Indo-Pacific trade deal: Ex-PM tells POLITICO UK should ‘oppose any such proposal’ to let China join CPTPP. Politico

+ The UK must use its newfound membership of a major Indo-Pacific trade deal to stop China joining, former Prime Minister Liz Truss said.

+ Britain's drive to join the soon-to-be 12-nation bloc comes as part of a wider push foreign policy shift towards the Indo-Pacific, where China is increasingly active.

+ Fellow China hawk and backbench Tory Iain Duncan Smith agreed that the UK should work to keep Beijing out of the deal.

Malaysia's Anwar meets Xi, likely to seek China help for rail link: Nikkei reports despite pro-Western image, PM wants close Beijing ties to boost economy.

China truce with tech — for now: Worried about decelerating growth, Xi Jinping has launched a charm offensive to convince investors the country is open for business.?FT

+ For Beijing, the stakes are high. On the tech front, China needs to muster its most innovative companies if it is to compete in areas such as artificial intelligence with the US, with Washington also trying to restrict Beijing’s access to cutting-edge semiconductors.

AP: China’s global influence looms over Harris trip to Africa

WP: Taiwan, like Ukraine, is fighting for democracy, Tsai says in New York

+ House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries quietly met with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen Thursday in New York.

Japan and China set up hotline to prevent maritime, air clashes: Nikkei reports spring start eyed for new link between defense authorities.

US-led effort to wall off semiconductor tech draws in Japan: Nikkei reports chipmaking tool suppliers seek clarity on new controls while China condemns move.

America’s commercial sanctions on China could get much worse: And China could retaliate in kind.?Economist

Finland?cleared its last hurdle to joining NATO after Turkey approved its entry into the security alliance.?

Finland’s PM Sanna Marin faces reckoning at home: The prime minister is lauded abroad but cuts a polarising figure in her own country, jeopardizing chances of re-election.?FT

+ “Sanna Marin has two different images, said Hanna Wass, vice-dean of the University of Helsinki. “Internationally, she’s a superstar. In Finland, she’s more of a polarising figure.”

+ Finland might be on the verge of its biggest foreign policy change in decades with its imminent entry into NATO, but campaigning in the Nordic country has been more focused on typically Finnish economic debates.

+ Polling for Finland’s election has three parties, including prime minister Sanna Marin’s Social Democrats, in a statistical tie for the lead, with only the Finns Party gaining support since February.

2023 Finnish Parliamentary elections = Sunday, April 2, 2023

Germany's plan to reduce number of Bundestag seats causes concern among MPs: Le Monde reports after China's 2,980-member National People's Congress, Germany has the largest lower house of parliament.

Parisians like cake and a riot won’t stop them eating it?Adam Sage

+ “We have a tradition of contesting our leaders in the street,” said Arnaud Benedetti, associate professor at the Sorbonne University in Paris and editor-in-chief of La Revue Politique et Parlementaire, a quarterly political review. “We don’t have the same relationship to the state as you do in Britain and people expect it to intervene to protect them. When it doesn’t, they go out [on the streets] to remind their leaders what they should be doing.”

+ Macron says his plan is necessary to balance the books of a state pension system that will otherwise be running a multibillion-euro deficit by the end of the decade. He points out that even after his reform the French will retire notably earlier than their counterparts in almost all other European nations.

Italy blocks ChatGPT over data privacy concerns: Le Monde reports the Italian Data Protection Authority said it blocked access to the artificial intelligence because it did not respect user data and could not verify users' age.

A six-month AI pause? No, longer is needed: It’s crucial that we understand the dangers of this technology before it advances any further.?Peggy Noonan

+ Artificial intelligence is unreservedly advanced by the stupid (there’s nothing to fear, you’re being paranoid), the preening (buddy, you don’t know your GPT-3.4 from your fine-tuned LLM), and the greedy (there is huge wealth at stake in the world-changing technology, and so huge power).

+ Everyone else has reservations and should.

+ It is being developed with sudden and unanticipated speed; Silicon Valley companies are in a furious race. The whole thing is almost entirely unregulated because no one knows how to regulate it or even precisely what should be regulated. Its complexity defeats control.

+ Henry Kissinger described the technology as breathtaking in its historic import: the biggest transformation in the human cognitive process since the invention of printing in 1455.?

+ The men who invented the internet, all the big sites, and what we call Big Tech—that is to say, the people who gave us the past 40 years—are now solely in charge of erecting the moral and ethical guardrails for AI. This is because they are the ones creating AI.

+ Of course AI’s development should be paused, of course there should be a moratorium, but six months won’t be enough. Pause it for a few years. Call in the world’s counsel, get everyone in. Heck, hold a World Congress.

+ But slow this thing down. We are playing with the hottest thing since the discovery of fire.

The contradictions of Sam Altman, AI crusader: The CEO behind ChatGPT navigates the line between developing artificial intelligence on the cutting edge and pushing technology to dystopia.?WSJ

Why gradualists are usually right and radicals are wrong: “Gradual” makes a passionate and convincing argument for incrementalism.?Economist

Virgin Orbit to lay off 85 percent of staff, freeze operations: WP reports founded by Richard Branson in 2017, the sister company to Virgin Galactic has struggled since it went public two years ago.

Netflix?revamped its film division, as the streaming giant prepares to make fewer movies to cut costs.

Dior heads to Mumbai as luxury brands ramp up destination shows: FT reports the French maison put on an extravagant Pre-Fall show to woo its high-spending ‘Very Important Clients.’

World’s richest man eyes India’s luxury market with landmark Dior show: The elegant label is the first fashion house to unveil a new collection in India.?Bloomberg

+ Christian Dior SE showcased its Fall 2023 collection in Mumbai on March 30, becoming the first fashion house to unveil the latest lines in India as luxury brands tap new markets in a hunt for their next billions.?

+ India currently has 119 billionaires, according to Oxfam, with the country estimated to produce 70 new millionaires every day between 2018 and 2022.?

+ “It’s a hugely untapped market with middle class on the rise and lots more and lots more, by the year, millionaires,” says Deborah Aitken, senior analyst for luxury goods at Bloomberg Intelligence. “It’s vibrant, it’s new design, new color, new technologies into the luxury space, which is hugely needed.”

No, cities aren’t doomed because of remote work?Alissa Walker

+ Offices are only 55 percent occupied and transit ridership hovers at 62 percent, changing the way business districts function and creating enormous financial angst for the city and state.

Is coffee bringing people back to the office??Data show workers are staying in the office for coffee, and here’s why it may be part of return-to-office strategies.?Bloomberg

+ What’s new today is the way the office is aiming to emulate the coffee house in-house.?

+ Coffee consumption is rising while office use has halved in cities like New York compared to before the pandemic.

+ Global green bean exports in November 2022 totaled 9.2 million bags up 10.8% from the same month of the previous year, according to the International Coffee Organization.

It’s the end of the weekend as we know it: The trade-off for flexible midweek schedules and hybrid offices is a seven-day workweek, many professionals say.?WSJ

+ When the pandemic began, many professionals stuck at home opened their laptops on Saturday mornings. They just never stopped: Saturdays and Sundays are starting to resemble Monday through Friday, with hours of emailing and stretches of catch-up time.

+ A new study of 134,260 employees across more than 900 organizations by the workforce-analytics software firm ActivTrak found that people now work an average of 6.6 hours on the weekend, up 5% from 2021.

Homebuyers chase their European dreams despite economic outlook: High inflation and rising borrowing costs may have put off some, but these buyers are undeterred.?FT

Millennials pay for a dose of ’90s nostalgia: At the second annual 90s Con, aging millennials traveled from across the United States to connect with the stars of their youth.?NYT

I used AI to bet on horse-racing. Here’s what happened: How computer-assisted betting took over the sport of kings.?FT

+ As he accompanied me around the Gulfstream grounds, McKeever hawked his artificially intelligent app, called EquinEdge, to the old-timers, the tourists, me and anyone else who would listen. His new venture is a recent arrival to an ancient sport now awash in AI-assisted technology.

+ Some $12bn was bet on horse races in the US in 2021, according to the Jockey Club, a thoroughbred industry group.?

+ Collectively known as computer-assisted wagerers, or CAWs, they are largely anonymous.

+ Horseracing in the US operates on a pari-mutuel system: all the money bet on a given race is put into a digital pool, the track takes a large cut (typically around 20 per cent) and the rest of the money is distributed to the winners. They’re playing against each other, not the house.

+ Andy Beyer’s central hypothesis was that horses’ speed matters and can be quantified.

+ Beyer marvels at the CAWs’ sophistication and icy devotion to the science of the sport.

+ The most prolific of the computer syndicates are members of the Elite Turf Club, a company based in Cura?ao, the island tax haven in the Dutch Caribbean.?

+ Only about 20 people in the world have active accounts with Elite.

+ The bulk of this Elite money is wagered from two accounts, called “Elite Turf Club 17” and “Elite Turf Club 2”. These two people alone, and whomever they employ, may account for nearly 20 per cent of all horse-race betting in the US, according to a Financial Times analysis of wagering data.

+ In the past two decades, adjusting for inflation, total betting on US horseracing from the general public decreased 63 percent.

+ "There’s some shit going on that just doesn’t show up in the algorithm. That’s why people still love [horse racing]."

+ Two broad strategies employed by CAWs. One is pure arbitrage. By closely monitoring the betting pools, one can sometimes spot naked inefficiencies — between the win and exacta pools, for example — and exploit them. The other is amassing gobs of data via existing databases and web-scraping, then analysing it to calculate a horse’s true odds and comparing that to its pari-mutuel price.?

WP: Wimbledon reverses ban on Russian and Belarusian players

AFP: Wimbledon lifts ban on Russian, Belarusian players, to compete as 'neutrals'

The Indian Premier League is taking over global cricket: India’s lucrative domestic contest is strangling international contests.?Economist

The geopolitics of sport, cricket edition.

+ Only 15 years after its launch, India’s biggest domestic cricket contest, which begins its annual rendition on March 31st, has become, by one measure, the world’s second-most lucrative sports league after America’s National Football League (NFL).?

+ The sale of five-year media rights to the IPL, which uses the fast-paced Twenty20 (T20) cricket format, raised $6.2bn last year for its organizer, the Board of Control for Cricket in India.?

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc?

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal

Caracal produces ITK Daily.

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