Italy Reduces Open Cases 3rd Consecutive Day

Apr 23 20 - Rem COVID-19 Report #32

For the regions I'm tracking, here's what I'm seeing, for the past 36 days:

Worldwide.  New cases Tuesday were down appreciably, to 63.5K, the lowest in a week. Total recoveries appear to have been overreported by Bing this morning; their figure of 784.8K would have been an increase of nearly 100K, when run rates have been in the high 20Ks to mid 30Ks. I added up the ~ 215 countries, and tallied 717.4K total – a much more reasonable 30.7K for yesterday’s figure. Deaths of 5.9K were about 10% better than the past week’s average of 6.6K.

#1 United States. New cases were up yesterday, to 29.0K, though still below the 30.2K average over the past week. With 855K cases, the 4+% growth rate is maintaining a course for 1MM sometime next week. Recoveries of 2.8K marks the third day in a row in the 2000s, below the average of 3.7K over the past week. Deaths of 2.6K were just slightly above the past week’s average.

#1.1 New York State (US).  Recorded 5,741 new cases on Wednesday, the highest figure and first uptick over the past 3 days. New York’s 7-day average growth rate is 3.0%. There were no deaths or recoveries noted in the cumulative data.

#2 Spain. Again had an increase yesterday, to 4.2K new cases, above their past weekly average of just under 4.0K. The 3.4K recoveries calculated were nearly double the daily average of 1.9K the past week. The 435 deaths were nearly on the weekly daily average of 415.

#3. Italy.  New cases of 3,370 were up for the second day in a row, higher than the weekly average of 3,167. Total resolutions of 3,380 were just slightly higher, as 2,943 recoveries and 437 deaths were recorded. Thus for the third day in a row, Italy’s Simple CrossOver was over 100%, meaning a net reduction in open cases.

#8 China Mainland. Three consecutive days now, of no change in the Chinese reporting. About 2,000 cases remain open and unresolved, of their 88.4K total.

I will continue tracking the data and post further updates.

David L. Remington

April 23, 2020

Background: At the intersection of intellectual curiosity and self-interest, I've been studying to data my own way, the past several days, regarding the COVID-19 outbreak.

Specifically, I'm curious about a couple things:

1. How do recoveries compare to new cases? I read a few weeks ago, this was considered a key inflection point, in the tide turning of the outbreak's reach.

2. How do the United States numbers compare to Italy's? I've heard varying assessments, that we're on a XX day lag. I want to track for myself what the data says.

Method: every morning, I generally wake up between 5:00 and 6:00 US East Coast time. I snap screen shots from the Bing website data.

I collect 3 data points: Confirmed Cases, Deaths, and Recoveries.

I calculate daily data as follows. If you're an accountant by trade like myself, this "Inventory" or "Cost of Production" model will look familiar from 101 or 201:

Yesterday's Open Cases

+ New Cases

= Total Open Cases Yesterday

- Deaths Yesterday

- Recoveries Yesterday

= This Morning's Open Cases

This helps me track what happened over the past ~ 24 hours, or "yesterday".