The Italian Edge Case: Is Behavior an Obstacle to Autonomous Vehicle Adoption?

I recently enjoyed a week’s vacation in Italy. My family and I walked, ate, drank and shopped our way through central Rome, Capri, Amalfi, Positano and Ravello. It had been over 25 years since we lived in Europe and my last visit to Italy. On the flight back I reflected a bit on what I had observed about how people got around, and wondered whether autonomous vehicles could ever play a role in the communities I visited. Short answer: Probably not, mainly because of experience based vs. rule based behaviors. 

We spent a lot of time on foot, took advantage of the Trenitalia high speed Frecciarossa rail system, coastal ferries, local buses and an occasional private hired car or taxi. Central Rome is generally flat, but the terrain on Capri and the Amalfi coast is steep, the roads are very narrow and windy, and those hugging the coast have vertigo inducing low stone and metal rail barriers.  

Here are some observations about mobility infrastructure and behaviors:

·      Dense multi-mode mobility: Pedestrians, motor scooters, bicycles, cars, buses, and small commercial vehicles all operate in the same areas,

·      Most of the plazas and town streets are made of basalt blocks (rough on stand up micro scooters and bicycles, though fat-tire bikes seemed to do OK),

·      The roads are narrow with numerous odd angle intersections, mini roundabouts and rotaries; no grids here,

·      Roadway markings and signage are sparse to non-existent,

·      The car fleet is mostly class A or B segment vehicles (Fiat 500, Opel Corsa, Ford Fiesta, Smart Fourtwo) with a few micro-vehicles (Renault Twizzy), but larger C – D segment premium vehicles were also in the mix,

·      Most cars, taxis and small commercial vehicles are diesel powered with manual transmissions,

·      In some areas it seemed the motor scooter to car ratio may have been as much as 2:1; I was surprised to see old 2-cycle Vespas still in use,

·      Parking is wherever there is space, regardless of street markings, with most motor scooters and some cars parked perpendicular to the road,

·      Taxis operate out of designated stations, some on a reservation basis, rather than troll for rides 

My main observation is that mobility in these communities is experience-based rather than rules-based. I’m sure there are rules, but people have learned that if followed to the letter, the system would slow down, so they treat the rules as loose guidelines. Gaps between vehicles in traffic are quickly filled by motor scooters, and pauses during a turn or at an intersection are taken as yielding right of way. Italian mobility is like jazz improvisation vs. Germany’s ordered orchestration. This isn’t a criticism of Italy or Italian drivers. The system works! It works because the types of vehicles in use and the behaviors of car / motor scooter / bus drivers, bicyclists and pedestrians fit the environment, and everyone has learned how to behave in the system. Even the tourists seem to catch on quickly.

A lot of recent mobility conference talk and studies about the potential for high-level autonomous vehicles seem to focus on how rules based analytics and advanced AI can create safe driverless mobility. Modeling, dealing with edge cases, and validating software for operational robustness are frequently cited as core issues to be resolved if AVs are ever to scale. Compared to Germany, Japan and much of the US, the areas of Italy I visited seemed like one big edge case. 

I believe AVs can, should, and will play an important role in mobility systems. The trip to Italy reminded me that adoption will be harder in some parts of the planet than in others.