Issues to be Discussed Related to the Negotiations of a Ceasefire Arrangement and a Lasting Peace and Security Agreement to End the War in Ukraine

?By Jorge Morales Pedraza

????? The war in Ukraine has been going on for more than 17 months now, and there are no signs of stopping it through a military victory by the Ukrainian armed forces or diplomatic negotiations, at least in the short term. Why? On the one hand, the Ukrainian government insists on a military victory to expel Russian troops from all occupied territories, but this military victory has not been achieved and, in my opinion, will not be achieved this year. On the other, the Russian government has already rejected the Ukrainian conditions put forward by President Zelenski to stop the war and use it during future negotiations to end it. Besides, Russian troops have rejected until today the Ukrainian military offensive launched in the summer of this year.

??? The fighting situation on the ground right now does not favor Ukraine since the offensive launched to expel Russian troops from the occupied territories has only managed to recover after four months of the offensive, less than 1% of that territory, and what is extremely important, the Ukrainian government has already committed the Ukrainian strategic reserves units prepared and armed by the U.S. and NATO to reach the objectives set up by the Ukrainian government in its summer offensive. For this reason, the Ukrainian government has no additional fresh units trained and equipped to achieve the objectives approved by the Ukrainian government for the 2023 summer military offensive.

???? Under these circumstances, what should be done to stop the fighting? There are two alternatives. One is to prolong the war without any assurance that the Ukrainian armed forces will expel all Russian troops from the occupied territories. The second is to search for a diplomatic solution to end the war as soon as possible and before any new Russian offensive campaign that could end up occupying more territories, as is happening now in some areas along the front line, or before the supply of financial resources and military equipment and ammunition by the U.S., the E.U., and NATO is stopped for various reasons.

????? Without a doubt, the prolongation of the war in Ukraine and the outcome of the Ukrainian offensive launched in the summer of 2023 has hardened the position of the Russian government and reduced its interest in negotiating a Ceasefire Arrangement.

???? Why the international community should push the Ukrainian and Russian governments to search for a diplomatic solution to end the war in Ukraine? The war in Ukraine is escalating dangerously with an increased combat intensity on the ground, the supply of additional heavy and offensive weapons by the U.S. and NATO countries, including long-range missile and combatant aircraft and its possible use for attacking Russian territory, including Moscow, as has happened before but with very little impact on the war, an alarming level of destruction of the Ukrainian infrastructure, a high number of civilians and military personnel killed and wounded on both sides and a high number of Ukrainian civilians displaced, among others. Besides, the Ukraine war is affecting the economy of many countries worldwide, including those that promoted sanctions against Russia for beginning the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and, of course, the? Russian economy itself, the target of the sanctions adopted, but without reaching the desired level.

???? If the war continues and becomes a war of attrition, as is happening now, then Ukraine has everything to lose. Why? These are the reasons:

·???????? First, the Ukrainian government finds it difficult to recruit, equip, and train new soldiers, forcing the government to reduce to the minimum the recruitment exceptions and asking other countries to expel Ukrainians under military age living in these countries;

·???????? Second, it depends on the supply of weapons and ammunition from the U.S. and NATO, and both sides have already indicated that they have many difficulties in replacing the destroyed military equipment and supplying the ammunition consumed daily by the Ukrainian army;

·???????? Third, its economy has not already collapsed due to the injection of around 200,000 million dollars from the U.S. and the European Union since February 2022, but the level of this aid begins to decline due to an increase in taxpayers' rejection of the war, due to the economic difficulties they are already suffering, and now as a consequence of the war declared by the Israeli government to HAMAS for its attack to the Israeli territory and the financial and military support that the U.S. will provide to support Israel's war efforts, among others.

????? History has shown that all wars end in one way or another at a negotiating table. The war in Ukraine will not be an exception, and the faster this reality is accepted by all parties involved, particularly Ukraine, the U.S., the U.E., and NATO, the better for the Ukrainian people and the rest of the world. If the fight is stopped, then the number of deaths and injuries will also be stopped; the destruction of civil infrastructure in Ukraine, which is already very high, will stop; the suffering of the innocent Ukrainian people will also stop, and the tensions and economic difficulties associated with this war that are affecting many countries that have nothing to do with this war will disappear.

Issues to be Discussed During the Negotiations of a Ceasefire Arrangement

???? Depending on the context, Ceasefire Arrangements may seek, according to the United Nations sources, to address a small number or a wide range of issues, such as:

·???????? The protection of civilians and human rights;

·???????? The status of combatants, their weapons, and their ammunition;

·???????? Interim or transitional security arrangements;

·???????? Interim or transitional governance arrangements;

·???????? Humanitarian coordination and arrangements.

???? In formulating an initial agenda for ceasefire negotiations – with facilitative support from the mediator – parties try to build consensus around the scope of a potential Ceasefire Arrangement, the issues to be addressed, and the sequence in which they will be negotiated. They should also agree on modalities for negotiating contentious issues and resolving disputes. While an initially agreed agenda for negotiating a Ceasefire Arrangement provides a general direction, the conflict parties may expand it and introduce changes throughout the negotiation process as long as all parties accept them.

???? The format and final contents of a Ceasefire Arrangement depend on the outcomes of negotiations on all issues, based on the agenda initially agreed between the parties and possibly modified during the talks. Without a doubt, a formalized Ceasefire Arrangement that clearly articulates all negotiation outcomes in detail and an agreed sequence helps build trust and encourage compliance. A Ceasefire Arrangement is more likely to be sustainable if it clarifies signatory parties and identifies other parties associated with, under the control of, or aligned with them.

The following elements can strengthen a Ceasefire Agreement:

·???????? Identification of the signatory conflict parties and their allies;

·???????? Clearly stated joint principles, objectives of the ceasefire, and definitions to promote a common understanding of the terms used. Reaching an agreement on a ceasefire's objectives, principles, and definitions can build trust among the parties and provide momentum for negotiating other ceasefire-related issues;

·???????? Clarity on the geography of ceasefire areas, including the type and sources of maps used in all negotiation stages. To be effective, a Ceasefire Arrangement requires clarity and agreement on the geographical areas it applies to. Geospatial information and technology can provide details and context with respect to the natural and built-up environments where a conflict has occurred. Maps and imagery (satellite imagery and aerial photographs) can also help increase situational awareness and resolve issues through realistic visualization. Mutual consent is required on the type, scale, and source of maps that may be referenced in the arrangement text and used during implementation. A useful tool for facilitating technical discussions and coordination is a common "planning map," which can be updated based on verified information from the parties;

·???????? Modalities for regulating, controlling, and managing military forces, including the separation, disengagement, and redeployment of combatant units, weapons, and ammunition. The regulation, management, and control of combat forces and weapons can involve a range of modalities. While a ceasefire seeks to break contact between military forces to reduce the risk of incidents or further conflict, it does not necessarily require the separation or movement of all military forces. In some cases, the forces may be "frozen in situ" at their last-known or last-held positions; in others, a ceasefire may call for the physical separation of military forces (for example, gradually along the front lines). The parties may use different terms to describe the management of forces, including disengagement, withdrawal, redeployment, demarcation of areas of control or zones, assembly, cantonment, and concentration of military forces. The choice of terms is guided by cultural, regional, and contextual factors; some terms may be culturally or politically sensitive in certain contexts.

Key considerations with respect to the regulation, control, and management of weapon systems include:

o?? The information required to prepare a framework for weapon and munitions control and means for gathering this information;

o?? The effects of topography or terrain on weapon mobility, ranges, and munitions (regarding use and stability);

o?? The geographical areas covered by weapon control, physical routes available for the redeployment or regrouping of weapons, potential weapon storage locations, and related supervision;

o?? The types and quantities of weapons and ammunition that need to be immobilized, rendered safe, or destroyed on site;

o?? The monitoring systems required for weapon control and the resources needed to establish them;

o?? The scale of planning maps, as well as the methods and styles for marking them up, including agreement on color codes, symbols, and signs;

o?? The potential utility of reciprocity regarding weapon control as a means of balancing demands on the conflict parties;

o?? The technical expertise required to mediate and implement weapon control.

·???????? Monitoring and verification modalities and mechanisms designed to enable effective political oversight and to strengthen compliance and accountability;

·???????? Mechanisms and modalities for dispute resolution and de-escalation, with clear lines of communication and information sharing;

·???????? Interim, transitional, and final security arrangements and their links to other transitional governance mechanisms and bodies.

???? Based on what has been said above, in my opinion, the following are the most important issues to be discussed by Ukrainian and Russian authorities to seek a Ceasefire Arrangement to stop all military actions on the ground, sea, and air:

a)????? The selection of a mediator. Russian and Ukrainian authorities should agree on selecting a mediator, or more than one if necessary, and its role during the negotiations of the Ceasefire Arrangement;

b)????? The selection of an international organization to supervise the implementation of the Ceasefire Arrangement. The selection of an international organization for the supervision of the implementation of the Ceasefire Arrangement is an important task that both countries should agree on at the beginning of the negotiation process;

c)????? Principles, objectives, and definitions to be used during the Ceasefire Arrangement negotiations. All principles, objectives, and definitions of the different terms used during the negotiations of the Ceasefire Arrangement should be agreed upon by the Russian and Ukrainian governments at the beginning of the negotiations and reflected in the final text of the Arrangement;

d)????? Stop the fighting. Date and time to stop all military operations by Russia and Ukraine's military forces on the ground, air, and sea, supervised by the international organization selected;

e)????? Prisoners of war. Date, time, and modalities for the exchange of prisoners of war under the supervision of the international organization selected or the United Nations;

f)?????? Return of the Ukrainian refugees. Mechanism for the return of Ukraine refugees who wish to do so, including their return to occupied zones by Russia, under the supervision of the international organization selected or the United Nations;

g)????? Forced exile of civilians. Mechanism to investigate, under the supervision of the United Nations or the competent international organization, the forced exile of Ukrainian civilians, particularly children, as a result of the war and to identify the responsible for these actions;

h)????? Stop the supply of weapons to Ukrainian troops. After agreeing on the date and time to stop all military operations by Russia and Ukraine's military forces on the ground, air, and sea, all supplies of weapons to the Ukraine army by the U.S., NATO, the E.U., and any other country should stop, including the supply of weapons produced by the Ukrainian government itself. Russia and Ukraine should also agree on the modalities to be used by the international organization or the United Nations to supervise the implementation of this agreement and to the replacement of certain types of weapons and military equipment when necessary;

i)?????? Stop the supply of weapons to Russian troops. After agreeing on the date and time to stop all military operations by Russia and Ukraine's military forces on the ground, air, and sea, the Russian government should stop the supply of military equipment to the Russian army in the occupied regions and agreed on the modalities to be used by the international organization or the United Nations to supervise the implementation of this agreement and the replacement of certain types of weapons and military equipment when necessary;

j)?????? The establishment of a Demilitarized or Security Zone. Both governments should discuss the need to establish a Demilitarized or Security Zone along the front line and how the international organization selected, or the United Nations, will supervise the establishment and activities in this zone in close coordination with the Russian and Ukrainian military and government authorities. The agreement reached on this important issue should clearly indicate the boundary and area of the Demilitarized or Security Zone to be established and the responsibilities of the parties involved;

k)????? Deployment of weapons and military equipment in the Demilitarized or Security Zone. Both governments should agree on the type of weapons and military equipment that can be deployed within the Demilitarized or Security Zone, the number of troops to be deployed in this zone, and the precise places where these troops and military equipment should be deployed. The international organization selected, or the United Nations, should supervise the implementation of this part of the agreement;

l)?????? Movement of troops and military equipment within the Demilitarized or Security Zone. Both governments should accept the obligation to inform the international organization selected, or the United Nations, supervising the implementation of the Ceasefire Arrangement of any indispensable movement of troops and military equipment within this zone. Russian and Ukrainian military authorities should provide all necessary information on the indispensable movement of troops and military equipment within the Demilitarized and Security Zone in order to allow the international organization or the United Nations the supervision of these movements;

m)?? Humanitarian assistance to civilians. Both governments should allow and support the provision of humanitarian assistance by the United Nations and by any ONG to the population living in cities and towns located in the Ukrainian territory, including the occupied regions by Russia, in close coordination with the United Nations, Russian and Ukrainian authorities;

n)????? Possible role of the United Nations Security Council. Both governments should discuss and agree on the possible role of the United Nations Security Council in ensuring the implementation of the Ceasefire Arrangement by all parties and in consideration of any serious violations of the Ceasefire Arrangement by the parties;

o)????? United Nations peacekeeping forces. The possible deployment of United Nations peacekeeping forces along the front line after defining the boundary and area of the Demilitarized and Security Zone is an issue that needs to be discussed by both governments. If approved, then both governments and the United Nations Security Council should agree upon the deployment of a United Nations peacekeeping force, the role of these forces, and the period for their deployment;

p)????? Interim, transitional, and final security arrangements. Interim, transitional, and final security arrangements and their links to other transitional governance mechanisms and bodies should be discussed and agreed by the Russian and Ukrainian governments;

q)????? Solution of disputes. Russian and Ukrainian governments should discuss and agree on the procedures to be followed for the solution of disputes and the role of the international organization and the United Nations Security Council on this issue, if any;

r)?????? Duration of the Ceasefire Arrangement and its extension. The duration of the Ceasefire Arrangement and the procedure to be followed by the Russian and Ukrainian authorities for extending the validity of the Ceasefire Arrangement should be discussed and agreed upon by both governments.

Issues to be Discussed During the Negotiation Process of a Lasting Peace and Security Agreement

???? Some of the issues that should be discussed during the negotiations of a Lasting Peace and Security Agreement are, among others, the following:

1.????? Principles, objectives, and definitions to be used during the Lasting Peace and Security Agreement negotiations. All principles, objectives, and definitions of the different terms used during the negotiations should be agreed upon by the Russian and Ukrainian governments at the beginning of the negotiations and reflected in the final text of the Agreement;

2.????? Ukrainian neutrality and security. All parties involved in the Ukrainian war should agree on Ukraine's neutrality, specifically the Ukrainian government. The current and future Ukrainian governments should not insist on becoming NATO members while the Lasting Peace and Security Agreement is in force. At the same time, NATO as an organization should not insist on inviting Ukraine to become a NATO member while the Lasting Peace and Security Agreement is in force. An agreement should also be reached about the security of Ukraine in the future, how this security will be provided and by whom, and how to deal with any violations of this agreement by any of the parties, including the possible role to be played by the United Nations Security Council;

3.????? Russian legitimate security interest. All issues related to Russian security and how these security interests will be respected by the U.S., NATO, the E.U., and Ukraine should be discussed and agreed upon between all parties involved. An agreement should also be reached on how this understanding should be reflected in the Lasting Peace and Security Agreement to be adopted to end the Ukrainian war or in an independent document to be signed by the U.S., NATO, the E.U., Russia, and Ukraine and included as a reference in the Lasting Peace and Security Agreement to be negotiated among all parties;

4.????? NATO expansion toward the Russian borders. This is one of the most sensitive issues to be discussed between NATO and Russia in parallel to the Lasting Peace and Security Agreement negotiations. NATO should freeze its expansion toward the Russian borders and define the role to be played by NATO members with borders with Russia within the military strategy of the organization. At the same time, Russia should identify actions to be implemented to avoid a possible escalation of tensions and a conflict with NATO members, particularly those with borders with Russia. To ensure the validity of the agreement reached on this important issue, representatives of NATO and Russia should negotiate a parallel agreement in establishing a Demilitarized or Security Zone in NATO countries with borders with Russia and Russian territories with borders with NATO countries. An agreement should also be reached on the number of troops and type of offensive weapons that can be deployed within the Demilitarized or Security zone, excluding all types of nuclear weapons, and the mechanism to be used to verify the implementation of this agreement by all parties;

5.????? The redeployment of military forces along the border between Russia and Ukraine. A limited number of Russian and Ukrainian troops and offensive military equipment should be deployed in the Demilitarized or Security zone to be established along the borders of both countries, as well as the prohibition of the deployment within this zone of all types of offensive weapons, including nuclear weapons and the deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine. Russian and Ukrainian negotiators should agree on the mechanism to be used for the supervision of the implementation of this important agreement and how this will be supervised;

6.????? Final status of the Crimean Peninsula, the Donbas, Zaporiyia, and Jerson regions. This is another sensitive issue to be discussed between the Russian and Ukrainian governments. The final status of these regions should be based on the history and free choice of the population living in these regions. There are four possible alternatives:

·???????? The first is to give the Ukrainian government sovereignty over these regions, according to the 1991 borders. The Russian government has already rejected this alternative.

·???????? The second is to provide full autonomy to these regions under Ukrainian sovereignty, according to the Minsk Agreements. This was a good solution before February 2022, but, in my opinion, it is no longer a valid one.

·???????? The third one is to accept Russia's sovereignty and control of these regions. The Ukrainian government has already rejected this alternative.

·???????? The fourth one is to put these four regions provisionally under the United Nations' control until the United Nations organizes a referendum on the sovereignty of these four regions in cooperation with the authorities of Ukraine and Russia. This is a possible and realistic solution to this sensitive issue because it respects the aspirations of the populations living in these four regions.

The referendum in each of these four regions under the supervision of the United Nations should be carried out within six months after the entry into force of the Lasting Peace and Security Agreement. The outcome of these referendums should be mandatory for the Russian and Ukrainian governments;

7.????? The prohibition of ultranationalists and neo-Nazi groups to participate in the government, security, and armed forces. The Ukrainian parliament should approve, three months after entry into force of the Lasting Peace and Security Agreement,? a law prohibiting ultranationalists and neo-Nazi groups from being part of the Ukrainian government, army, and security forces;

8.????? Adoption of new laws by the Ukrainian parliament. These new laws should, on the one hand, obligate the Ukrainian government to remove all monuments, symbols, and references to people who maintained outstanding participation in supporting the Nazi occupation of Ukraine during the Second World War and in the slaughter of innocent people, including Jews, members of minorities living in the country as well as innocent people of neighboring countries and, on the other, to remove all laws in force which are considered discriminatory to the Ukrainian minorities living in the country;

9.????? Return to their home countries of all volunteers and international combatants. The return to their home countries of all volunteers and international combatants who are now fighting along with the Ukrainian military forces should be carried out immediately after the entry into force of the Ceasefire Arrangement following a procedure that the Ukrainian government should adopt under the supervision of the United Nations or the international organization selected;

10.? The role of the mediator, the United Nations Security Council, and any other international organization involved in the implementation of the Agreement. The role of the mediator or mediators to be selected, as well as the role of the United Nations Security Council and any other international organization involved in the implementation of the Agreement, should be discussed and agreed upon by the Russian and Ukrainian governments;

11.? Reconstruction of the country's civil infrastructure, buildings, industries, hospitals, and schools destroyed by the war. The Lasting Peace and Security Agreement should include the participation of Russia, Ukraine, the U.S., the E.U., NATO, and other countries and organizations in the reconstruction of the country's civil infrastructure, buildings, industries, hospitals, and schools destroyed by the war, located in Ukraine and the occupying regions by Russia and the resources that each country and organization should provide for this purpose;

12.? Elimination of sanctions. All sanctions adopted since 2014 by the U.S., the E.U., and other Western countries against Russia for its role in the Ukrainian war should be withdrawn immediately after the entry into force of the Lasting Peace and Security Agreement;

13.? Restore of Russian rights. To restore Russian rights to be part of all European and international organizations, forums, and systems that were expelled as a result of its role in the Ukraine war if the Russian government wishes to do so immediately after the entry into force of the Lasting Peace and Security Agreement;

14.? Unfreeze all Russian reserve funds in Western countries. Immediately after the entry into force of the Lasting Peace and Security Agreement, all sanctions related to Russian reserves funds frozen by Western countries due to sanctions adopted against Russia for its aggression on Ukraine should be unfrozen by all Western countries and returned to Russia. In case part of these frozen funds have been used without Russian authorization, it should be fully returned to Russia;

15.? Crime of war investigations. During the negotiations of the Lasting Peace and Security Agreement, all legal issues associated with the Russian and Ukrainian military forces' behavior and denounced during the war, including investigating all actions carried out by Russian and Ukrainian troops that could be considered war crimes, should be discussed between Russia, Ukraine, and the United Nations and a mechanism to be used to implement the agreement reached on this issue should be adopted by all parties.

???? The key issue in this process is agreeing on when the Ukraine war will end. All efforts must be exhausted to agree on this key issue immediately.