In this issue: Tipping points for heavy industry; Cement and Concrete – new sector transition strategy; Green steel Implementation Lab

Signal from MPP | Issue No. 2311-10?

In this issue: Faster than you think – tipping points for heavy industry; Cement and Concrete – new sector transition strategy; Green steel Implementation Lab – save the date.

WITH THE NEXT COP set to kick off today in Dubai, our friends at Global Optimism have done stellar work to assemble evidence that the “conviction, scale and speed” to tackle the climate crisis are hiding in plain sight. In #aheadofthecurve, a broad campaign against the perception of inertia implied by the annual pre-COP Global Stocktakes, their fresh summary of sector narratives aims to inform contributions to COP from a diverse mix of civil society groups highlighting the signals of change that can go unnoticed. For details, check out #Ahead of the Curve Xpress on LinkedIn.?

In hard-to-abate sectors, the evidence is mounting that Tipping Points for direct and indirect electrification and other green technologies are within reach in this decade, if policy, finance, and businesses rally around unlocking first projects.??

Cement and steel are prime examples. On Monday, we’ll launch our long-awaited Concrete and Cement Transition Strategy, co-developed with industry groups to chart a viable, real-world decarbonisation pathway for one of the most emitting industry sectors. We’re also excited to co-convene a COP28 Implementation Lab on December 5, when a panel of experts will explore opportunities for low- and near-zero emissions steel in emerging economies, with a spotlight on India.??

Acting now to foster collaboration between governments and non-state actors is key to scaling the green value chains that will unlock investment in First Projects, hence accelerating industrial decarbonisation. On that front, there’s a big announcement from COP – and a new mandate for MPP -- in the pipeline, albeit still embargo-ed as this edition of Signal flies into the ether. Watch this space! ?

As always, thank you for sharing this newsletter. Don’t hesitate to get in touch.?

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Mission Possible Partnership is?a movement of climate leaders in business and civil society driving industrial decarbonisation across the entire value chain of the world’s highest-emitting sectors: aluminium, cement, chemicals, steel; aviation, shipping, and trucking. We’re charting the inventive steps and radical collaboration to enable commercial-scale First Projects in this decisive decade. Please comment, send feedback or message us with insights.?

1. #AheadOfTheCurve

Hard-to-abate sectors can reach tipping points in this decade???

Experience from electricity and road transport points to possibility of an S-curve transition???

FASTER THAN YOU THINK is an apt description of recent momentum in the deployment of clean technologies to decarbonise easier-to-abate sectors, in particular solar energy and electric vehicles, signalling hope that heavy-emitting industry and transport sectors can follow similar paths in the near future. Falling costs for renewables are driving deployment of green technologies, powered by direct or indirect electrification.?

A low-cost, low-carbon power sector will help drive down emissions in many heavy industry and transport sectors too. Analysis by MPP indicates that electrolytic green hydrogen production (powered by renewables) will play a crucial role in delivering cleaner aviation and maritime fuels, and reducing emissions from chemicals and steel. In tandem, carbon capture and storage is set to play a larger role in cement and concrete production. MPP’s new concrete and cement transition strategy will be published next month (see below).?

• History shows that adoption of new technologies is exponential, even in energy infrastructure – think oil and gas pipelines build-up – and industrial assets – like the deployment of blast furnaces for steel production.?
• Exponential deployment is in prospect for green industry and transport too, despite long asset lifetimes and complex value chains.?
• Low-cost renewables and hydrogen constitute a chief enabling factor for energy-intensive sectors.?
• Policy mandates are key to drive the growth in demand for greener products and services and drive down green price premium.?

Crucial technologies to decarbonise hard-to-abate sectors can reach tipping points in this decade, but only if a critical mass of first projects get off the ground by 2030, with support from industry leaders, their value chains, governments and financial institutions – a message that MPP CEO Faustine Delasalle will take to key events at the COP28 summit in Dubai, including the Climate Action Innovation Zone where she will be speaking on December 4th. To get CO2 emissions down by 2030 and make the global goal of net zero by 2050 viable in MPP’s seven hard-to-abate sectors, Final Investment Decisions on first projects are required within 2-3 years.???

Fig 1. Historic and feasible future emissions in Gt CO2 equivalent by sector, Scope 1 & 2?

2. Concrete and cement

Transition strategy co-developed with industry sets real-economy targets for action in this decade????

Regional pathways are key for localised industries producing 8% of global CO2 emissions????

WITH GLOBAL DEMAND of 14 billion cubic metres in 20202, concrete is the world’s most widely used material after water. A critical element for the world’s buildings, transport and other infrastructure, the concrete and cement industry emits about 2.6 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 per year.??

Demand for concrete and cement is forecast to continue growing strongly, driven by population growth and economic development in the Global South. Production increased by 30% in the decade to 2020, and on current trends will grow by 14% in the decade to 2030, and a further 22% to 2050.??

More than a third of sectoral emissions from clinker-making are caused by burning fossil fuels in rotary kilns at temperatures of 1,450°C for the mineralogical transformation of limestone.?

Arguably the hardest-to-abate of MPP’s seven sectors, challenges for decarbonisation include:???

• Implementing regional decarbonisation pathways combines reducing demand through improved resource efficiency, adoption of alternative chemistries and supplementary cementitious materials, switching to biogenic waste, and carbon capture?
• Emissions-intensive clinker – the process of calcifying limestone and clay at high temperatures to make clinker, a binding material in cement products – contributes 88% of CO2 emissions from concrete production, or 53% of the sector’s overall emissions?
• Localised markets – with limited scope for relocation, production is highly dependent on local resources and infrastructure: most concrete is made within 50 km of the location of use, and most cement within 250 km.??

MPP’s Concrete and Cement Transition Strategy, co-developed with industry, completes a suite of seven 1.5°C-aligned sector strategies from MPP to decarbonise heavy industry and transport. The report, due for release on Monday, December 4, will inform decision-makers in both public and private sectors about the nature, timing, cost, and scale of actions required in this decade to make the global goal of net zero emissions viable by 2050.??

“The year 2050 is just one investment cycle away, given the industry’s long-lasting capital assets. This report moves from strategic thinking to near-term milestones, recommending actions for industry, buyers, policymakers, and financial institutions to unlock the transition in this decade” -- La?titia de Villepin, MPP cement and concrete lead??

Fig 2. Clinker-making generates 88% of emissions from concrete production (Scope 1 & 2)

3. COP 28 / Marrakech Partnership?

MPP to co-convene deep-dive on green market instruments for steel?

Implementation Lab to take place on December 5?

TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER to emerging economies, options to decarbonise iron ore and supply chains, and the role of market-making mechanisms to unlock demand for greener steel will top the agenda for discussion at the COP28 Implementation Lab on industrial decarbonisation in Dubai on December 5.??

?Key considerations:??

• Local context will determine relevant green market instruments – In India, the scale of government-driven construction means green public sector procurement can significantly help decarbonise steel and other high-emitting materials for new infrastructure.??
• Harmonisation of green standards, definitions, and certification systems at the multilateral level will enable more international trade in green iron, steel, and other industrial goods.?
• Decarbonising steel and other heavy industries will require significant investment across their wider value chains (Fig. 3). New forms of cross-value chain collaboration are key to unlocking this investment and enabling deep decarbonisation of these industries.?

Hosted by the Marrakech Partnership and the UN Climate Change High-Level Champions, the roundtable discussion will explore the potential role for green market instruments to consolidate demand and underpin investment in low- and near-zero emissions steel, with a spotlight on India.??

“Emerging economies will be critical to the global industry transition – the pipeline of additional coal-based blast furnace capacity planned in India exceeds the capacity of Europe’s entire existing blast furnace fleet.” -- Alasdair Graham, Metals Lead at the Mission Possible Partnership & Head of Industry at the Energy Transitions Commission?

Implementation Labs aspire to concentrate the minds of policymakers, business leaders, investors, and philanthropists on practical action for climate mitigation and adaptation. By highlighting obstacles to market formation for low-emissions steel, the roundtable will explore opportunities for first movers, the key role of policy action, and practical tools for market-making.??

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Fig 3. Energy and technology: capital investment costs for net zero-aligned steel

The steel session is convened by Climate Catalyst, The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) and MPP. The panel of experts will include Alasdair Graham (ETC/MPP), Sakshi Balani (Climate Catalyst), Paul Bodnar (Bezos Earth Fund) and Arup Nath Mullick (TERI). Further details including a roster of events at the COP28 Global Climate Action Hub can be found here.?

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