In this issue: COP28 + UN + MPP = Industrial Transition Accelerator

Signal from MPP | Issue No. 2312-11

In this issue: New Industrial Transition Accelerator – COP28, UN and Bloomberg back MPP to host Secretariat; Concrete and Cement – new sector strategy launched; Climate Champions round-up – the billion-dollar procurement pledge and more.

IT WAS A MEMORABLE COP, the first one to put the question of the transition away from all fossil fuels at the centre of the global climate agenda. We’re happy to report that MPP will be at the sharp end of delivering on that?ambition as host and secretariat of the Industrial Transition Accelerator (ITA). Backed by $30M from Bloomberg Philanthropies and the COP28 Presidency, the ITA will turbocharge implementation of deep decarbonisation solutions across heavy industry and transport sectors, which represent about 30% of energy-related emissions.

The ITA will build on MPP sector transition strategies to inform collaboration between industry, finance and policy to progress decarbonisation across the globe. MPP’s new Concrete and Cement transition strategy, co-developed with leading producers, is the last in a series of industry-backed reports which have set an ambitious vision for the transition of heavy-emitting sectors. This seventh industry strategy has now been published by MPP, and we’re encouraged by acknowledgements from major companies including Cemex, Heidelberg and Holcim.

Industry leadership and effective collaboration spanning business, finance, and policy are key to unlocking commercial-scale deep decarbonisation projects in the harder-to-abate sectors. MPP’s experience supporting a cohort of 25+ projects in the US in the past 12 months demonstrates that, even post Inflation Reduction Act, industry collaboration to scale-up clean energy supply and premium offtake demand remains key to enable investment.?

A billion-dollar green public procurement pledge from COP28 led by the governments of Canada, Germany, UK and US is among 29 Breakthrough Agenda priorities announced in Dubai. As a model for the kind of collaboration we need between governments and non-state actors, we congratulate our friends at the UN Climate Champions, First Movers’ Coalition, and many other partners whose work supports our mission to incubate new green value chains.

As always, your comments and feedback are gratefully received. Please don’t hesitate to share this newsletter with colleagues in the unfolding energy and materials transition.

Mission Possible Partnership is?a movement of climate leaders in business and civil society driving industrial decarbonisation across the entire value chain of the world’s highest-emitting sectors: aluminium, cement, chemicals, steel; aviation, shipping, and trucking. We’re charting the inventive steps and radical collaboration to enable commercial-scale First Projects in this decisive decade. Please comment, send feedback or message us with insights.

1.???? Industrial Transition Accelerator

COP28 Presidency, United Nations and Bloomberg launch Industrial Transition Accelerator for heavy-emitting industries? ?

MPP hosting new Secretariat tackling the critical challenges to unlock decarbonisation projects

THE WORLD’S MOST AMBITIOUS industrial decarbonisation effort to date was launched on December 2 by COP28 President Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell, UN Secretary-General’s Special Envoy on Climate Ambition and Solutions Michael R. Bloomberg, UN Secretary-General’s Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance Mark Carney, and MPP CEO Faustine Delasalle. The ITA Secretariat, hosted by MPP, brings global industry leaders together with finance players and policymakers to unlock investment and rapidly scale delivery of projects needed to cut emissions, consistent with credible 2030 1.5°C-aligned targets. MPP’s CEO will serve as the ITA’s Executive Director.

“We have clarity on what we need to do and where we need to be by 2030 to decarbonise the heavy emitting sectors in line with the Paris Agreement. But time is not on our side, and the pipeline of necessary near-zero projects is falling short because industry can’t do it alone. The ITA gives us the breadth and scale to create a flywheel of collaboration that can create the exponential change that we need. I am thrilled to see the COP28 Presidency and UN prioritising this challenge and delighted that MPP is hosting the secretariat.” -- Faustine Delasalle, Chief Executive Officer of the Mission Possible Partnership and Executive Director of the ITA Secretariat.

Backed by $30 million from the COP28 Presidency and Bloomberg Philanthropies, the ITA will tackle critical technical, policy, and financing barriers to investment, by boosting pre-existing efforts and initiatives, and will offer practical support to partner countries to drive implementation and significantly expand the number of decarbonisation projects to reach Final Investment Decision (FID) over the next 2-3 years.

Progress will be measured by number of projects under construction by 2025 and emissions reductions achieved by 2030, relative to the credible net zero pathways developed by the International Energy Agency and MPP. The ITA Secretariat calculates that heavy-emitting sub-sectors, including aluminium, aviation, cement, chemicals, shipping, steel, and parts of the energy supply chain could plausibly cut emissions by 5.7GT (over a third of current emissions) by 2030 to reach a 1.5°C-aligned pathway.

Analysis from MPP shows that delivering such global emissions reductions will require 300 sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plants, 200 ships using zero-emissions fuel, 70 zero-emissions steel plants, 40 new low-carbon smelting and refinery plants and over 40 commercial-scale carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS) plants. This critical mass of projects must become operational by 2030, and must therefore reach FID by 2025-2026.

“These industries are currently in transition traps: they know what they need to do, but struggle to get the investment they need to meaningfully cut emissions. The Industrial Transition Accelerator will go where the emissions are...bringing new technologies to maturity, dismantling regulatory barriers and boosting the demand for sustainable products.” -- Mark Carney, UN Secretary-General’s Special Envoy on Climate Action and co-chair, Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero

The ITA will support projects that directly contribute to decarbonising industry by significantly increasing demand for green products, advocating for a supportive policy environment and developing financial instruments to fund the transition in heavy-emitting sectors.

It will invite participation from leading companies and sector initiatives, working in partnership with the financial sector and key governments. Participating companies will be requested to set Paris-aligned net zero targets, develop transition plans within a credible third-party framework, demonstrate deployment of capital and technology, and report emissions against targets through key disclosure initiatives such as partners of Net Zero Data Public Utility (NZDPU) integrated with the UNFCCC Global Climate Action Portal (GCAP).

Recognising the importance of cooperation with national governments, the ITA will invite governments to engage with its efforts through participation in multi-stakeholder workstreams and high-level policy dialogues.

“We welcome a historic new era of energy action. We have presented solutions to drive a full scale and full speed transition of the global energy system, and I welcome all efforts and collaboration that will drive deep emissions cuts and improved efficiencies. Today’s historic announcement, across the entire energy ecosystem is something to be welcomed and celebrated, but we must recognise this is a first step towards a transformation that we all require.” -- COP28 President Dr. Al Jaber.

Without rapid action, carbon emissions from harder-to-abate heavy industry and transport – and parts of the energy supply chain – are likely to increase by more than 30% by 2050.

MPP is in the process of building out a high calibre team in service of the ITA. See our careers page and LinkedIn page for more details.

2. Concrete and Cement

Industry rallies around ‘real-world’ roadmap towards net zero emissions

Cost increase for typical building could be limited to three percent

TEN OF THE WORLD’S LARGEST cement producers – including Heidelberg, Cemex and Holcim – are among the industry players rallying behind MPP's new concrete and cement transition strategy. The seventh harder-to-abate sector roadmap from MPP, published to coincide with COP28, estimates that total costs of construction would rise by only 3% for a typical building, despite the high costs of decarbonising cement production processes.

Key findings:

• Global demand forecast to rise by 50% by 2050, with major growth expected in emerging and developing markets.
• Action in this decade can improve clinker-binder ratio in concrete production from current 0.63 to 0.54-0.58, yielding early CO2 emissions reduction at low cost.
• Carbon capture and storage technologies are key enabler to further reduce emissions: planning consents and ‘shovels-in-ground' required for CO? transport and storage infrastructure in the next years to enable first plants to be up and running by 2030.
• Green public procurement can drive investment in a green cement supply chain, given the weight of public demand in the infrastructure and building sectors.

“Heidelberg Materials welcomes the MPP’s Transition Strategy for Cement and Concrete, which builds on the industry’s existing and robust decarbonization roadmap towards 2050. It emphasises the need for strong collaboration of all actors along our value chain and underscores the essential policy levers that are crucial for assisting us on our path to achieving net-zero emissions” -- Dr. Dominik von Achten, CEO Heidelberg Materials AG

Cement is the world’s most widely used material after water, generating 8% of global CO2 emissions – more than aviation and shipping combined. Collective acknowledgement for Making Net Zero Concrete and Cement Possible spans a wide array of leading companies and other stakeholders across the concrete value chain, including architects and construction industry players.

Fig 1. The solutions: a more efficient use of concrete combined with a reduction, elimination or capture of both process and energy emissions

The report identifies three key levers to reduce emissions by 2050. First, the combination of fuel-switching, clean power supply and rapid roll-out of CCUS could reduce emissions by up to 53%. A further 25% could be achieved by deploying Supplementary Cementing Materials (SCMs) in place of clinker, and development of alternative lower-emissions chemistries. Third, demand-side efficiency improvements in building design and construction could reduce volumes of concrete, trimming emissions by up to 22% without compromising safety or durability.?

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Fig 2 Key milestones for reaching net zero by 2050

Carbon Capture and Storage has the largest emissions saving potential of available technologies, but the current project pipeline falls far short of what is required. We calculate that, by 2030, the industry will require 33-45 new CCUS plants with annual capacity of 80 megatonnes (Mt) of CO2 captured in operation for the industry to be on a Paris-aligned trajectory. New data from MPP’s tracking of green industrial projects, released at COP28, shows a current tally of 15 CCUS plants total that have reached Final Investment Decision or are already in operation.?

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Fig 3. Capital Investment and Resource Requirements by category, 2022-2050

Making Net Zero Concrete and Cement Possible calls for creating an enabling policy and market environment for low-carbon technologies in different regions, in an industry where production and markets are highly localised. The report is the seventh harder-to-abate sector strategy developed by the Mission Possible Partnership, completing a body of work endorsed by more than 200 industry players and counting, which has already informed government strategies, target-setting mechanisms, and financial players among others.??

3. UN Climate Champions Breakthrough announcements

Advanced and developing economies partner to transform heavy industry

Major announcements on public procurement, hydrogen trade and green steel standards at COP28

A BILLION-DOLLAR PLEDGE to fund public procurement of low emissions steel, concrete and cement is among the highest-profile of multiple “breakthrough country and industry partnerships to grow global markets for low-carbon industrial products” announced by the UN Climate Champions at COP28’s Energy and Industry Day.

The Green Public Procurement Pledge led by Canada, Germany, UK and US will build on 29 Breakthrough Agenda Priority Actions – launched by COP28 President Dr. Sultan Al Jaber at the World Climate Action Summit – supported by a coalition of governments representing 60 percent of global economic output, including Egypt, France, India, Morocco and the UAE.

New data from the First Movers Coalition , an alliance of 95 corporates and 13 governments representing 120 purchase commitments worth an $15 billion per year, indicates that this demand for emerging climate technologies would deliver annual emissions reductions in hard-to-abate sectors of 29 million tonnes (Mt) CO2e by 2030.

Industry day announcements also included:

• The Declaration of Intent on certification for hydrogen, co-led by Germany, Namibia and the UAE, aspires to unlock cross-border trade for renewable and low carbon hydrogen.
• Global principles for green steel standards were backed by leading standards-setting bodies and industry associations, setting a precedent for other industries where green standards are still work in progress.
• The Breakthrough Agenda launched workstreams on the built environment, co-led by the governments of France and Morocco, and a Cement & Concrete Breakthrough, co-led by the governments of Canada and UAE. By December 6, these initiatives were backed by backed by 33 countries.
• Fast-tracking a portfolio of ‘lighthouse’ projects for clean hydrogen to final investment decisions within two years was among the responses from COP28 to the recent Breakthrough Agenda Report co-authored by the International Energy Agency, International Renewable Energy Agency and the UN High-Level Champions.

?“We are beginning to see the kinds of breakthroughs we need to keep 1.5C in reach. Breakthroughs not only in technology but in how civil society expertise, government policy, private investment and international assistance can come together to achieve a just transition for high emitting industries that drives down global emissions and drives forward sustainable development across the global South” -- Dr Mahmoud Mohieldin, UN Climate Change High-Level Champion

Mission Possible Partnership is?a movement of climate leaders in business and civil society driving industrial decarbonisation across the entire value chain of the world’s highest-emitting sectors: aluminium, cement, chemicals, steel; aviation, shipping, and trucking. We’re charting the inventive steps and radical collaboration to enable commercial-scale deep decarbonisation projects in this decisive decade.