Issue #3: The End of Snow Days

Glaciers that froze thousands of years ago are melting. But they're more than a stark visual of climate change.

A video showcasing the retreat of Mer de Glace in Chamonix, France | From the sign marking the glacier's 1985 edge, descending the stark expanse of over 600 steps to reach the significantly receded ice flow today (July 2023), showcasing the rapid changes inflicted by climate change.

Hey, thanks for reading the third issue of Bayesian Thinking!

What is Bayesian Thinking? Read the boilerplate below the article.

To follow along, click the “Subscribe” button in the upper right corner above.

Watching ice slip away from the mountains is a problem for people who rely on snow to live. As someone who spends every season in the mountains climbing and skiing, I’m starting to notice and adapt to the shifting winter season.

Of course, I’m not alone. For ski resorts in the Alps, the situation is becoming dire.

“We had to admit that 20 years would be too optimistic,” says Mr. Erard. The chairlifts, some of them 40 years old, were repaired rather than replaced. “That’s when we became aware that the end of Alpine skiing for us would come probably between 2030 and 2040.” Mr. Erard gradually broke the news to co-workers and business partners before making the decision public in 2021.

?? Read More: Alps Ski Resorts Brace for a Future With Less Snow in the Wall Street Journal by Margherita Stancati

Over the last 50?years, the Alps experienced a 5.6% reduction per decade in snow cover duration, according to researchers from the Università degli Studi di Padova (UNIPD) / University of Padua and the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council in Bologna. Scientists are finding that the duration of snowpack cover is currently about 30 days less than the mean over the last six centuries.?

In the past few years, the Mont Blanc region and other monitored areas have experienced a notable rise in rockfalls at various elevations. This has led to boulders obstructing highways and the destruction of homes. This raises an urgent question: Is the Alpine habitat facing a threat to its stability?

There are endless examples of these statistics in the Alps and other high mountain ranges globally. Resort seasons are shrinking, snowfall is unpredictable, and tourism must adapt to new models to keep visitors safe with alternative ways to explore among peaks and valleys.

On the classic climbing route, the Cosmiques Arete, on the south face of Aiguille du Midi, a ridge in Chamonix, there was a heat wave at the end of August 2022 that led to a massive rockfall, a leading indicator of permafrost deterioration.

Luckily, no one was injured, but shifts in the mountain landscape create hazardous conditions, especially for climbers.

Glacial collapse on the Marmolada peak: A sobering reminder of the increasing dangers in the alpine regions, with lives lost and several injured amid the shifting climate.

Mer de Glace, France’s largest glacier, is also shrinking. As I wrote recently, Mer de Glace and the Alps’ 5,000 glaciers, which formed over thousands of years, are all disappearing due to climate change.?

Unseasonably warm weather in Switzerland at the November 2022 Alpine Swiss Ski World Cup in Zermatt-Cervinia canceled the men’s downhill races due to a lack of snow and all of the women's races. The organizers reported heavy rainfall at altitudes above 3,000 meters (10,000 feet) and dangerously soft snow on the lower section of the course.?

Just as striking as the situation in the Alps is what’s happening in California. In March 2023, more than 20 inches of snow fell at Mammoth Mountain in 24 hours, burying homes and cars and closing ski resorts, where wind gusts were reported as high as 98 mph. The surge of snow shifted the season, which meant skiers could hit the slopes in July.?

During the Winter '22-'23 season, Mammoth Mountain in California experienced exceptional snowfall, with the summit at 11,053 feet receiving over 900 inches, amounting to 75 feet of snow.

Resorts and hotels have no choice but to adapt.?

Fai della Paganella, a small ski resort in Italy’s Dolomites mountain range, has started opening its chairlifts in the summer for mountain bikers, as WIRED reported. In fact, since 2018, as the ski season has shortened, Paganella has attracted more tourists in the summer than in the winter.?

Other resorts are putting out artificial snow, which creates another climate issue with the high amount of water and energy needed for the process. Setting up tracks for mountain bikers and hikers and manufacturing snow, however, can't solve the problem.

Early snowfall in the Alps hints at a promising year ahead, potentially outshining the awful ski conditions of the last two years. This is welcome news, particularly for backcountry enthusiasts and powder seekers. For climbers, the colder months may offer the safest conditions, as snow and ice help to solidify the terrain.

The author skiing in the Mont Blanc Massif before a COVID-shorted winter 2020 season, when conditions were "ok."

We must learn to adapt to climate change’s warmer, wetter winters. How are you rethinking your time in the mountains?

What is Bayesian Thinking?

Each of us has a spectrum of beliefs across many topics and perspectives. From 18th-century British philosopher Thomas Bayes, Bayesian Thinking is a compass guiding us closer to the truth.

Bayesian theory includes:

1) Refrain from attributing absolute certainty to any belief.

2) Remain open to adjusting convictions based on new evidence.

With this mindset, I’ll share my take on current events, impactful ideas, and sustainability, in this bi-monthly LinkedIn newsletter.

Why sustainability? At work, I spend my time helping companies engage stakeholders in order to reach Net Zero with AWorld. On weekends, you’ll find me climbing around the Alps, maybe with a camera or drone in tow.

Here's some more about me and the things I do.

Amid the information age, I’m grateful for the technology that lets us connect with people worldwide. Hopefully, tech will also help solve the climate crisis.

-Rick