Issue 27: ? Time is a Flat Cycle ??
In this Issue:
? News of the Week ??
? The Boom and Bust Cycles of Web3: Learning from Past Failures ??
? The Bitcoin 16-Year Cycle: Lessons from the Internet Bubble ??
? From Rekt to Rescued with ClaimRecov ∞
News of the Week ??
The Boom & Bust Cycles of Web3: Learning from Past Failures ??
Web3 has seen its share of early failures. Projects like Seattle Computer Products, Friendster, and Palm blazed trails but ultimately faltered. Their innovations laid the groundwork for giants like Microsoft, Google, and Meta, whose combined market cap now exceeds $7 trillion. The lesson? The second mouse often gets the cheese.
Web3’s initial boom was marked by ambitious projects that couldn't sustain long-term value. However, these early efforts provided invaluable lessons. For instance, Tesla didn't invent the electric car; GM did. Similarly, Visa didn't create the first credit card; Diner's Club did. These pioneers stumbled, but their innovations paved the way for more refined, successful iterations.
The same applies to Web3. Early coins and communities faced significant challenges, but the current generation is learning from these missteps. Today's projects are more resilient, leveraging improved technology and a better understanding of market dynamics. They iterate faster, avoid past pitfalls, and are better positioned to capture value.
Apple’s approach exemplifies this "second mouse" strategy. They didn’t rush to be the first in AI but waited to refine and perfect it, resulting in Apple Intelligence. This method of improving existing technology, rather than inventing from scratch, has proven immensely profitable. Apple’s integration of AI into its ecosystem, focusing on user experience and reliability, showcases how learning from the past leads to better outcomes.
In Web3, this means new coins and communities are built with more robust foundations. They understand the importance of security, usability, and community trust. They aim to create sustainable ecosystems rather than quick wins. This second wave of Web3 projects is poised to achieve what their predecessors could not: lasting success and substantial returns.
Innovation: The Second Mouse Strategy ?? ??
Innovation is often seen as the driving force behind technological progress, but disruptive innovation—the kind that marks a “before” and “after” in our lives—can be detrimental to shareholder value. Consider some innovators that changed our lives: Seattle Computer Products, Xerox PARC, Palm, Netscape, Friendster, Blackberry, Alta Vista, and Nokia. Their combined market capitalization is a mere $21 billion, only because Blackberry and Nokia still exist. In contrast, companies that capitalized on their innovations—Microsoft, Apple, Google, and Meta—boast a combined market capitalization of over $7 trillion. The second mouse often gets the cheese.
Tesla didn’t invent the consumer electric car, GM did. Visa didn’t invent the credit card, Diner’s Club did. McDonald’s didn’t invent fast-food hamburgers, White Castle did. Coca-Cola didn’t invent soda, Dr. Pepper did. Apple is another second mouse, mastering and refining ideas first pioneered by others. Their success lies not in being the first but in being the best at iteration and execution.
AI and Apple Intelligence ? ??
“AI” has experienced a brand equity implosion similar to that of the Supreme Court, Twitter, and elite colleges. The promise of AI to either save or doom humanity has yet to materialize. Instead, it has brought IP theft, hallucinations, and constant media catastrophizing. Apple’s rebranding to “Apple Intelligence” is a strategic masterstroke, emphasizing user-friendly, reliable, and elegantly designed AI. While competitors rushed to market with flawed AI products, Apple’s methodical approach ensures they deliver quality.
Apple’s strategy of being “behind” in AI has its merits. The tech press criticized Apple for lagging in AI advancements while simultaneously reporting on the missteps of its rivals. Apple focuses on improving existing technologies rather than inventing new ones from scratch, making incremental advancements that enhance user experience and reliability.
When Apple introduced Siri in 2011, it was ahead of its time, but it failed to meet expectations. Alexa and Google Assistant surpassed Siri in functionality, but even they have not been revolutionary. Apple's cautious approach means they avoid the pitfalls of early adopters. The upcoming Apple Intelligence aims to deliver on promises made over a decade ago, integrating AI seamlessly into the Apple ecosystem.
Contextual Intelligence ??
Generative AI has been the buzzword since ChatGPT launched, but contextual AI is where the real power lies. AI that understands user context—personal data, habits, and preferences—will be more impactful than a general-purpose AI. Apple's integration of AI with its ecosystem gives it a unique advantage. Features like Apple Memories, which deliver personalized and emotionally resonant content, showcase the potential of contextual AI.
Apple Intelligence will enhance these capabilities, using AI to manage personal information and interactions across devices. This integration will create a more intuitive and personalized user experience, solidifying Apple’s position as the leader in consumer technology.
Vertical Integration & Future Prospects ??
Apple’s vertical integration allows it to ensure that its devices and software work seamlessly together. This approach contrasts with competitors like Alphabet, which struggle with fragmentation across various devices and platforms. Apple's control over its hardware and software ecosystem enables it to deliver a consistent and superior user experience.
The future of AI will see real winners and losers emerge, with Apple holding a strong position due to its second mouse strategy and vertical integration. As AI technology continues to evolve, Apple’s cautious yet innovative approach will likely yield significant returns.
Time is a Flat Cycle ??
The boom and bust cycles of Web3 and the broader tech industry highlight the importance of learning from past failures. Early innovators may not always succeed, but they lay the groundwork for future successes. By iterating on existing technologies and focusing on user experience, companies like Apple demonstrate that being the second mouse often leads to the most significant rewards. The key to lasting success lies not in being first but in being the best at adapting and improving upon the innovations of others.
Bitcoin's 16-Year Cycle: Lessons from an Internet Bubble ??
领英推荐
Bitcoin is famous for its 4-year cycles, characterized by a 3-year uptrend followed by a 1-year downtrend. But could there be a bigger, 16-year cycle at play, mirroring the adoption patterns of past technologies like the internet? Let’s explore this theory and its implications for Bitcoin’s future.
The 4-Year Cycle ?
Bitcoin’s 4-year cycles are well-documented, featuring extended bull markets and brief bear markets. These cycles have shown remarkable consistency, attracting significant market attention.
The DOTCOM Cycle Comparison ??
The structure of Bitcoin’s cycles bears a striking resemblance to the DOTCOM cycle of the S&P 500, which began around 1986 with Microsoft’s IPO. Both cycles feature prolonged bull markets followed by short bear markets. The DOTCOM cycle highlights how new technologies, such as personal computers and the internet, fundamentally change society. Similarly, Bitcoin is in its early adoption phase, poised to become indispensable in the future.
The Potential 16-Year Cycle ?
The DOTCOM cycle suggests that after several bull cycles, a prolonged bear market can occur. Microsoft, for example, peaked in 2000 and took 15 years to surpass its previous high. If Bitcoin follows a similar path, it could experience a multi-year bear market after its next peak, potentially around 2025.
Spotting Market Tops ?? ??
Traders can use Bitcoin funding rates to gauge market sentiment. Negative funding rates in a bull market indicate upward price trends, while positive rates in a bear market signal declines. Timing is also crucial; breaking below a swing-low during a topping period often suggests a cycle peak.
Beyond Cycles ??
Economic Influences External factors, like the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, significantly impact Bitcoin prices. The rise of memes and cheap alternative chains such as SOL. Although don't discount Oridinals and their ability to suck liquidity out of the market, no matter the cycle phase. Also, must we remember how the massive money printing in 2020 fueled risk appetites, driving Bitcoin’s price up. When the printing stopped in 2022, Bitcoin entered a decline. These economic conditions will continue to influence Bitcoin’s cycles.
TIme is a Flat Cycle ? ??
Understanding Bitcoin’s potential 16-year cycle, informed by past technological adoption patterns, provides valuable insights for predicting future price movements. As Bitcoin matures, learning from the past can help navigate its boom and bust cycles, ensuring smarter investment decisions.
From Rekt to Rescued with ClaimRecov ∞
The digital age, while bringing numerous opportunities, has also made us vulnerable to new threats. For those who have faced significant financial losses, the journey to recovery is daunting. But with firms like ClaimRecov , there is hope. Their expertise, dedication, and commitment to client success make them a beacon of hope for those financially shipwrecked. They represent a lighthouse in the storm, guiding the financially shipwrecked back to safety and empowering them to navigate the waters of finance with renewed confidence.
For more detailed information on their services and to get in touch with ClaimRecov, visit their website at https://claimrecov.com/ftx/?src=Garvin
?? Web3 Careers
Thanks for reading! ??
See you next week!
– Nick ∞
freelancer
1 个月aicryptoregs.com AI fixes this Web3Weekly issue covers cycles.
We’re in the digital community and we create immersive experiences.
5 个月Well said!
Founder @ Founders Hub Network | Startup Whisperer
5 个月Appreciate you taking the time to curate and share this, Nick G.